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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 11, 2020

[ Monday, August 10, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 12, 2020 ]

DAY 316 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/12/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.314
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 571

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 223
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-12 04:00:02OBSERVATION20203163059.9300641.2399450.5850000.10.1FF27.93006570.93006223452.15774396071 00.3140390678994693 22415220DRYL
2020-08-12 00:00:04FORECAST20203163041.8241.8241.8200.00560.00560.10.1056FF9.82552.82224452.7105136061700.0128686600537249312415217.5DRYL
2020-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20203163062.2343.552.86500.02140.02140.10.1214FF30.23573.23224452.7105136061700.396167613980649322415220DRYL
2020-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20203163062.7843.8953.33500.00780.00780.10.1078FF30.78573.78224452.7105136061700.416679978116169322415220DRYL
2020-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20203163060.744.1452.4200.03540.03540.10.1354FF28.7571.7224452.7105136061700.340757111116359322415220DRYL
2020-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20203163063.3944.6354.0100.00710.01710.10.1171FF31.39559.39223452.1577439607100.43969601145999322415220DRYL
2020-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20203163063.1644.2653.7100.01150.03150.10.1315FF31.16578.16223452.1577439607100.430989502313279322415220DRYL
2020-08-10 16:00:03FORECAST20203163063.1644.5253.8400.01210.03210.10.1321FF31.16578.16223452.1577439607100.430989502313279322415220DRYL
2020-08-10 12:00:03FORECAST20203163064.0245.654.81000.020.10.12FF32.02579.02223452.1577439607100.463681680697369322415220DRYL
2020-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20203163063.9645.4254.69000.010.10.11FF31.96578.96223452.1577439607100.461390234496079322415220DRYL
2020-08-10 04:00:04FORECAST20203163063.9544.3554.1500.00040.02040.10.1204FF31.95574.95223452.1577439607100.461008449300879322415220DRYL
2020-08-10 00:00:02FORECAST20203163063.543.3653.4300.0010.0310.10.131FF31.5573.5223452.1577439607100.443870594812379322415220DRYL
2020-08-09 20:00:03FORECAST20203163063.3243.4153.36500.00110.01110.10.1111FF31.32586.32223452.1577439607100.437042914974039322415220DRYL
2020-08-09 16:00:03FORECAST20203163063.5443.1853.3600.00180.01180.10.1118FF31.54586.54223452.1577439607100.445390195607759322415220DRYL
2020-08-09 12:00:03FORECAST20203163062.8542.9952.9200.00120.01120.10.1112FF30.85584.85223452.1577439607100.419308251287199322415220DRYL
2020-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20203163057.7742.650.18500.00050.02050.10.1205FF25.77576.77223452.1577439607100.244419574181119312415217.5DRYL
2020-08-09 04:04:12FORECAST20203163061.9842.4952.23500.00070.01070.10.1107FF29.98584.98223452.1577439607100.386934358072719322415220DRYL
2020-08-09 00:00:05FORECAST20203163062.4742.0952.2800.00160.01160.110.1216FF30.47582.47223452.1577439607100.405086736544299322415220DRYL
2020-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20203163061.8541.6251.73500.00190.00190.150.1519FF29.85595.85223452.1577439607100.382157864626739322415220DRYL
2020-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20203163061.942.6152.25500.00160.00160.150.1516FF29.9595.9223452.1577439607100.383992900737169322415220DRYL
2020-08-08 12:00:03FORECAST20203163057.2242.6549.93500.00190.00190.150.1519FF25.22591.22223452.1577439607100.228119745794879312415217.5DRYL
2020-08-08 07:52:27FORECAST20203163058.142.6450.3700.0040.0040.140.144FF26.1592.1223452.1577439607100.254492284438979322415220DRYL
2020-08-08 04:00:05FORECAST20203163063.8942.7353.3100.00430.00430.130.1343FF31.89597.89223452.1577439607100.458718504973119322415220DRYL
