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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 24, 2020

[ Sunday, August 23, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 25, 2020 ]

DAY 329 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/25/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.468
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 535

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 236
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-25 04:00:04OBSERVATION20203294359.4699845.1599852.314980000.820.82FF27.46998535.46998236459.18247210974 00.468006905644494 23415222.5DRYL
2020-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20203294349.5649.5649.5600.00090.00090.820.8209FF17.56525.56237459.7085984425800.167038851366419413415220DRYL
2020-08-24 11:50:54FORECAST20203294364.7349.5857.15500.00690.00690.820.8269FF32.73540.73237459.7085984425800.651633446998619433415225DRYL
2020-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20203294365.247.5656.3800.01120.01120.820.8312FF33.2541.2237459.7085984425800.667032096141989433415225DRYL
2020-08-24 04:00:06FORECAST20203294364.4448.7156.57500.00970.00970.820.8297FF32.44540.44237459.7085984425800.64200398057649433415225DRYL
2020-08-23 23:51:20FORECAST20203294365.6847.5656.6200.00490.01490.820.8349FF33.68548.68236459.1824721097400.682472862787479433415225DRYL
2020-08-23 20:00:03FORECAST20203294366.1546.0756.1100.00730.01730.820.8373FF34.15549.15236459.1824721097400.697290866670029433415225DRYL
2020-08-23 15:58:10FORECAST20203294365.1146.4455.77500.0050.0150.820.835FF33.11548.11236459.1824721097400.664104146258679433415225DRYL
2020-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20203294365.7246.9356.32500.0050.0150.820.835FF33.72548.72236459.1824721097400.68374586034839433415225DRYL
2020-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20203294366.4847.5156.99500.00250.01250.820.8325FF34.48549.48236459.1824721097400.707506247010749443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20203294366.8747.557.18500.00180.01180.820.8318FF34.87546.87236459.1824721097400.71936832123069443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20203294366.3149.2557.7800.00230.00230.820.8223FF34.31542.31236459.1824721097400.702263745063399443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20203294366.1748.3957.2800.00210.01210.820.8321FF34.17560.17236459.1824721097400.697914506097149433415225DRYL
2020-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20203294366.2448.3257.2800.00210.01210.820.8321FF34.24560.24236459.1824721097400.700092690661679443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-22 12:04:32FORECAST20203294365.647.2856.4400.00150.01150.820.8315FF33.6558.6236459.1824721097400.679920401064749433415225DRYL
2020-08-22 08:00:05FORECAST20203294365.5647.9456.7500.0010.0210.820.841FF33.56554.56236459.1824721097400.678640962221969433415225DRYL
2020-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20203294364.5747.1655.86500.00090.02090.820.8409FF32.57557.57236459.1824721097400.646332246509999433415225DRYL
2020-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20203294363.4745.9854.72500.00260.04260.090.1326FF31.47551.47236459.1824721097400.609165413265529433415225DRYL
2020-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20203294363.6746.154.88500.00240.03240.420.4524FF31.67560.67236459.1824721097400.616009077235479433415225DRYL
2020-08-21 15:51:47FORECAST20203294362.945.3554.12500.0010.0210.420.441FF30.9559.9236459.1824721097400.589481518245229433415225DRYL
2020-08-21 12:00:04FORECAST20203294358.5746.1752.37000.050.420.47FF26.57555.57236459.1824721097400.436165070201159423415222.5DRYL
2020-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20203294358.5946.1852.385000.060.430.49FF26.59557.59236459.1824721097400.436868981091939423415222.5DRYL
2020-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20203294365.4846.4555.96500.00020.06020.340.4002FF33.48561.48236459.1824721097400.676075732442189433415225DRYL
2020-08-21 00:04:30FORECAST20203294366.3746.4856.42500.00040.05040.380.4304FF34.37554.37236459.1824721097400.704118927453699443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20203294367.8945.3456.61500.00090.04090.470.5109FF35.89566.89236459.1824721097400.749246783332029443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-20 16:00:04FORECAST20203294366.2846.1856.2300.00090.04090.420.4609FF34.28566.28236459.1824721097400.701334170196199443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-20 12:00:04FORECAST20203294364.2346.4255.32500.00110.04110.590.6311FF32.23560.23236459.1824721097400.63497368321299433415225DRYL
2020-08-20 08:00:03FORECAST20203294364.2446.4355.33500.00110.03110.40.4311FF32.24561.24236459.1824721097400.635309511657099433415225DRYL
2020-08-20 04:00:08FORECAST20203294364.8347.0455.93500.00110.04110.510.5511FF32.83567.83236459.1824721097400.654931805204959433415225DRYL
2020-08-20 00:00:03FORECAST20203294367.9146.9257.41500.00050.04050.380.4205FF35.91559.91236459.1824721097400.74981535217769443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-19 20:00:03FORECAST20203294367.9246.9157.41500.00050.03050.620.6505FF35.92572.92236459.1824721097400.750099380365829443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-19 16:00:03FORECAST20203294366.5144.7355.6200.00050.03050.740.7705FF34.51569.51236459.1824721097400.708426926842739443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20203294364.7848.656.6900.00490.02490.590.6149FF32.78563.78236459.1824721097400.65328407758739433415225DRYL
2020-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20203294364.848.6356.71500.00490.02490.610.6349FF32.8560.8236459.1824721097400.653943518544539433415225DRYL
2020-08-19 04:00:03FORECAST20203294370.2748.9459.60500.00130.05130.660.7113FF38.27566.27236459.1824721097400.811882566991819443415155DRYH
2020-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20203294361.7843.7152.74500.00190.03190.690.7219FF29.78543.78236459.1824721097400.550186604016929433415225DRYL
2020-08-18 19:51:53FORECAST20203294361.8143.7152.7600.00190.02190.740.7619FF29.81566.81236459.1824721097400.551247384902069433415225DRYL
2020-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20203294361.9942.6452.31500.00190.01190.730.7419FF29.99564.99236459.1824721097400.557604117983459433415225DRYL
2020-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20203294366.2947.7857.03500.00080.01080.960.9708FF34.29581.29236459.1824721097400.701644174951889443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-18 07:51:36FORECAST20203294366.3247.7557.03500.00080.01080.460.4708FF34.32572.32236459.1824721097400.702573310064379443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-18 04:00:03FORECAST20203294367.1446.7156.92500.00080.01080.690.7008FF35.14570.14236459.1824721097400.727441972599069443415227.5DRYL
2020-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20203294371.0349.5960.3100.00120.00120.490.4912FF39.03564.03236459.1824721097400.829655126525919443415155DRYH
2020-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20203294371.0549.5960.3200.00120.00120.420.4212FF39.05589.05236459.1824721097400.830107852325689443415155DRYH
2020-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20203294372.9552.6362.7900.00120.00120.450.4512FF40.95594.95236459.1824721097400.869602638070129453415160DRYH
2020-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203294368.1154.1361.1200.00020.01020.850.8602FF36.11588.11236459.1824721097400.755463289870619443415155DRYH
2020-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203294355.3954.154.745000.011.281.29FF23.39565.39236459.1824721097400.328212563852289423415222.5DRYL
2020-08-17 04:00:05FORECAST20203294355.8455.4855.66000.011.381.39FF23.84568.84236459.1824721097400.342870025623749423415222.5DRYL