Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 26, 2020

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DAY 300 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/27/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.91°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.877 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 44 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 517 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.13 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 207 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.02 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 14 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 1 HSdry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-27 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	300	14	75.79994	55.90994	65.85494	0	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	43.79994	516.79994	207	443.02169306381	0	0.87687517558247	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	63.16	63.16	63.16	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.13	0.1317	F	F	31.16	504.16	208	443.60911382386	0	0.39944983497363	95	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-26 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	300	14	78.89	63.49	71.19	0	0.01	0.01	0.13	0.14	F	F	46.89	519.89	208	443.60911382386	0	0.93394754127271	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	300	14	74.13	56.04	65.085	0	0.0095	0.0095	0.13	0.1395	F	F	42.13	515.13	208	443.60911382386	0	0.83460487921893	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.24	53.37	66.305	0	0.0066	0.0066	0.13	0.1366	F	F	47.24	520.24	208	443.60911382386	0	0.93884116301624	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.54	54.3	66.92	0	0.0053	0.0053	0.13	0.1353	F	F	47.54	514.54	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94280679710275	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.5	53.94	66.72	0	0.004	0.014	0.13	0.144	F	F	47.5	525.5	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94229000631606	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.42	53.07	66.245	0	0.0007	0.0107	0.13	0.1407	F	F	47.42	525.42	207	443.02169306381	0	0.9412454524373	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.49	53.38	66.435	0	0.0018	0.0118	0.13	0.1418	F	F	47.49	525.49	207	443.02169306381	0	0.9421602385301	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 08:03:45	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.34	53.68	67.01	0	0.001	0.011	0.13	0.141	F	F	48.34	522.34	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95239931363945	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.3	53.69	66.995	0	0.0002	0.0102	0.13	0.1402	F	F	48.3	527.3	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95195232861952	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.44	53.88	67.16	0	0.0012	0.0112	0.13	0.1412	F	F	48.44	527.44	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95350225911366	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.3	53.81	67.055	0	0.0014	0.0514	0.13	0.1814	F	F	48.3	540.3	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95195232861952	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	78.08	53.57	65.825	0	0.0002	0.0402	0.13	0.1702	F	F	46.08	536.08	207	443.02169306381	0	0.92146751977239	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	77.99	53.61	65.8	0	0.0011	0.0411	0.13	0.1711	F	F	45.99	534.99	207	443.02169306381	0	0.91997763330309	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.76	54.62	67.19	0	0.001	0.041	0.13	0.171	F	F	47.76	533.76	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94558454260029	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.77	54.32	67.045	0	0.0013	0.0513	0.13	0.1813	F	F	47.77	535.77	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94570823085958	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.88	53.7	66.79	0	0.0003	0.0403	0.14	0.1803	F	F	47.88	527.88	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94705421572664	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.68	53.58	66.63	0	0.0002	0.0402	0.15	0.1902	F	F	47.68	541.68	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94458702260093	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.56	53.45	66.505	0	0.0004	0.0304	0.15	0.1804	F	F	47.56	542.56	207	443.02169306381	0	0.94306382761322	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	76.78	52.48	64.63	0	0.0022	0.0222	0.15	0.1722	F	F	44.78	538.78	207	443.02169306381	0	0.89783287590188	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	76.76	53.21	64.985	0	0.0022	0.0222	0.15	0.1722	F	F	44.76	533.76	207	443.02169306381	0	0.89743282078212	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.66	53.19	66.925	0	0.002	0.012	0.15	0.162	F	F	48.66	543.66	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95585678310659	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-23 00:03:42	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.87	51.9	66.385	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.16	0.1606	F	F	48.87	532.87	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95801396408102	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 19:52:41	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.86	51.1	65.98	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.16	0.1606	F	F	48.86	544.86	207	443.02169306381	0	0.957913206848	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	80.46	50.46	65.46	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.16	0.1606	F	F	48.46	544.46	207	443.02169306381	0	0.95372037536986	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	78.47	49.47	63.97	0	0	0.01	0.16	0.17	F	F	46.47	538.47	207	443.02169306381	0	0.92768236786079	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 07:58:32	FORECAST	2020	300	14	78.46	49.47	63.965	0	0	0.03	0.16	0.19	F	F	46.46	537.46	207	443.02169306381	0	0.92752784928692	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 03:53:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	78.07	49.28	63.675	0	0	0.03	0.17	0.2	F	F	46.07	540.07	207	443.02169306381	0	0.92130301912862	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.18	50.21	64.695	0	0.0009	0.0109	0.17	0.1809	F	F	47.18	544.18	207	443.02169306381	0	0.93802292413323	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-21 19:53:19	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.18	50.2	64.69	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.2	0.2009	F	F	47.18	567.18	207	443.02169306381	0	0.93802292413323	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	79.02	50.02	64.52	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.2	0.2009	F	F	47.02	567.02	207	443.02169306381	0	0.9357993187833	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	77.1	49.56	63.33	0	0.0002	0.0102	0.18	0.1902	F	F	45.1	557.1	207	443.02169306381	0	0.9040805584161	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	77.11	49.55	63.33	0	0.0002	0.0202	0.2	0.2202	F	F	45.11	556.11	207	443.02169306381	0	0.90427118226621	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	75.98	47.92	61.95	0	0.0002	0.0202	0.2	0.2202	F	F	43.98	553.98	207	443.02169306381	0	0.88093523336357	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	72.43	48.04	60.235	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.18	0.1816	F	F	40.43	544.43	207	443.02169306381	0	0.78296987125915	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	72.45	48.03	60.24	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.2	0.2016	F	F	40.45	565.45	207	443.02169306381	0	0.78362678302999	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	73.47	48.52	60.995	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.2	0.2016	F	F	41.47	561.47	207	443.02169306381	0	0.81558014944423	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-20 11:52:49	FORECAST	2020	300	14	69.67	47.63	58.65	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.16	0.1608	F	F	37.67	568.67	207	443.02169306381	0	0.6820612359284	95	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2020-07-20 07:52:50	FORECAST	2020	300	14	69.68	47.61	58.645	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.15	0.1508	F	F	37.68	567.68	207	443.02169306381	0	0.68246010288908	95	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2020-07-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	69.59	47.45	58.52	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.17	0.1708	F	F	37.59	567.59	207	443.02169306381	0	0.67886273124161	95	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2020-07-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	72.45	48.79	60.62	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.15	0.1514	F	F	40.45	570.45	207	443.02169306381	0	0.78362678302999	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	300	14	72.47	48.78	60.625	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.14	0.1414	F	F	40.47	584.47	207	443.02169306381	0	0.78428254463543	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2020-07-19 15:52:52	FORECAST	2020	300	14	75.03	49.76	62.395	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.15	0.1514	F	F	43.03	588.03	207	443.02169306381	0	0.8584280161848	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	300	14	68.65	53.27	60.96	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.14	0.1408	F	F	36.65	581.65	207	443.02169306381	0	0.64033917556536	95	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2020-07-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	55.96	53.26	54.61	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.16	0.1608	F	F	23.96	570.96	207	443.02169306381	0	0.14447975413232	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-07-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	300	14	53.43	53.07	53.25	0	0	0	0.15	0.15	F	F	21.43	572.43	207	443.02169306381	0	0.08950246531771	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L