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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 30, 2020

[ Wednesday, July 29, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, July 31, 2020 ]

DAY 304 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/31/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 82.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 64.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 73.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.971
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 51
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 211
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 18

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-31 04:00:03OBSERVATION20203041882.5999864.9799673.789970000.030.03FF50.59998586.59998211445.35804209427 00.9714488552269996 52415155DRYH
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203041870.270.270.200.00090.00090.030.0309FF38.2574.2212445.936601575100.731144365770669642415150DRYMH
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203041882.0565.5973.8200.00940.00940.030.0394FF50.05586.05212445.936601575100.967504338546759652415155DRYH
2020-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20203041880.8266.8573.83500.0110.0110.030.041FF48.82584.82212445.936601575100.957050189555349652415155DRYH
2020-07-30 03:52:16FORECAST20203041880.7362.4471.58500.01090.01090.030.0409FF48.73584.73212445.936601575100.956189416115429652415155DRYH
2020-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203041881.9463.0272.4800.05520.05520.030.0852FF49.94585.94211445.3580420942700.966663917295699652415155DRYH
2020-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203041881.7262.2471.9800.05030.06030.030.0903FF49.72601.72211445.3580420942700.964929519281889652515160DRYH
2020-07-29 15:58:27FORECAST20203041880.6661.8771.26500.07260.08260.030.1126FF48.66600.66211445.3580420942700.95551037978489652515160DRYH
2020-07-29 11:52:57FORECAST20203041879.962.0570.97500.07250.08250.030.1125FF47.9599.9211445.3580420942700.94758137705289652515160DRYH
2020-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20203041880.3463.8972.11500.08470.09470.030.1247FF48.34599.34211445.3580420942700.9522978831263196525251120DRYVH
2020-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20203041881.1364.6772.900.07090.08090.030.1109FF49.13602.13211445.3580420942700.959911302199299652515160DRYH
2020-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20203041882.0164.6173.3100.04130.06130.030.0913FF50.01586.01211445.3580420942700.967200769962889652415155DRYH
2020-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20203041881.3964.7673.07500.04190.07190.030.1019FF49.39602.39211445.3580420942700.962190131053939652515160DRYH
2020-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20203041881.0464.1372.58500.02770.05770.030.0877FF49.04603.04211445.3580420942700.95909702533719652515160DRYH
2020-07-28 11:58:30FORECAST20203041879.9963.9771.9800.0390.0590.030.089FF47.99601.99211445.3580420942700.948574997997629652515160DRYH
2020-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20203041880.0263.9571.98500.05470.06470.030.0947FF48.02600.02211445.3580420942700.948902867059869652515160DRYH
2020-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST2020304187963.4171.20500.05090.08090.030.1109FF47597211445.3580420942700.936790081681889652415155DRYH
2020-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20203041878.9463.6171.27500.04620.05620.030.0862FF46.94579.94211445.3580420942700.936013485214389652415155DRYH
2020-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20203041878.5363.1470.83500.04840.05840.040.0984FF46.53598.53211445.3580420942700.930507374773429652415155DRYH
2020-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203041878.1963.1870.68500.07870.07870.040.1187FF46.19598.19211445.3580420942700.925671412281519652415155DRYH
2020-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20203041872.0160.0566.0300.09860.09860.040.1386FF40.01591.01211445.3580420942700.789216613358896424251100DRYVH
2020-07-27 07:58:29FORECAST20203041875.1860.0567.61500.13330.13330.050.1833FF43.18594.18211445.3580420942700.8712079414821496524251110DRYVH
2020-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20203041875.3159.6667.48500.15630.15630.040.1963FF43.31595.31211445.3580420942700.8740184439795696524251110DRYVH
2020-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20203041874.9358.0366.4800.17340.22340.040.2634FF42.93581.93211445.3580420942700.8656819561534796524251110DRYVH
2020-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20203041874.9358.0366.4800.15870.22870.050.2787FF42.93597.93211445.3580420942700.8656819561534796524251110DRYVH
2020-07-26 15:52:28FORECAST20203041874.2957.6465.96500.19190.26190.040.3019FF42.29595.29211445.3580420942700.8508038272587496524251110DRYVH
2020-07-26 12:00:01FORECAST20203041872.8453.6963.26500.11680.11680.040.1568FF40.84595.84211445.3580420942700.8131785792022996424251100DRYVH
2020-07-26 08:00:01FORECAST20203041872.8453.6963.26500.11680.11680.040.1568FF40.84589.84211445.3580420942700.8131785792022996424251100DRYVH
2020-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20203041871.6252.5462.0800.1150.1150.040.155FF39.62596.62211445.3580420942700.7773628999010896424251100DRYVH
2020-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20203041874.6354.4764.5500.00840.00840.040.0484FF42.63596.63211445.3580420942700.858839256941969652415155DRYH
2020-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20203041874.6554.4664.55500.00840.00840.040.0484FF42.65609.65211445.3580420942700.859302639697049652515160DRYH
2020-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20203041874.1953.6963.9400.00980.01980.040.0598FF42.19608.19211445.3580420942700.848383601284859642515155DRYH
2020-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20203041874.7153.9464.32500.00910.01910.040.0591FF42.71601.71211445.3580420942700.860686606587519652515160DRYH
2020-07-25 08:03:45FORECAST20203041875.1154.2364.6700.00910.01910.040.0591FF43.11601.11211445.3580420942700.869676763119819652515160DRYH
2020-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20203041878.9856.5967.78500.00120.00120.040.0412FF46.98615.98211445.3580420942700.936532033048069652515160DRYH
2020-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20203041877.8755.9466.90500.00290.00290.040.0429FF45.87614.87211445.3580420942700.92088989235959652515160DRYH
2020-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20203041877.8755.9266.89500.00290.00290.090.0929FF45.87626.87211445.3580420942700.92088989235959652515160DRYH
2020-07-24 16:00:04FORECAST20203041873.8752.2963.0800.06830.06830.070.1383FF41.87615.87211445.3580420942700.840464880550259642515155DRYH
2020-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20203041873.6751.3462.50500.05570.05570.070.1257FF41.67609.67211445.3580420942700.835380986637599642515155DRYH
2020-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20203041873.6751.3262.49500.05570.05570.070.1257FF41.67608.67211445.3580420942700.835380986637599642515155DRYH
2020-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20203041865.4546.3955.9200.05890.05890.080.1389FF33.45603.45211445.3580420942700.54954072737249632515225DRYL
2020-07-24 00:00:04FORECAST20203041869.1949.9459.56500.00060.33060.080.4106FF37.19601.19211445.3580420942700.69557100361996325251100DRYVH
2020-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20203041869.249.9259.5600.00060.33060.090.4206FF37.2615.2211445.3580420942700.6959332666003196325251100DRYVH
2020-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20203041860.7649.154.9300.00760.33760.080.4176FF28.76606.76211445.3580420942700.359031432857329622525245DRYM
2020-07-23 12:00:02FORECAST20203041862.9649.556.2300.00040.00040.070.0704FF30.96606.96211445.3580420942700.446983995501749622515222.5DRYL
2020-07-23 08:00:03FORECAST20203041851.5849.4950.53500.00040.00040.070.0704FF19.58590.58211445.3580420942700.0947613977380239612415217.5DRYL
2020-07-23 04:00:03FORECAST20203041849.9748.7849.375000.010.060.07FF17.97600.97211445.3580420942700.0695640939305989612515220DRYL