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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 27, 2020

[ Sunday, July 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 28, 2020 ]

DAY 301 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/28/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 80.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 61.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 71.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.945
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 49
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 549

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 208
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 15

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION20203011580.9000661.8699271.384990000.090.09FF48.90006548.90006208443.60911382386 00.945060303223592 52415155DRYH
2020-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20203011559.8259.8259.8200.00410.00410.090.0941FF27.82527.82209444.1943066208300.26316928605739222415220DRYL
2020-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20203011579.1461.270.1700.01150.01150.090.1015FF47.14547.14209444.1943066208300.921016033798099252415155DRYH
2020-07-27 07:58:29FORECAST20203011578.9660.3469.6500.01650.01650.090.1065FF46.96546.96209444.1943066208300.918166706125619252415155DRYH
2020-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20203011579.2161.470.30500.01190.01190.090.1019FF47.21547.21209444.1943066208300.922103651056129252415155DRYH
2020-07-27 00:00:03FORECAST20203011580.8863.3572.11500.00930.00930.090.0993FF48.88535.88208443.6091138238600.944823159492939252415155DRYH
2020-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20203011580.5561.9871.26500.00770.01770.090.1077FF48.55551.55208443.6091138238600.940805215217199252415155DRYH
2020-07-26 15:52:28FORECAST20203011580.3762.2771.3200.00350.01350.090.1035FF48.37551.37208443.6091138238600.938519178623489252415155DRYH
2020-07-26 12:00:01FORECAST20203011581.2360.7470.98500.00360.01360.090.1036FF49.23552.23208443.6091138238600.948846692913839252415155DRYH
2020-07-26 08:00:01FORECAST20203011580.960.1970.54500.00350.01350.090.1035FF48.9546.9208443.6091138238600.945059595119089252415155DRYH
2020-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20203011580.859.9670.3800.00320.01320.090.1032FF48.8551.8208443.6091138238600.943869397480869252415155DRYH
2020-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20203011580.460.1270.2600.00020.01020.090.1002FF48.4546.4208443.6091138238600.93890488555219252415155DRYH
2020-07-25 20:00:03FORECAST20203011580.6158.6169.61000.010.090.1FF48.61557.61208443.6091138238600.941552284936539252415155DRYH
2020-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20203011580.7460.5370.63500.00020.01020.090.1002FF48.74556.74208443.6091138238600.943145609994399252415155DRYH
2020-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20203011581.0160.3870.69500.00250.01250.090.1025FF49.01557.01208443.6091138238600.946345758205449252415155DRYH
2020-07-25 08:03:45FORECAST20203011581.7159.3470.52500.00310.01310.090.1031FF49.71554.71208443.6091138238600.953982242625289252415155DRYH
2020-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20203011581.6760.9571.3100.00420.01420.090.1042FF49.67559.67208443.6091138238600.953570693657939252415155DRYH
2020-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20203011582.5961.3371.9600.0040.0140.090.104FF50.59560.59208443.6091138238600.962319780727959252415155DRYH
2020-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20203011581.8659.5370.69500.00590.01590.130.1459FF49.86572.86208443.6091138238600.955499598397769252415155DRYH
2020-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20203011581.5759.4570.5100.00220.00220.130.1322FF49.57568.57208443.6091138238600.952528930686749252415155DRYH
