Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 18, 2020

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DAY 292 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/19/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.61°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.19°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.527 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 32 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 403 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.65 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.68 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 13 in SWE DAY: 199 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.58 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 5.94 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 6 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 2 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-19 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	292	6	63.60998	40.76006	52.18502	13.394002083333	0	0.03	0.65	0.68	F	F	31.60998	402.60998	199	443.58145706342	5.9413309600355	0.52690609757706	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	52.17	52.17	52.17	14.889737333333	0.0007	0.0307	0.65	0.6807	F	F	20.17	391.17	200	444.74970504695	6.6222062872266	0.1443820079486	93	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.24	52.05	59.645	14.974381333333	0.0083	0.0383	0.65	0.6883	F	F	35.24	406.24	200	444.78262817172	6.6603446846855	0.66474965427592	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.52	47.2	57.36	14.522397333333	0.0078	0.0378	0.65	0.6878	F	F	35.52	406.52	200	444.60674245962	6.4567557710775	0.67475199999423	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.39	42.4	54.895	13.8828765	0.0081	0.0381	0.65	0.6881	F	F	35.39	406.39	200	444.35753315996	6.1689607547044	0.6701231397704	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.81	45.86	56.335	15.87416	0.0078	0.0078	0.65	0.6578	F	F	34.81	398.81	199	444.55054668366	7.056866506144	0.64916114653547	93	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.4	44.99	55.695	17.031709333333	0.0037	0.0337	0.65	0.6837	F	F	34.4	407.4	199	445.00075878402	7.5791235767222	0.63405975821895	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.31	45.17	55.74	17.031764	0.0047	0.0347	0.65	0.6847	F	F	34.31	407.31	199	445.00078001459	7.5791482650244	0.63071587496497	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-17 11:52:59	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.31	45.95	56.13	15.700138666667	0.0021	0.0321	0.65	0.6821	F	F	34.31	407.31	199	444.48274906713	6.9784407952952	0.63071587496497	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.11	45.97	56.04	15.471905333333	0.0017	0.0517	0.65	0.7017	F	F	34.11	403.11	199	444.39378535928	6.8756185778004	0.62324986697926	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.64	45.4	56.02	14.802575666667	0.0022	0.0622	0.65	0.7122	F	F	34.64	405.64	199	444.13258788239	6.5743062381616	0.64292654045646	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.61	45.49	56.55	15.526664	0.002	0.032	0.65	0.682	F	F	35.61	394.61	199	444.41513459546	6.9002844713786	0.67794093889908	93	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.26	45.45	56.355	17.59702	0.0009	0.0609	0.65	0.7109	F	F	35.26	406.26	199	445.22014759017	7.8345478415472	0.66546809881816	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-16 15:53:35	FORECAST	2020	292	6	68.11	45.75	56.93	17.510865333333	0.0002	0.0602	0.65	0.7102	F	F	36.11	407.11	199	445.1867325664	7.7956049221569	0.69541451796236	93	3	2	3	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-16 11:53:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.81	45.89	56.85	15.747428	0.0025	0.0425	0.65	0.6925	F	F	35.81	407.81	199	444.50117565923	6.9997502596091	0.68498050620762	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-16 07:53:36	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.73	45.46	56.595	15.278169333333	0.0026	0.0426	0.65	0.6926	F	F	35.73	406.73	199	444.31822798311	6.7883691250126	0.68217254241311	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.5	45.6	56.55	15.31719325	0.0009	0.0509	0.65	0.7009	F	F	35.5	402.5	199	444.33345036884	6.8059413267389	0.67404159620736	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.38	45.66	56.52	16.416841333333	0.0014	0.0314	0.66	0.6914	F	F	35.38	393.38	199	444.7617795773	7.3015835664515	0.66976598136432	93	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.99	45.1	56.045	18.60238	0	0.05	0.67	0.72	F	F	34.99	405.99	199	445.60953567477	8.2893979142455	0.65571898787972	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.14	44.6	55.87	18.673774666667	0	0.03	0.67	0.7	F	F	35.14	402.14	199	445.63714989729	8.3217277202776	0.66114843646308	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-15 11:58:37	FORECAST	2020	292	6	63.73	44.67	54.2	16.566757333333	0.0017	0.0217	0.67	0.6917	F	F	31.73	403.73	199	444.82008146472	7.3692263466195	0.53161501051534	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	63.73	46.39	55.06	