Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 9, 2020

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DAY 283 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/10/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.76°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.24°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.091 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 372 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.17 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.83 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 40 in SWE DAY: 190 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.69 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 17.99 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -3 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-10 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	283	-3	48.75998	41.23994	44.99996	40.104906666667	0.04000000000002	0.17000000000002	0.83	1	F	F	16.75998	371.75998	190	448.68723669064	17.994559750003	0.091306012278001	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-2	44.07	44.07	44.07	39.934017333333	0.0011	0.1311	0.83	0.9611	F	F	12.07	367.07	191	449.18863375244	17.937906686206	0.035358467625141	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-09 11:58:41	FORECAST	2020	283	-2	53.79	44.87	49.33	39.742229333333	0.1295	0.2595	0.83	1.0895	F	F	21.79	376.79	191	449.11617262346	17.848877929711	0.2047207213883	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-2	54.81	43.27	49.04	39.39772	0.1368	0.2668	0.83	1.0968	F	F	22.81	377.81	191	448.98592180391	17.689021631172	0.23515831711213	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-09 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-2	51.7	43.91	47.805	39.515890416667	0.1148	0.2448	0.83	1.0748	F	F	19.7	374.7	191	449.03061208283	17.743844460794	0.15014551081438	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 23:53:58	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	54.2	43.2	48.7	42.024456	0.0981	0.1481	0.83	0.9781	F	F	22.2	381.2	190	449.41297602678	18.886335836866	0.21666438695351	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 19:53:46	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	53.61	40.98	47.295	43.153250666667	0.095	0.145	0.83	0.975	F	F	21.61	380.61	190	449.83809914838	19.411976251967	0.19960309907097	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	52.99	41.67	47.33	43.119357333333	0.1336	0.1836	0.83	1.0136	F	F	20.99	379.99	190	449.82535208884	19.396180094311	0.18257242653226	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 11:53:28	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	53.84	43	48.42	41.796478666667	0.1698	0.2198	0.83	1.0498	F	F	21.84	380.84	190	449.3269678707	18.780285026966	0.20615598736403	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	55	43.68	49.34	41.352421333333	0.1075	0.1575	0.83	0.9875	F	F	23	383	190	449.15929697109	18.573824494132	0.24109162134127	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	54.46	42.28	48.37	40.780395083333	0.158	0.228	0.83	1.058	F	F	22.46	382.46	190	448.94302758529	18.308074034836	0.22444238942665	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	54.33	44.13	49.23	42.878953333333	0.1221	0.1621	0.83	0.9921	F	F	22.33	378.33	190	449.7349062237	19.284162056337	0.22053377603067	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 19:53:48	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	52.72	43.43	48.075	44.143430666667	0.1018	0.2718	0.83	1.1018	F	F	20.72	385.72	190	450.21001540678	19.873814600548	0.17544769754232	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 15:53:31	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	54.19	43.36	48.775	44.019884	0.0821	0.2621	0.83	1.0921	F	F	22.19	387.19	190	450.16366175663	19.816152171542	0.21636837396328	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	53.31	43.53	48.42	43.065404	0.1768	0.3768	0.83	1.2068	F	F	21.31	385.31	190	449.80505833141	19.371036558286	0.191246403583	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	53.25	43.39	48.32	43.028394666667	0.1763	0.4363	0.83	1.2663	F	F	21.25	380.25	190	449.7911362036	19.353790526137	0.1896011140506	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	53.91	42.85	48.38	42.352093304348	0.2035	0.4935	0.83	1.3235	F	F	21.91	385.91	190	449.53649533953	19.038811594329	0.20817533078627	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	53.95	43.18	48.565	45.486866666667	0.1115	0.3515	0.84	1.1915	F	F	21.95	370.95	190	450.71312312151	20.501527736345	0.20933445279876	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	55.52	43.28	49.4	46.475605333333	0.0761	0.3261	0.86	1.1861	F	F	23.52	388.52	190	451.0823039131	20.964323129516	0.257737537349	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	56.68	43.69	50.185	46.369606666667	0.0484	0.3084	0.86	1.1684	F	F	24.68	389.68	190	451.04276989206	20.914675829739	0.29690603331244	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	56.62	42.37	49.495	45.113093333333	0.0666	0.2266	0.86	1.0866	F	F	24.62	389.62	190	450.57331986334	