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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 26, 2020

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DAY 331 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/27/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 60.65°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 42.56°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 51.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.523 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 547 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.80 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 238 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.23 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 45 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-27 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	331	45	60.65006	42.56006	51.60506	0.0099999999999909	0.0099999999999909	0.79	0.79999999999999	F	F	28.65006	546.65006	238	460.23272928919	0.52274800836046	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	46.49	46.49	46.49	0.0001	0.0001	0.79	0.7901	F	F	14.49	532.49	239	460.75487221801	0.089881442509523	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.93	50.35	58.64	0.0059	0.0059	0.79	0.7959	F	F	34.93	552.93	239	460.75487221801	0.75081407864412	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.87	46.51	56.69	0.0068	0.0068	0.79	0.7968	F	F	34.87	552.87	239	460.75487221801	0.74893092146963	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	65.85	47.4	56.625	0.0107	0.0107	0.79	0.8007	F	F	33.85	551.85	239	460.75487221801	0.71580296638649	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.7	47.26	56.98	0.0106	0.0106	0.79	0.8006	F	F	34.7	543.7	238	460.23272928919	0.7435547489169	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.46	45.15	55.805	0.0025	0.0125	0.79	0.8025	F	F	34.46	560.46	238	460.23272928919	0.73586412853294	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.44	46.88	56.66	0.0055	0.0155	0.79	0.8055	F	F	34.44	560.44	238	460.23272928919	0.73521798780293	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.85	47.78	57.315	0.002	0.012	0.79	0.802	F	F	34.85	560.85	238	460.23272928919	0.74830153586037	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.71	47.95	57.33	0.0018	0.0118	0.79	0.8018	F	F	34.71	560.71	238	460.23272928919	0.74387264407256	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.95	47.83	57.39	0.0005	0.0105	0.79	0.8005	F	F	34.95	560.95	238	460.23272928919	0.75144012671455	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.69	48.31	58	0.0009	0.0109	0.79	0.8009	F	F	35.69	553.69	238	460.23272928919	0.77400460210406	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	64.04	48.42	56.23	0.0009	0.0209	0.79	0.8109	F	F	32.04	564.04	238	460.23272928919	0.65236733345112	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.1	48.26	58.18	0.0007	0.0107	0.79	0.8007	F	F	36.1	568.1	238	460.23272928919	0.78599127657472	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 11:50:54	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.39	48.26	58.325	0.0004	0.0104	0.79	0.8004	F	F	36.39	569.39	238	460.23272928919	0.79424194231726	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.2	48.1	58.15	0.0006	0.0106	0.79	0.8006	F	F	36.2	569.2	238	460.23272928919	0.78885781525206	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.71	48.23	57.97	0.001	0.011	0.79	0.801	F	F	35.71	567.71	238	460.23272928919	0.77459796972583	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-23 23:51:20	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.57	48.41	58.49	0.0008	0.0008	0.8	0.8008	F	F	36.57	578.57	238	460.23272928919	0.79926691112351	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	64.93	48.35	56.64	0.0013	0.0113	0.8	0.8113	F	F	32.93	574.93	238	460.23272928919	0.68423925784522	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-23 15:58:11	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.26	48.6	58.43	0.0002	0.0102	0.8	0.8102	F	F	36.26	577.26	238	460.23272928919	0.79056690479259	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	63.74	47.98	55.86	0.0013	0.0113	0.8	0.8113	F	F	31.74	573.74	238	460.23272928919	0.6413621462648	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	63.75	48.01	55.88	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	31.75	573.75	238	460.23272928919	0.64173094324778	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.77	47.58	58.175	0.0013	0.0013	0.8	0.8013	F	F	36.77	576.77	238	460.23272928919	0.80476312174106	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.34	46.17	56.755	0.0015	0.0015	0.79	0.7915	F	F	35.34	565.34	238	460.23272928919	0.76347906527682	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.25	44.51	56.38	0.0013	0.0013	0.8	0.8013	F	F	36.25	584.25	238	460.23272928919	0.79028262202321	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.25	45.8	56.525	0.0011	0.0011	0.8	0.8011	F	F	35.25	587.25	238	460.23272928919	0.76072960842137	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-22 12:04:32	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.9	45.41	56.655	0.0018	0.0018	0.8	0.8018	F	F	35.9	581.9	238	460.23272928919	0.78019086047567	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.9	45.39	56.645	0.0018	0.0018	0.81	0.8118	F	F	35.9	577.9	238	460.23272928919	0.78019086047567	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.95	45.19	56.57	0.0018	0.0018	0.81	0.8118	F	F	35.95	581.95	238	460.23272928919	0.78164934832642	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	69.56	45.82	57.69	0.0025	0.0025	0.1	0.1025	F	F	37.56	579.56	238	460.23272928919	0.82556672047925	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	69.57	45.81	57.69	0.0025	0.0025	0.42	0.4225	F	F	37.57	589.57	238	460.23272928919	0.82582071565467	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 15:51:47	FORECAST	2020	331	45	69.11	45.62	57.365	0.0025	0.0025	0.41	0.4125	F	F	37.11	588.11	238	460.23272928919	0.81389469104322	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.49	45.88	57.185	0.0012	0.0012	0.44	0.4412	F	F	36.49	584.49	238	460.23272928919	0.7970427287245	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.5	45.87	57.185	0.0012	0.0012	0.46	0.4612	F	F	36.5	586.5	238	460.23272928919	0.79732155209676	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.39	46.34	57.365	0.0012	0.0012	0.37	0.3712	F	F	36.39	590.39	238	460.23272928919	0.79424194231726	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-21 00:04:30	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.91	45.53	56.22	0.0012	0.0012	0.4	0.4012	F	F	34.91	580.91	238	460.23272928919	0.75018719419663	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.71	45.19	56.45	0	0	0.48	0.48	F	F	35.71	593.71	238	460.23272928919	0.77459796972583	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-20 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	69	45.54	57.27	0	0	0.43	0.43	F	F	37	594	238	460.23272928919	0.81096968963035	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-20 12:00:05	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.76	46.25	57.505	0.0015	0.0015	0.6	0.6015	F	F	36.76	587.76	238	460.23272928919	0.80449049745281	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-20 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	68.77	46.25	57.51	0.0015	0.0015	0.4	0.4015	F	F	36.77	588.77	238	460.23272928919	0.80476312174106	96	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	331	45	67.09	43.91	55.5	0.0015	0.0015	0.52	0.5215	F	F	35.09	592.09	238	460.23272928919	0.75579893527965	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.46	46.55	56.505	0.0012	0.0012	0.39	0.3912	F	F	34.46	587.46	238	460.23272928919	0.73586412853294	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	66.47	46.54	56.505	0.0012	0.0012	0.62	0.6212	F	F	34.47	600.47	238	460.23272928919	0.73618689782384	96	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-08-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	65.78	45.95	55.865	0.0007	0.0007	0.74	0.7407	F	F	33.78	592.78	238	460.23272928919	0.71345513911459	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	331	45	59.43	47.29	53.36	0.001	0.001	0.58	0.581	F	F	27.43	585.43	238	460.23272928919	0.47472531742206	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	331	45	48.81	47.29	48.05	0.001	0.001	0.6	0.601	F	F	16.81	571.81	238	460.23272928919	0.13304708795028	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	331	45	49.73	49.01	49.37	0.0005	0.0005	0.68	0.6805	F	F	17.73	578.73	238	460.23272928919	0.15358189729477	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L