2020-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20203011578.6659.2268.9400.00030.00030.130.1303FF46.66564.66208443.6091138238600.913247300436739252415155DRYH
2020-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20203011578.8459.9569.3950000.130.13FF46.84563.84208443.6091138238600.916224701120199252415155DRYH
2020-07-24 04:00:08FORECAST20203011583.9259.5771.7450000.140.14FF51.92570.92208443.6091138238600.972550678896259252415155DRYH
2020-07-24 00:00:04FORECAST20203011583.9358.8971.4100.00060.00060.140.1406FF51.93562.93208443.6091138238600.972617828479949252415155DRYH
2020-07-23 20:00:02FORECAST20203011583.9257.870.8600.00080.00080.150.1508FF51.92576.92208443.6091138238600.972550678896259252415155DRYH
2020-07-23 16:00:04FORECAST20203011584.2558.371.2750000.140.14FF52.25578.25208443.6091138238600.974695540995089252415155DRYH
2020-07-23 12:00:02FORECAST20203011584.3558.3471.34500.00120.00120.130.1312FF52.35574.35208443.6091138238600.975317159150999252415155DRYH
2020-07-23 08:00:03FORECAST20203011584.3558.3371.3400.00120.00120.130.1312FF52.35569.35208443.6091138238600.975317159150999252415155DRYH
2020-07-23 04:00:03FORECAST20203011584.558.3471.4200.00060.00060.120.1206FF52.5579.5208443.6091138238600.976225589422489252415155DRYH
2020-07-23 00:03:42FORECAST20203011583.8258.671.210000.120.12FF51.82567.82208443.6091138238600.971871620963659252415155DRYH
2020-07-22 19:52:41FORECAST20203011583.8158.5971.20000.120.12FF51.81579.81208443.6091138238600.97180295451239252415155DRYH
2020-07-22 16:00:03FORECAST20203011582.8357.7170.270000.120.12FF50.83577.83208443.6091138238600.964366685297199252415155DRYH
2020-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20203011582.4957.2369.8600.00170.00170.130.1317FF50.49571.49208443.6091138238600.961439124650919252415155DRYH
2020-07-22 07:58:32FORECAST20203011582.4957.2269.85500.00170.00170.150.1517FF50.49570.49208443.6091138238600.961439124650919252415155DRYH
2020-07-22 03:53:04FORECAST20203011582.756.9369.81500.00170.00170.160.1617FF50.7573.7208443.6091138238600.963269523823349252415155DRYH
2020-07-22 00:00:03FORECAST20203011584.8757.9871.42500.00170.00170.140.1417FF52.87579.87208443.6091138238600.978347146371279252415155DRYH
2020-07-21 19:53:19FORECAST20203011584.8757.9771.4200.00170.00170.160.1617FF52.87602.87208443.6091138238600.978347146371279252515160DRYH
2020-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20203011582.9657.2170.08500.00170.00170.160.1617FF50.96600.96208443.6091138238600.965436916283589252515160DRYH
2020-07-21 12:00:04FORECAST20203011584.2356.1370.1800.00040.01040.140.1504FF52.23592.23208443.6091138238600.974569660256159252415155DRYH
2020-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20203011584.2356.1170.1700.00040.01040.170.1804FF52.23591.23208443.6091138238600.974569660256159252415155DRYH
2020-07-21 04:00:04FORECAST20203011583.2754.8669.06500.00060.01060.170.1806FF51.27588.27208443.6091138238600.967883034362299252415155DRYH
2020-07-21 00:00:02FORECAST20203011581.7453.867.7700.00090.00090.140.1409FF49.74576.74208443.6091138238600.954288983228029252415155DRYH
2020-07-20 20:00:03FORECAST20203011581.7653.867.7800.00020.00020.160.1602FF49.76597.76208443.6091138238600.954492565286889252415155DRYH
2020-07-20 16:00:03FORECAST20203011574.8350.5862.70500.00110.00110.160.1611FF42.83586.83208443.6091138238600.830250043470249242415150DRYMH
2020-07-20 11:52:49FORECAST20203011562.8947.9755.4300.00090.00090.120.1209FF30.89582.89208443.6091138238600.378786902968989222415220DRYL
2020-07-20 07:52:50FORECAST20203011550.947.9649.430000.110.11FF18.9569.9208443.6091138238600.0571836536667879212415217.5DRYL
2020-07-20 04:00:04FORECAST20203011549.9348.8149.370000.130.13FF17.93568.93208443.6091138238600.0462962280595719212415217.5DRYL