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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 1, 2020

[ Friday, July 31, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 2, 2020 ]

DAY 306 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/02/2020 12:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.056
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 590

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 213
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 20

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-02 00:00:04FORECAST20203062050.9150.9150.911.89662533333330.00010.00010.030.0301FF18.91589.91214447.811928719410.84933144857810.0555759657695149212414214DRYL
2020-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20203062066.7452.3259.532.01713066666670.01180.01180.030.0418FF34.74605.74214447.857861178640.903387826091180.57208473461249232514220DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203062061.8751.6956.781.5946120.01980.01980.030.0498FF29.87600.87214447.696749906730.713902609762270.357961971533169222514218DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203062067.9249.9858.950.825602916666670.01830.01830.030.0483FF35.92606.92214447.403073718020.369377282587230.623194771922189232514220DRYL
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203062069.4753.0661.26500.010.030.030.06FF37.47606.47213446.5129667018200.687060741540989232515150DRYMH
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203062069.1651.1860.1700.0080.0280.030.058FF37.16606.16213446.5129667018200.674655284247369232515150DRYMH
2020-07-31 16:00:03FORECAST20203062069.5952.0560.8200.00460.02460.030.0546FF37.59606.59213446.5129667018200.691807601256189232515150DRYMH
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203062069.2954.2961.7900.0010.0210.030.051FF37.29606.29213446.5129667018200.679882177928429232515150DRYMH
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203062068.9953.3761.1800.00050.01050.030.0405FF36.99604.99213446.5129667018200.667768107936919232515150DRYMH
2020-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20203062068.5253.2260.8700.00140.02140.030.0514FF36.52601.52213446.5129667018200.648436316817229232515150DRYMH
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203062068.0653.4460.7500.00090.04090.030.0709FF36.06593.06213446.5129667018200.629136372930569232415145DRYM
2020-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20203062068.9553.8361.3900.00160.05160.030.0816FF36.95605.95213446.5129667018200.666139223233159232515150DRYMH
2020-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20203062068.9353.7161.3200.00170.05170.030.0817FF36.93605.93213446.5129667018200.665323603768069232515150DRYMH
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203062069.9153.8561.8800.00110.04110.030.0711FF37.91607.91213446.5129667018200.704308542527429242515155DRYH
2020-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20203062070.3954.1262.25500.00020.04020.030.0702FF38.39607.39213446.5129667018200.722610189796389242515155DRYH
2020-07-30 03:52:17FORECAST20203062070.1753.8962.0300.00040.04040.030.0704FF38.17607.17213446.5129667018200.714290791221339242515155DRYH
2020-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203062070.4454.4362.43500.00230.09230.030.1223FF38.44608.44213446.5129667018200.7244843303668992425251110DRYVH
2020-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203062069.7353.9861.85500.00280.06280.040.1028FF37.73624.73213446.5129667018200.697305322013669232515150DRYMH
2020-07-29 15:58:27FORECAST20203062068.9252.9260.9200.00270.11270.040.1527FF36.92623.92213446.5129667018200.664915501215892325251100DRYVH
2020-07-29 11:52:57FORECAST20203062065.9653.5159.73500.00310.09310.040.1331FF33.96617.96213446.5129667018200.53756434844399232525250DRYMH
2020-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20203062065.9653.5359.74500.00310.10310.040.1431FF33.96617.96213446.5129667018200.53756434844399232525250DRYMH
2020-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20203062071.6253.2762.44500.00290.09290.040.1329FF39.62625.62213446.5129667018200.7668264098085492425251110DRYVH
2020-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20203062070.9251.3761.14500.00120.06120.050.1112FF38.92608.92213446.5129667018200.742153170405139242515155DRYH
2020-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20203062070.9250.7960.85500.00090.05090.060.1109FF38.92624.92213446.5129667018200.742153170405139242515155DRYH
2020-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20203062070.2253.6661.9400.00060.03060.060.0906FF38.22625.22213446.5129667018200.71619193797719242515155DRYH
2020-07-28 11:58:30FORECAST20203062069.4152.7661.08500.00090.04090.050.0909FF37.41623.41213446.5129667018200.684675574552059232515150DRYMH
2020-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20203062069.2452.9561.09500.00110.05110.040.0911FF37.24616.24213446.5129667018200.67787598006629232515150DRYMH
2020-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203062068.4952.2760.3800.00110.05110.060.1111FF36.49616.49213446.5129667018200.647188588579232515150DRYMH
2020-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20203062069.7551.5860.665000.050.040.09FF37.75599.75213446.5129667018200.698087114693149232515150DRYMH
2020-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20203062069.7551.5860.665000.050.050.1FF37.75618.75213446.5129667018200.698087114693149232515150DRYMH
2020-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203062068.6250.8559.73500.00090.08090.040.1209FF36.62615.62213446.5129667018200.652583814616459232515150DRYMH
2020-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20203062068.7850.8759.82500.00190.10190.040.1419FF36.78605.78213446.5129667018200.6591818182190992325251100DRYVH
2020-07-27 07:58:29FORECAST20203062068.7850.8759.82500.00190.13190.050.1819FF36.78608.78213446.5129667018200.6591818182190992325251100DRYVH
2020-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20203062067.9448.8358.38500.00160.17160.040.2116FF35.94605.94213446.5129667018200.624045397431919232525250DRYMH
2020-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20203062061.4345.5353.4800.07020.32020.090.4102FF29.43587.43213446.5129667018200.339727576749489222425240DRYM
2020-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20203062061.4345.5353.4800.07020.31020.120.4302FF29.43603.43213446.5129667018200.339727576749489222525245DRYM
2020-07-26 15:52:28FORECAST20203062062.544.953.700.07070.37070.110.4807FF30.5601.5213446.5129667018200.384634617761419222525245DRYM
2020-07-26 12:00:01FORECAST20203062065.5844.1654.8700.00320.20320.040.2432FF33.58599.58213446.5129667018200.520627030352089232525250DRYMH
2020-07-26 08:00:01FORECAST20203062065.6144.1354.8700.00320.20320.040.2432FF33.61593.61213446.5129667018200.521965945084449232425245DRYM
2020-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20203062065.3443.5554.44500.00340.35340.040.3934FF33.34596.34213446.5129667018200.509908600288789232425245DRYM
2020-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020306206443.3553.67500.0020.0520.040.092FF32604213446.5129667018200.450149817078929222515222.5DRYL
2020-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20203062064.0243.3453.6800.0020.0520.040.092FF32.02617.02213446.5129667018200.451036837558949222515222.5DRYL
2020-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20203062063.0442.8552.94500.00680.12680.050.1768FF31.04611.04213446.5129667018200.407945362627569222525245DRYM
2020-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20203062050.2844.6747.47500.00540.30540.050.3554FF18.28593.28213446.5129667018200.0480703435454749212425235DRYL
2020-07-25 08:03:45FORECAST20203062047.0945.0246.05500.00350.30350.050.3535FF15.09589.09213446.5129667018200.021542936619679212425235DRYL
2020-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20203062049.4847.4348.455000.050.040.09FF17.48616.48213446.5129667018200.0397297982011949212515220DRYL