Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 8, 2020

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DAY 282 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/09/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.06°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.39°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.128 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 370 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.11 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.83 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.96 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 41 in SWE DAY: 189 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.55 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 18.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -4 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-09 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	282	-4	52.05992	38.39	45.22496	41.248277083333	0.11000000000001	0.13000000000001	0.83	0.96000000000001	F	F	20.05992	370.05992	189	448.55350616525	18.502059309005	0.12784370946848	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-08 11:53:28	FORECAST	2020	282	-3	55.89	43.62	49.755	43.697949333333	0.0339	0.0539	0.83	0.8839	F	F	23.89	373.89	190	450.04280627078	19.665947746252	0.24377200575225	92	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-07-08 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	282	-3	56.73	42.82	49.775	43.346661333333	0.0279	0.0479	0.83	0.8779	F	F	24.73	374.73	190	449.91081863214	19.50213188545	0.27517608869856	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	282	-3	57.21	39.97	48.59	42.711276416667	0.0472	0.0672	0.83	0.8972	F	F	25.21	375.21	190	449.67178936409	19.206056092307	0.29397329885606	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-08 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.21	42.01	49.61	44.896536	0.0399	0.0399	0.83	0.8699	F	F	25.21	371.21	189	449.93104465583	20.200345343908	0.29397329885606	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-07 19:53:48	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.14	40.56	48.85	46.061738666667	0.0436	0.1736	0.83	1.0036	F	F	25.14	380.14	189	450.36832834723	20.744748244074	0.29119542111811	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-07 15:53:31	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.09	41.16	49.125	45.989633333333	0.0513	0.1813	0.83	1.0113	F	F	25.09	380.09	189	450.34130580903	20.711031529012	0.28921874906225	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.45	42.56	49.505	45.042642666667	0.0727	0.2027	0.83	1.0327	F	F	24.45	379.45	189	449.98594736482	20.268556232175	0.26449096555677	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.17	42.22	49.195	44.977698666667	0.0743	0.2643	0.83	1.0943	F	F	24.17	374.17	189	449.96154578146	20.238234817746	0.25402081856938	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	55.89	42.92	49.405	44.257991971014	0.1	0.29	0.83	1.12	F	F	23.89	378.89	189	449.69085880955	19.902414418632	0.24377200575225	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.26	42.66	49.46	47.432398666667	0.0889	0.2489	0.83	1.0789	F	F	24.26	364.26	189	450.88106332509	21.386370346886	0.25736237866485	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.36	42.42	49.39	48.500732	0.0625	0.2825	0.83	1.1125	F	F	24.36	380.36	189	451.27946821743	21.887384545116	0.26110179943037	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.66	41.35	49.005	48.471922666667	0.0705	0.2905	0.83	1.1205	F	F	24.66	379.66	189	451.26873876384	21.873863407245	0.27248502364873	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.64	40.98	48.81	47.215628	0.06	0.19	0.83	1.02	F	F	24.64	379.64	189	450.80009277804	21.284809482973	0.2717185522933	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.29	40.82	49.055	46.854390666667	0.0315	0.2115	0.83	1.0415	F	F	25.29	379.29	189	450.66506037383	21.115636798572	0.29716292052607	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 03:53:37	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.04	41.77	49.405	46.639769333333	0.0342	0.2542	0.83	1.0842	F	F	25.04	380.04	189	450.58477510453	21.015169975987	0.28724840070653	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.38	41.81	49.595	46.286841333333	0.03	0.19	0.83	1.02	F	F	25.38	381.38	189	450.45265705968	20.8500306655	0.30077001679882	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.81	42.05	49.93	47.321445333333	0.0237	0.2337	0.85	1.0837	F	F	25.81	398.81	189	450.83962439381	21.334382639852	0.31826948937717	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	58.21	42.12	50.165	47.219054666667	0.0143	0.2443	0.85	1.0943	F	F	26.21	398.21	189	450.80137309083	21.286414679784	0.33492131916345	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.07	41.86	48.965	45.829209333333	0.0225	0.1225	0.85	0.9725	F	F	24.07	396.07	189	450.2811667891	20.636029851635	0.25033480787699	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 07:54:09	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.09	