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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 17, 2020

[ Sunday, August 16, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 18, 2020 ]

DAY 322 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/18/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 70.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.924
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 45
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 526

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 229
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-18 04:00:02OBSERVATION20203223677.3999663.4200870.410020000.10.1FF45.39996526.39996229455.44307233574 00.9242860456499593 53415160DRYH
2020-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20203223662.0162.0162.0100.00750.00750.10.1075FF30.01511.01230455.9833814234300.462086623227919323415222.5DRYL
2020-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203223679.4160.8470.12500.02140.02140.10.1214FF47.41528.41230455.9833814234300.948951653208949353415160DRYH
2020-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203223677.3760.4868.92500.02170.02170.10.1217FF45.37526.37230455.9833814234300.92385974835039353415160DRYH
2020-08-17 04:00:05FORECAST20203223677.6460.469.0200.02250.02250.10.1225FF45.64526.64230455.9833814234300.927636378270219353415160DRYH
2020-08-17 00:00:01FORECAST20203223677.6759.968.78500.03680.03680.10.1368FF45.67513.67229455.4430723357400.928047014431999353415160DRYH
2020-08-16 19:51:43FORECAST20203223677.315968.15500.03290.04290.10.1429FF45.31527.31229455.4430723357400.923000544417279353415160DRYH
2020-08-16 16:00:03FORECAST20203223676.6358.9767.800.03350.04350.10.1435FF44.63526.63229455.4430723357400.912743681306389353415160DRYH
2020-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20203223677.8760.2869.07500.01810.02810.10.1281FF45.87527.87229455.4430723357400.930739221143539353415160DRYH
2020-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203223676.8158.9967.900.01330.02330.10.1233FF44.81526.81229455.4430723357400.91555276563479353415160DRYH
2020-08-16 03:52:03FORECAST20203223678.0560.3969.2200.01430.03430.10.1343FF46.05528.05229455.4430723357400.933095465489469353415160DRYH
2020-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20203223677.5859.9668.7700.00760.02760.10.1276FF45.58527.58229455.4430723357400.926809740577839353415160DRYH
2020-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203223678.0160.3269.16500.00550.03550.10.1355FF46.01544.01229455.4430723357400.932577270647279353415160DRYH
2020-08-15 16:00:03FORECAST20203223678.360.4369.36500.00410.03410.10.1341FF46.3544.3229455.4430723357400.936264896324659353415160DRYH
2020-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20203223677.3759.6268.49500.0490.1090.10.209FF45.37543.37229455.4430723357400.923859748350393534251120DRYVH
2020-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20203223677.2959.2868.28500.04630.12630.10.2263FF45.29539.29229455.4430723357400.9227125170776393534251120DRYVH
2020-08-15 03:52:05FORECAST20203223677.3959.2668.32500.04570.12570.10.2257FF45.39544.39229455.4430723357400.9241445275091293534251120DRYVH
2020-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203223677.5459.0368.28500.02190.06190.10.1619FF45.54544.54229455.4430723357400.92625466141039353415160DRYH
2020-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203223678.2759.6768.9700.01130.03130.120.1513FF46.27559.27229455.4430723357400.935890826685189353415160DRYH
2020-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203223677.8959.7268.80500.00860.02860.120.1486FF45.89558.89229455.4430723357400.9310041303459353415160DRYH
2020-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20203223675.0360.4467.73500.01210.03210.120.1521FF43.03555.03229455.4430723357400.884663430739659353415160DRYH
2020-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20203223675.0260.4467.7300.02110.04110.120.1611FF43.02552.02229455.4430723357400.884469821247159353415160DRYH
2020-08-14 04:00:04FORECAST20203223678.2460.1869.2100.02150.03150.110.1415FF46.24555.24229455.4430723357400.935515058311769353415160DRYH
2020-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20203223677.9959.6568.8200.01290.03290.110.1429FF45.99542.99229455.4430723357400.93231701661849353415160DRYH
2020-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20203223677.9758.3568.1600.01670.03670.110.1467FF45.97560.97229455.4430723357400.932055989846129353415160DRYH
2020-08-13 16:00:03FORECAST20203223678.359.2668.7800.0230.0830.110.193FF46.3561.3229455.4430723357400.936264896324659353415160DRYH
2020-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20203223677.3658.6367.99500.03410.05410.110.1641FF45.36557.36229455.4430723357400.923717054981619353415160DRYH
2020-08-13 07:51:54FORECAST20203223677.3458.6367.98500.03410.06410.120.1841FF45.34552.34229455.4430723357400.923431059936459353415160DRYH
2020-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203223677.7258.968.3100.03410.05410.110.1641FF45.72562.72229455.4430723357400.928727447787819353415160DRYH
2020-08-13 00:00:03FORECAST20203223680.260.9470.5700.04680.05680.110.1668FF48.2558.2229455.4430723357400.956693507680739353415160DRYH
2020-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20203223680.1860.9370.55500.04680.05680.120.1768FF48.18571.18229455.4430723357400.956509893583099353415160DRYH
2020-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20203223678.6359.8869.25500.04690.05690.120.1769FF46.63568.63229455.4430723357400.940268793221899353415160DRYH
2020-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20203223677.9258.868.3600.04070.06070.120.1807FF45.92561.92229455.4430723357400.931400033961179353415160DRYH
2020-08-12 08:00:03FORECAST20203223677.9258.7968.35500.04070.06070.110.1707FF45.92563.92229455.4430723357400.931400033961179353415160DRYH
2020-08-12 04:00:02FORECAST20203223677.0657.3367.19500.04080.06080.120.1808FF45.06565.06229455.4430723357400.919341340243989353415160DRYH
2020-08-12 00:00:04FORECAST20203223679.3960.4469.91500.0570.0870.130.217FF47.39551.39229455.4430723357400.94874226279119353415160DRYH
2020-08-11 19:52:17FORECAST20203223679.3960.4469.91500.0570.0870.130.217FF47.39570.39229455.4430723357400.94874226279119353415160DRYH
2020-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20203223678.3660.2369.29500.05670.08670.130.2167FF46.36567.36229455.4430723357400.937007956755879353415160DRYH
2020-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20203223679.6660.2169.93500.01890.01890.130.1489FF47.66552.66229455.4430723357400.95151217771859353415160DRYH
2020-08-11 08:00:03FORECAST20203223680.8460.1570.49500.01890.01890.120.1389FF48.84559.84229455.4430723357400.962247022923749353415160DRYH
2020-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20203223682.6560.6171.6300.01760.01760.150.1676FF50.65567.65229455.4430723357400.974887111568639353415160DRYH
2020-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20203223682.0158.7770.3900.02190.05190.130.1819FF50.01562.01229455.4430723357400.970896641792259353415160DRYH
2020-08-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020322368259.970.9500.02170.05170.140.1917FF50581229455.4430723357400.970830345970519353415160DRYH
2020-08-10 16:00:03FORECAST20203223679.958.9169.40500.030.060.130.19FF47.9579.9229455.4430723357400.953872945565489353415160DRYH
2020-08-10 12:00:03FORECAST20203223668.9353.9461.43500.00120.04120.140.1812FF36.93553.93229455.4430723357400.72316936458249343415155DRYH
2020-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20203223655.7253.9254.8200.00020.04020.130.1702FF23.72539.72229455.4430723357400.235739550926629313415220DRYL
2020-08-10 04:00:05FORECAST20203223656.0354.5855.305000.040.120.16FF24.03547.03229455.4430723357400.245326061232439313415220DRYL