Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 20, 2020

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DAY 325 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2020 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.23°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.374 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 27 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 534 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.10 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.14 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 232 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.06 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-21 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2020	325	39	59.23004	49.24004	54.23504	0	0.039999999999964	0.039999999999964	0.1	0.13999999999996	F	F	27.23004	534.23004	232	457.05785953596	0	0.37401288776894	94	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-21 00:04:29	FORECAST	2020	325	39	50.91	50.91	50.91	0	0.0042	0.0042	0.1	0.1042	F	F	18.91	525.91	233	457.5920440763	0	0.13824286082542	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	325	39	65.3	53.44	59.37	0	0.0409	0.0409	0.1	0.1409	F	F	33.3	540.3	233	457.5920440763	0	0.59412082088911	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	65.71	50.17	57.94	0	0.082	0.082	0.1	0.182	F	F	33.71	540.71	233	457.5920440763	0	0.60870429655239	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	325	39	63.2	51.88	57.54	0	0.2015	0.2015	0.1	0.3015	F	F	31.2	538.2	233	457.5920440763	0	0.51779662480262	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	66.18	51.67	58.925	0	0.117	0.117	0.1	0.217	F	F	34.18	528.18	232	457.05785953596	0	0.62523478730195	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.87	49.69	57.28	0	0.2078	0.2278	0.1	0.3278	F	F	32.87	541.87	232	457.05785953596	0	0.57868472093039	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64	50.83	57.415	0	0.3127	0.3327	0.1	0.4327	F	F	32	541	232	457.05785953596	0	0.54710541759916	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.62	50.8	57.71	0	0.1893	0.2093	0.1	0.3093	F	F	32.62	541.62	232	457.05785953596	0	0.56965270785608	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.22	50.15	57.185	0	0.1468	0.1568	0.1	0.2568	F	F	32.22	540.22	232	457.05785953596	0	0.55512733234198	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.38	50.14	57.26	0	0.1881	0.1981	0.1	0.2981	F	F	32.38	535.38	232	457.05785953596	0	0.5609474960409	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	62.97	50.3	56.635	0	0.2433	0.2633	0.1	0.3633	F	F	30.97	522.97	232	457.05785953596	0	0.5093454741257	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-18 19:51:53	FORECAST	2020	325	39	63.24	50.8	57.02	0	0.138	0.158	0.1	0.258	F	F	31.24	545.24	232	457.05785953596	0	0.5192656810121	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	63.98	51.24	57.61	0	0.1317	0.1417	0.1	0.2417	F	F	31.98	540.98	232	457.05785953596	0	0.54637514814112	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.8	49.22	57.01	0	0.0844	0.0944	0.1	0.1944	F	F	32.8	547.8	232	457.05785953596	0	0.57615971358813	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-18 07:51:36	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.92	50.37	57.645	0	0.0711	0.0711	0.1	0.1711	F	F	32.92	541.92	232	457.05785953596	0	0.58048632511978	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	62.55	50.17	56.36	0	0.1709	0.2009	0.1	0.3009	F	F	30.55	538.55	232	457.05785953596	0	0.49390480517809	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	64.41	51.04	57.725	0	0.1297	0.1497	0.11	0.2597	F	F	32.41	522.41	232	457.05785953596	0	0.56203735038524	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-08-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	65.16	51.09	58.125	0	0.0567	0.0667	0.12	0.1867	F	F	33.16	547.16	232	457.05785953596	0	0.58910992161267	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	65.95	50.56	58.255	0	0.0457	0.0557	0.12	0.1757	F	F	33.95	548.95	232	457.05785953596	0	0.61717202469799	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	67.09	50.52	58.805	0	0.0366	0.0466	0.12	0.1666	F	F	35.09	549.09	232	457.05785953596	0	0.656571717827	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	58.46	49.94	54.2	0	0.0939	0.0939	0.12	0.2139	F	F	26.46	539.46	232	457.05785953596	