2020-08-08 00:00:03FORECAST20203163066.2646.4756.36500.00130.01130.090.1013FF34.26592.26223452.1577439607100.549430810299599332415222.5DRYL
2020-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20203163066.2646.4656.3600.0010.0110.120.131FF34.26605.26223452.1577439607100.549430810299599332515225DRYL
2020-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20203163066.5947.3256.95500.00080.00080.120.1208FF34.59606.59223452.1577439607100.561965522625899332515225DRYL
2020-08-07 12:00:03FORECAST20203163065.3445.9255.6300.00190.00190.110.1119FF33.34601.34223452.1577439607100.51426364867529332515225DRYL
2020-08-07 10:55:13FORECAST20203163065.3445.9255.6300.00190.00190.10.1019FF33.34600.34223452.1577439607100.51426364867529332515225DRYL
2020-08-07 08:00:03FORECAST20203163065.3545.9155.6300.00190.01190.090.1019FF33.35595.35223452.1577439607100.514646997720969332415222.5DRYL
2020-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20203163064.694554.84500.00190.00190.110.1119FF32.69598.69223452.1577439607100.489333901189559322415220DRYL
2020-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20203163065.5444.855.1700.00250.00250.070.0725FF33.54596.54223452.1577439607100.521927654481969332415222.5DRYL
2020-08-06 20:04:06FORECAST20203163065.5544.8155.1800.00250.00250.110.1125FF33.55604.55223452.1577439607100.522310665611379332515225DRYL
2020-08-06 16:00:04FORECAST20203163065.145.8955.49500.00230.00230.130.1323FF33.1602.1223452.1577439607100.505060131564179332515225DRYL
2020-08-06 12:00:03FORECAST20203163066.3149.4557.8800.00150.00150.130.1315FF34.31603.31223452.1577439607100.551333497873749332515225DRYL
2020-08-06 08:00:04FORECAST20203163066.3149.4557.8800.00150.00150.180.1815FF34.31607.31223452.1577439607100.551333497873749332515225DRYL
2020-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20203163065.8448.3857.1100.00280.00280.210.2128FF33.84603.84223452.1577439607100.533407593493229332515225DRYL
2020-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20203163067.2947.7157.500.00240.00240.230.2324FF35.29604.29223452.1577439607100.588334449701889332515225DRYL
2020-08-05 20:00:03FORECAST20203163067.347.757.500.00240.00240.260.2624FF35.3620.3223452.1577439607100.588708568912949332515225DRYL
2020-08-05 16:00:03FORECAST20203163067.5346.757.11500.00590.00590.260.2659FF35.53618.53223452.1577439607100.597290393160569332515225DRYL
2020-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20203163066.6847.5957.13500.00790.00790.240.2479FF34.68618.68223452.1577439607100.565373859778249332515225DRYL
2020-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20203163066.6747.5857.12500.00850.00850.270.2785FF34.67617.67223452.1577439607100.564995390678019332515225DRYL
2020-08-05 03:52:19FORECAST20203163064.8348.2156.5200.00480.01480.240.2548FF32.83608.83223452.1577439607100.494703198460089322515222.5DRYL
2020-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20203163062.6945.3654.02500.0260.0360.360.396FF30.69605.69223452.1577439607100.413306249844929322515222.5DRYL
2020-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20203163062.6949.1655.92500.01830.02830.280.3083FF30.69619.69223452.1577439607100.413306249844929322515222.5DRYL
2020-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20203163063.6548.6756.1600.01490.01490.220.2349FF31.65628.65223452.1577439607100.449573170419699322515222.5DRYL
2020-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203163051.0247.2349.12500.05820.05820.190.2482FF19.02613.02223452.1577439607100.0898336369101419312515220DRYL
2020-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20203163051.0147.3449.17500.03560.03560.210.2456FF19.01613.01223452.1577439607100.089677497480279312515220DRYL
2020-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20203163051.149.5450.3200.00140.00140.210.2114FF19.1617.1223452.1577439607100.091090008692959312515220DRYL