15.513385333333	0.0022	0.0322	0.66	0.6922	F	F	31.73	408.73	199	444.40995779927	6.8943029213106	0.53161501051534	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-15 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	68.27	46.17	57.22	14.705792083333	0.0019	0.0419	0.66	0.7019	F	F	36.27	411.27	199	444.09478254642	6.5307655374208	0.70091576241504	93	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-14 23:53:06	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.52	45.85	56.685	14.595969333333	0.0015	0.0415	0.68	0.7215	F	F	35.52	414.52	199	444.05187262951	6.4813675153095	0.67475199999423	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	63.16	45.68	54.42	16.776205333333	0.0017	0.0817	0.67	0.7517	F	F	31.16	409.16	199	444.90149800434	7.4637588836283	0.50922326915007	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	67.38	46.49	56.935	16.530369333333	0.002	0.072	0.66	0.732	F	F	35.38	415.38	199	444.80593231978	7.3528063429037	0.66976598136432	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.36	47.03	56.695	14.737521333333	0.0015	0.0315	0.66	0.6915	F	F	34.36	413.36	199	444.1071775624	6.5450390036124	0.63257482697576	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.36	47.03	56.695	14.238688	0.0015	0.0415	0.65	0.6915	F	F	34.36	414.36	199	443.91219291704	6.3207272143416	0.63257482697576	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	65.48	47.27	56.375	14.168587166667	0.0021	0.0521	0.66	0.7121	F	F	33.48	416.48	199	443.88477200494	6.289220084108	0.59944136289686	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-13 23:53:10	FORECAST	2020	292	6	64.44	47.17	55.805	14.872694666667	0.0021	0.0821	0.67	0.7521	F	F	32.44	410.44	199	444.15997176736	6.6058556432513	0.559359194513	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	64.44	47.06	55.75	17.095570666667	0.0019	0.0619	0.67	0.7319	F	F	32.44	409.44	199	445.02555822014	7.6079658790251	0.559359194513	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	65.82	47.11	56.465	16.909266666667	0.0018	0.0518	0.67	0.7218	F	F	33.82	409.82	199	444.95319905606	7.5238322970254	0.61234250330153	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.13	46.6	56.365	15.059128	0	0.06	0.66	0.72	F	F	34.13	414.13	199	444.23275668816	6.6897579447598	0.62399859746585	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.13	47.1	56.615	15.062790666667	0	0.05	0.66	0.71	F	F	34.13	403.13	199	444.23418627451	6.6914065548299	0.62399859746585	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-13 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	292	6	60.02	46.71	53.365	15.119345333333	0	0.06	0.67	0.73	F	F	28.02	413.02	199	444.25625860707	6.716863790375	0.38723967656942	93	2	2	3	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	63.41	47.53	55.47	17.391976	0.008	0.048	0.66	0.708	F	F	31.41	400.41	199	445.14060941711	7.7418747956077	0.51905196754702	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	292	6	63.41	47.53	55.47	18.524761333333	0.008	0.048	0.69	0.738	F	F	31.41	409.41	199	445.57950843463	8.2542540487755	0.51905196754702	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	65.42	48.08	56.75	18.235629333333	0.0079	0.0279	0.68	0.7079	F	F	33.42	414.42	199	445.46760389852	8.1233821047016	0.59715294732889	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-12 11:53:33	FORECAST	2020	292	6	65.9	48.94	57.42	17.878492	0.005	0.115	0.68	0.795	F	F	33.9	403.9	199	445.32926534194	7.9618157077818	0.61536070546455	93	3	2	3	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	65.9	48.94	57.42	17.786324	0.005	0.115	0.71	0.825	F	F	33.9	403.9	199	445.29354332646	7.9201352367125	0.61536070546455	93	3	2	3	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-12 03:58:40	FORECAST	2020	292	6	64.85	48.96	56.905	17.436512	0.0065	0.1265	0.73	0.8565	F	F	32.85	406.85	199	445.15788880199	7.7620008699906	0.57525754959233	93	3	2	3	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 23:58:39	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.93	50.33	58.63	15.5082	0.0022	0.0422	0.74	0.7822	F	F	34.93	427.93	199	444.4079362075	6.8919671562931	0.65353811787341	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	66.93	50.33	58.63	17.049236	0.0022	0.0422	0.78	0.8222	F	F	34.93	428.93	199	445.00756536016	7.5870390036108	0.65353811787341	93	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	292	6	70.55	52.56	61.555	17.081762666667	0.0022	0.0422	0.8	0.8422	F	F	38.55	432.55	199	445.02019646477	7.6017293778846	0.77394621267048	93	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	59.39	51.34	55.365	16.159754666667	0.0013	0.0013	0.77	0.7713	F	F	27.39	423.39	199	444.66174764207	7.1856247515471	0.36367722500181	93	2	2	3	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	53.64	51.34	52.49	16.220325333333	0.0004	0.0004	0.72	0.7204	F	F	21.64	413.64	199	444.6853214561	7.2129405849758	0.17989323509155	93	1	2	3	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	292	6	50.96	50.65	50.805	17.215358916667	0	0	0.72	0.72	F	F	18.96	405.96	199	445.07206505174	7.6620753436478	0.11894239668856	93	1	2	3	1	2	2	6	DRY	L