0	0.34745123683728	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	325	39	62.62	49.5	56.06	0	0.098	0.098	0.12	0.218	F	F	30.62	544.62	232	457.05785953596	0	0.49647824060198	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-17 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.32	49.88	59.6	0	0.0056	0.0156	0.14	0.1556	F	F	37.32	536.32	232	457.05785953596	0	0.72862248030516	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 19:51:43	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.33	49.88	59.605	0	0.0064	0.0164	0.14	0.1564	F	F	37.33	549.33	232	457.05785953596	0	0.72892792631891	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.28	50.37	59.825	0	0.0015	0.0115	0.14	0.1515	F	F	37.28	550.28	232	457.05785953596	0	0.72739898599817	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	72.11	50.37	61.24	0	0.0014	0.0314	0.13	0.1614	F	F	40.11	553.11	232	457.05785953596	0	0.80671179347888	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	70.72	49.96	60.34	0	0.0014	0.0214	0.12	0.1414	F	F	38.72	551.72	232	457.05785953596	0	0.7696509597446	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 03:52:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	70.7	49.9	60.3	0	0.0014	0.0214	0.13	0.1514	F	F	38.7	559.7	232	457.05785953596	0	0.76909028702635	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	71.35	51.46	61.405	0	0.0011	0.0211	0.13	0.1511	F	F	39.35	556.35	232	457.05785953596	0	0.7869185139153	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	71.37	51.46	61.415	0	0.0011	0.0211	0.14	0.1611	F	F	39.37	572.37	232	457.05785953596	0	0.78745405495873	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.28	50.32	59.8	0	0.0022	0.0222	0.13	0.1522	F	F	37.28	573.28	232	457.05785953596	0	0.72739898599817	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.42	50.52	59.97	0	0.0008	0.0408	0.21	0.2508	F	F	37.42	563.42	232	457.05785953596	0	0.73166921024368	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.43	50.51	59.97	0	0.0008	0.0408	0.23	0.2708	F	F	37.43	559.43	232	457.05785953596	0	0.73197293548782	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 03:52:05	FORECAST	2020	325	39	68.49	49.49	58.99	0	0.0008	0.0508	0.23	0.2808	F	F	36.49	565.49	232	457.05785953596	0	0.70268996718855	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	73.9	49.52	61.71	0	0.002	0.052	0.16	0.212	F	F	41.9	574.9	232	457.05785953596	0	0.8487087530039	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	73.92	49.53	61.725	0	0.002	0.062	0.15	0.212	F	F	41.92	588.92	232	457.05785953596	0	0.84914091721637	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	75.33	50.07	62.7	0	0.002	0.072	0.15	0.222	F	F	43.33	590.33	232	457.05785953596	0	0.87755178196858	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	72.59	48.45	60.52	0	0.0005	0.0605	0.15	0.2105	F	F	40.59	584.59	232	457.05785953596	0	0.81861533479376	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	72.6	48.44	60.52	0	0.0005	0.0605	0.16	0.2205	F	F	40.6	581.6	232	457.05785953596	0	0.81885835364528	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	325	39	72.82	49.08	60.95	0	0.0005	0.0605	0.14	0.2005	F	F	40.82	583.82	232	457.05785953596	0	0.82415320259885	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	68.63	48.57	58.6	0	0.001	0.081	0.14	0.221	F	F	36.63	562.63	232	457.05785953596	0	0.70714255970011	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	325	39	68.64	48.58	58.61	0	0.001	0.081	0.15	0.231	F	F	36.64	581.64	232	457.05785953596	0	0.70745941531133	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	69.57	47.79	58.68	0	0.0008	0.0808	0.19	0.2708	F	F	37.57	585.57	232	457.05785953596	0	0.73620685683689	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	67.13	53.17	60.15	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.16	0.1612	F	F	35.13	585.13	232	457.05785953596	0	0.65792661464452	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-13 07:51:54	FORECAST	2020	325	39	55.55	53.16	54.355	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.18	0.1812	F	F	23.55	568.55	232	457.05785953596	0	0.25449409436765	94	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	325	39	54.33	52.67	53.5	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.16	0.1612	F	F	22.33	584.33	232	457.05785953596	0	0.2197986691483	94	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L