20.326756232505	0.29481497099147	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	54.34	43.49	48.915	44.695658666667	0.0512	0.2312	0.86	1.0912	F	F	22.34	386.34	190	450.41702889199	20.13168578101	0.22083304947855	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-06 03:53:37	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	63.89	42.6	53.245	44.195732	0.0085	0.2085	0.88	1.0885	F	F	31.89	396.89	190	450.22963403674	19.898228244346	0.57688220887129	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	63.65	42.06	52.855	43.79508	0.0092	0.1592	0.87	1.0292	F	F	31.65	397.65	190	450.07927989956	19.711258069544	0.56738331698768	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	64.12	38.76	51.44	44.855049333333	0.0059	0.2159	0.87	1.0859	F	F	32.12	416.12	190	450.47672562607	20.206155751476	0.58594364547022	91	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	62.03	41.86	51.945	44.812354666667	0.0375	0.2475	0.88	1.1275	F	F	30.03	413.03	190	450.46073752278	20.186206333279	0.50251931127001	91	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	60.84	42.27	51.555	43.547696	0.0582	0.1482	0.88	1.0282	F	F	28.84	409.84	190	449.98636676959	19.595869504227	0.45473217898116	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 07:54:09	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	60.87	42.29	51.58	43.258618666667	0.0582	0.2082	0.85	1.0582	F	F	28.87	408.87	190	449.87772035152	19.461088751316	0.4559317819329	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	59.8	42.33	51.065	43.07400725	0.0814	0.2514	0.87	1.1214	F	F	27.8	414.8	190	449.80829450448	19.375045738596	0.41347546332627	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	58.73	42.9	50.815	43.602290666667	0.0617	0.3017	0.85	1.1517	F	F	26.73	405.73	190	450.00687659808	19.621330635428	0.37200799042087	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	59.35	43.37	51.36	44.642689333333	0.0609	0.1609	0.9	1.0609	F	F	27.35	418.35	190	450.39718488746	20.106941601539	0.39588875923358	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	58.52	42.08	50.3	44.759676	0.0889	0.1989	0.9	1.0989	F	F	26.52	412.52	190	450.44100826733	20.161593587159	0.3640246050334	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	61.01	42.73	51.87	43.681102666667	0.0916	0.2716	0.88	1.1516	F	F	29.01	412.01	190	450.03647924723	19.658089653744	0.46153506670834	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	61.01	42.72	51.865	43.473096	0.0916	0.2916	0.89	1.1816	F	F	29.01	406.01	190	449.95833684718	19.561081973758	0.46153506670834	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	58.21	42.93	50.57	43.356426583333	0.0911	0.2811	0.9	1.1811	F	F	26.21	412.21	190	449.91448927105	19.506684522858	0.35234753019392	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	56.42	41.5	48.96	44.154061333333	0.0366	0.1966	0.91	1.1066	F	F	24.42	401.42	190	450.21400326215	19.878776713163	0.28789423427089	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	56.43	41.51	48.97	45.361849333333	0.0366	0.1966	0.95	1.1466	F	F	24.43	412.43	190	450.66637738644	20.443060310603	0.28823844403421	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	57.64	42.09	49.865	44.992029333333	0.0865	0.2465	0.93	1.1765	F	F	25.64	415.64	190	450.52800956588	20.270169421876	0.33124252071398	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 12:03:10	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	59.9	42.58	51.24	43.806145333333	0.0785	0.2085	0.93	1.1385	F	F	27.9	412.9	190	450.08343448245	19.716420343064	0.41740865006378	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	59.91	42.59	51.25	43.574522666667	0.0785	0.2085	0.93	1.1385	F	F	27.91	413.91	190	449.99644522174	19.608380302234	0.41780243045665	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	60.29	42.21	51.25	43.826963916667	0.0611	0.2111	0.9	1.1111	F	F	28.29	412.29	190	450.09125069777	19.726133003538	0.43282363450837	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	59.19	42.54	50.865	43.001889333333	0.1092	0.1692	0.88	1.0492	F	F	27.19	416.19	190	449.78116465394	19.341439866666	0.3896844424186	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-02 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	59.2	42.55	50.875	44.375973333333	0.073	0.133	0.91	1.043	F	F	27.2	427.2	190	450.29722397507	19.982377603192	0.39007140795969	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	63.21	41.92	52.565	44.610056	0	0.07	0.9	0.97	F	F	31.21	434.21	190	450.38495806906	20.091698201019	0.54987106045804	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	57.11	42.11	49.61	43.715381333333	0.0004	0.0104	0.87	0.8804	F	F	25.11	429.11	190	450.04935284021	19.67407907823	0.3120862568225	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	45.59	42.11	43.85	44.063662666667	0.0004	0.0104	0.86	0.8704	F	F	13.59	416.59	190	450.18008880105	19.836583572179	0.04912819176651	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	283	-3	42.23	41.93	42.08	43.98749325	0.0004	0.0104	0.91	0.9204	F	F	10.23	423.23	190	450.15150661799	19.801036358836	0.023087546292787	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L