Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 15, 2020

[ Friday, August 14, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 16, 2020 ]

DAY 320 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/16/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 67.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.636 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 35 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 510 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.10 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 227 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.90 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 34 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	67.24	67.24	67.24	0	0	0	0.1	0.1	F	F	35.24	510.24	228	454.90070616754	0	0.63602065576553	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	82.22	66.28	74.25	0	0.0185	0.0185	0.1	0.1185	F	F	50.22	525.22	228	454.90070616754	0	0.9584605322876	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	77.67	63.81	70.74	0	0.0198	0.0198	0.1	0.1198	F	F	45.67	520.67	228	454.90070616754	0	0.90518329669969	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-15 03:52:05	FORECAST	2020	320	34	82.56	57.56	70.06	0	0.0156	0.0156	0.1	0.1156	F	F	50.56	525.56	228	454.90070616754	0	0.96118645153113	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	83.04	57.89	70.465	0	0.0114	0.0114	0.1	0.1114	F	F	51.04	526.04	227	454.35627508706	0	0.96478569746702	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	83.09	55.81	69.45	0	0.0043	0.0243	0.1	0.1243	F	F	51.09	540.09	227	454.35627508706	0	0.96514438327441	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	83.05	55.93	69.49	0	0.0032	0.0232	0.1	0.1232	F	F	51.05	540.05	227	454.35627508706	0	0.96485767514684	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	82.72	56.48	69.6	0	0	0.02	0.1	0.12	F	F	50.72	539.72	227	454.35627508706	0	0.96241800875914	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	82.57	57.46	70.015	0	0.0004	0.0204	0.1	0.1204	F	F	50.57	535.57	227	454.35627508706	0	0.96126437215348	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	320	34	81.4	57.23	69.315	0	0.0005	0.0105	0.1	0.1105	F	F	49.4	538.4	227	454.35627508706	0	0.95124789362003	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.81	56.8	68.805	0	0	0.01	0.1	0.11	F	F	48.81	526.81	227	454.35627508706	0	0.94546624331315	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	81.33	56.91	69.12	0	0.0004	0.0104	0.1	0.1104	F	F	49.33	544.33	227	454.35627508706	0	0.95058858874148	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	81.45	56.95	69.2	0	0.0014	0.0114	0.1	0.1114	F	F	49.45	544.45	227	454.35627508706	0	0.95171452042454	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	81.08	56.67	68.875	0	0.0005	0.0105	0.1	0.1105	F	F	49.08	544.08	227	454.35627508706	0	0.94817584381252	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-13 07:51:54	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.71	56.26	68.485	0	0.0016	0.0216	0.1	0.1216	F	F	48.71	537.71	227	454.35627508706	0	0.94443480108064	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.68	56.26	68.47	0	0.0011	0.0111	0.1	0.1111	F	F	48.68	543.68	227	454.35627508706	0	0.944122393732	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.3	55.74	68.02	0	0.0018	0.0118	0.1	0.1118	F	F	48.3	537.3	227	454.35627508706	0	0.9400446179394	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	320	34	79.94	55.28	67.61	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.12	0.1221	F	F	47.94	549.94	227	454.35627508706	0	0.9359706773538	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	320	34	79.53	55.14	67.335	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.12	0.1217	F	F	47.53	548.53	227	454.35627508706	0	0.93107322465025	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	75.3	54.7	65	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.12	0.1221	F	F	43.3	543.3	227	454.35627508706	0	0.86268722877959	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	75.4	56.01	65.705	0	0.003	0.003	0.11	0.113	F	F	43.4	545.4	227	454.35627508706	0	0.86470773907449	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-12 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	79.73	55	67.365	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.12	0.1221	F	F	47.73	547.73	227	454.35627508706	0	0.93349701985297	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	320	34	79.08	53.35	66.215	0	0.001	0.001	0.13	0.131	F	F	47.08	530.08	227	454.35627508706	0	0.92537213052914	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-11 19:52:16	FORECAST	2020	320	34	79.06	53.13	66.095	0	0.0007	0.0007	0.13	0.1307	F	F	47.06	549.06	227	454.35627508706	0	0.92511066450317	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	78.21	52	65.105	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	46.21	548.21	227	454.35627508706	0	0.91334331121123	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	72.29	49.26	60.775	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.13	0.1322	F	F	40.29	535.29	227	454.35627508706	0	0.79226335151746	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	73.26	49.19	61.225	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.12	0.1222	F	F	41.26	540.26	227	454.35627508706	0	0.81698219466059	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	73.79	49.84	61.815	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.15	0.1522	F	F	41.79	544.79	227	454.35627508706	0	0.82967990645665	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.04	54.1	67.07	0	0.001	0.001	0.13	0.131	F	F	48.04	543.04	227	454.35627508706	0	0.9371232645997	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.04	54.1	67.07	0	0.001	0.001	0.14	0.141	F	F	48.04	562.04	227	454.35627508706	0	0.9371232645997	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	80.38	54.83	67.605	0	0.001	0.001	0.13	0.131	F	F	48.38	563.38	227	454.35627508706	0	0.94092185378084	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	76.77	51.33	64.05	0	0.0006	0.0106	0.13	0.1406	F	F	44.77	552.77	227	454.35627508706	0	0.89035256067287	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	76.77	51.32	64.045	0	0.0006	0.0106	0.12	0.1306	F	F	44.77	551.77	227	454.35627508706	0	0.89035256067287	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-10 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	320	34	78.41	52.51	65.46	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.12	0.1206	F	F	46.41	558.41	227	454.35627508706	0	0.91622889546624	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	75.55	50.43	62.99	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.13	0.1306	F	F	43.55	553.55	227	454.35627508706	0	0.86770023550197	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	75.54	50.42	62.98	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.11	0.1106	F	F	43.54	567.54	227	454.35627508706	0	0.86750216235738	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	73.95	51.02	62.485	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.11	0.1106	F	F	41.95	566.95	227	454.35627508706	0	0.83339980760381	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	77.38	52.34	64.86	0	0.002	0.002	0.11	0.112	F	F	45.38	565.38	227	454.35627508706	0	0.90057472297467	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	77.37	52.33	64.85	0	0.002	0.002	0.12	0.122	F	F	45.37	557.37	227	454.35627508706	0	0.90041294593227	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-09 04:04:13	FORECAST	2020	320	34	76.02	50.91	63.465	0	0.002	0.012	0.11	0.122	F	F	44.02	570.02	227	454.35627508706	0	0.87678078215217	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-09 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	320	34	73.96	49.96	61.96	0	0.0044	0.0044	0.12	0.1244	F	F	41.96	562.96	227	454.35627508706	0	0.83363055162757	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	73.97	49.95	61.96	0	0.0032	0.0032	0.15	0.1532	F	F	41.97	576.97	227	454.35627508706	0	0.83386108970881	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	320	34	76.58	50.43	63.505	0	0.0032	0.0032	0.15	0.1532	F	F	44.58	578.58	227	454.35627508706	0	0.88702008248531	94	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	320	34	61.6	44.9	53.25	0	0.0013	0.2813	0.15	0.4313	F	F	29.6	542.6	227	454.35627508706	0	0.43130775159545	94	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-08 07:52:27	FORECAST	2020	320	34	47.32	44.88	46.1	0	0.0013	0.2813	0.14	0.4213	F	F	15.32	529.32	227	454.35627508706	0	0.067738425376421	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	320	34	45.9	45.52	45.71	0	0.0013	0.2813	0.13	0.4113	F	F	13.9	534.9	227	454.35627508706	0	0.052145853759657	94	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M