41.74	48.915	45.542482666667	0.0323	0.1623	0.84	1.0023	F	F	24.09	395.09	189	450.17361894087	20.502024237605	0.25106973789806	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	61.18	41.84	51.51	45.407617916667	0.0297	0.1897	0.85	1.0397	F	F	29.18	402.18	189	450.12300564553	20.439013455854	0.46673009061704	92	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	61.27	41.91	51.59	45.794916	0.0175	0.2475	0.84	1.0875	F	F	29.27	394.27	189	450.26830788076	20.619999336862	0.47086238651241	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	60.18	40.61	50.395	46.934206666667	0.0265	0.1165	0.88	0.9965	F	F	28.18	406.18	189	450.69490667633	21.153007893561	0.42115624079801	92	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.48	43.13	50.305	46.987998666667	0.0378	0.1278	0.88	1.0078	F	F	25.48	401.48	189	450.71501818157	21.178196673362	0.30480088382352	92	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.69	41.33	49.51	46.060742666667	0.0444	0.1944	0.87	1.0644	F	F	25.69	397.69	189	450.36795511523	20.744282485876	0.3133427322332	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.68	41.33	49.505	45.852408	0.0444	0.2144	0.88	1.0944	F	F	25.68	391.68	189	450.2898649155	20.64687460437	0.3129336515119	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.53	42.18	49.855	45.579282583333	0.0324	0.2024	0.89	1.0924	F	F	25.53	400.53	189	450.18742654457	20.519219929939	0.30682527165466	92	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	55.77	41.42	48.595	46.134416	0.0635	0.1935	0.88	1.0735	F	F	23.77	391.77	189	450.39556024317	20.778736140812	0.23944886287189	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	55.76	41.43	48.595	47.342258666667	0.0635	0.1935	0.92	1.1135	F	F	23.76	402.76	189	450.84739866252	21.344134166675	0.23909049747737	92	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	55.41	41.88	48.645	47.031533333333	0.0569	0.1869	0.9	1.0869	F	F	23.41	405.41	189	450.73129271052	21.198583817491	0.22673385712459	92	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-03 12:03:10	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.65	40.94	48.795	46.079458666667	0.0376	0.1376	0.92	1.0576	F	F	24.65	399.65	189	450.3749684213	20.753034741871	0.27210165396296	92	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.64	40.94	48.79	45.847890666667	0.0376	0.1476	0.91	1.0576	F	F	24.64	400.64	189	450.28817122315	20.644762842732	0.2717185522933	92	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	56.95	40.98	48.965	46.096942583333	0.053	0.153	0.9	1.053	F	F	24.95	398.95	189	450.38151973684	20.761211055903	0.28371785281485	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.22	42.38	49.8	45.27072	0.0392	0.0692	0.87	0.9392	F	F	25.22	404.22	189	450.0716115895	20.375065908217	0.29437113563991	92	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.21	42.38	49.795	46.307401333333	0.0392	0.0692	0.9	0.9692	F	F	25.21	415.21	189	450.46035691275	20.859648532315	0.29397329885606	92	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	57.68	41.8	49.74	46.190906666667	0.0295	0.0795	0.89	0.9695	F	F	25.68	417.68	189	450.41672359012	20.805156840457	0.3129336515119	92	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	58.91	40.49	49.7	44.658381333333	0.0023	0.0123	0.87	0.8823	F	F	26.91	418.91	189	449.84150925502	20.089193659873	0.36483994777467	92	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	58.93	40.49	49.71	44.554842666667	0.0023	0.0123	0.86	0.8723	F	F	26.93	417.93	189	449.80256649655	20.040882581317	0.36570803227719	92	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	58.09	41	49.545	44.206815916667	0.0019	0.0119	0.91	0.9219	F	F	26.09	428.09	189	449.67159226936	19.878549302406	0.32988970731734	92	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	55.13	42.44	48.785	45.198088	0.0229	0.0429	0.54	0.5829	F	F	23.13	422.13	189	450.04433691207	20.341143543653	0.217113158946	92	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-01 20:03:08	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	55.12	42.45	48.785	46.329397333333	0.0184	0.0384	0.69	0.7284	F	F	23.12	436.12	189	450.46859411191	20.869938482799	0.21677397378374	92	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	52.29	42.29	47.29	46.645206666667	0.0217	0.0517	0.64	0.6917	F	F	20.29	435.29	189	450.58680963552	21.017714856723	0.13348826356352	92	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	43.93	41.78	42.855	46.225585333333	0.0375	0.0575	0.62	0.6775	F	F	11.93	424.93	189	450.42971390739	20.821377176895	0.018838535733347	92	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	43.42	42.04	42.73	46.438238666667	0.0121	0.0321	0.65	0.6821	F	F	11.42	420.42	189	450.50934692066	20.920860573866	0.016275709067201	92	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-07-01 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	282	-4	44.04	43.6	43.82	46.541162333333	0.0021	0.0121	0.72	0.7321	F	F	12.04	430.04	189	450.54787365007	20.969021726486	0.019434114712472	92	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L