Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 17, 2020

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DAY 291 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/18/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.13°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.32°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.155 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 21 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 382 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.03 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.72 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.75 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 17 in SWE DAY: 198 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.24 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 7.37 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 5 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-18 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	291	5	53.13002	43.50992	48.31997	16.5846125	0.029999999999973	0.029999999999973	0.72	0.74999999999997	F	F	21.13002	382.13002	198	444.24423990898	7.3676185742475	0.15495796371229	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	46.02	46.02	46.02	18.923357333333	0	0	0.72	0.72	F	F	14.02	375.02	199	445.7336448152	8.4347770363272	0.043391239173241	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 11:52:59	FORECAST	2020	291	5	54.61	46.08	50.345	18.705602666667	0.027	0.027	0.72	0.747	F	F	22.61	383.61	199	445.6494588036	8.3361417049953	0.19201531303145	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	50.5	45.98	48.24	18.480157333333	0.0459	0.0459	0.72	0.7659	F	F	18.5	379.5	199	445.56225043489	8.2340604898308	0.10149922594905	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	291	5	52.79	45.71	49.25	17.782455666667	0.0563	0.0563	0.72	0.7763	F	F	20.79	381.79	199	445.29204387418	7.918386028912	0.14715875274342	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	291	5	55.89	45.38	50.635	18.619321333333	0.0292	0.0292	0.72	0.7492	F	F	23.89	369.89	198	445.03630899608	8.2862740421987	0.22807478883708	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.14	45.5	50.82	20.700118666667	0.0437	0.0637	0.72	0.7837	F	F	24.14	382.14	198	445.84209677137	9.2289843097628	0.23553669163871	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 15:53:35	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.25	45.55	50.9	20.642390666667	0.0423	0.0623	0.72	0.7823	F	F	24.25	382.25	198	445.81979902012	9.2027864583081	0.23886204323371	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-16 11:53:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.81	45.64	51.225	18.869988	0.0233	0.0433	0.72	0.7633	F	F	24.81	382.81	198	445.13360531181	8.3996657906306	0.25618180015806	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-16 07:53:36	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.82	45.45	51.135	18.397613333333	0.0237	0.0437	0.72	0.7637	F	F	24.82	381.82	198	444.95020135096	8.1860217570438	0.25649691587519	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	291	5	57.23	45.34	51.285	18.420291916667	0.026	0.046	0.72	0.766	F	F	25.23	378.23	198	444.95901155648	8.1962748838219	0.26958813788888	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.83	45.62	51.225	19.505289333333	0.0238	0.0438	0.72	0.7638	F	F	24.83	368.83	198	445.37992036668	8.687264210009	0.25681223311567	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.01	45.05	50.53	21.641846666667	0.0357	0.0657	0.72	0.7857	F	F	24.01	382.01	198	446.20538295998	9.6567084798612	0.23163982760357	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.39	45.09	50.74	21.685306666667	0.0293	0.0493	0.72	0.7693	F	F	24.39	378.39	198	446.22212736183	9.6764636732937	0.2431311243051	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-15 11:58:37	FORECAST	2020	291	5	56.94	45.32	51.13	19.506348	0.0241	0.0441	0.72	0.7641	F	F	24.94	382.94	198	445.38033049465	8.6877437189837	0.26029397365327	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	58.58	46.45	52.515	18.539677333333	0.0319	0.0419	0.72	0.7619	F	F	26.58	387.58	198	445.00538219146	8.2502561974263	0.31492033021455	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-15 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	58.38	46.12	52.25	17.83923075	0.0379	0.0479	0.72	0.7679	F	F	26.38	386.38	198	444.73312000564	7.933696749948	0.30800186319993	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-14 23:53:06	FORECAST	2020	291	5	57.67	45.85	51.76	17.674468	0.0294	0.0594	0.73	0.7894	F	F	25.67	389.67	198	444.66900665219	7.8592881286659	0.2839996350097	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	58.19	46.86	52.525	19.692453333333	0.0701	0.0901	0.73	0.8201	F	F	26.19	389.19	198	445.45241065568	8.7720508090579	0.30149182347791	92	2	2	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2020-07-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	58.04	46.36	52.2	19.626908	0.0715	0.0715	0.73	0.8015	F	F	26.04	391.04	198	445.42702828358	8.7423553048351	0.2963964500674	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	57.52	47.3	52.41	17.753153333333	0.0332	0.0332	0.73	0.7632	F	F	25.52	389.52	198	444.69962845278	7.8948206911986	0.27904547143394	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	57.52	47.3	52.41	17.25432	0.0408	0.0408	0.72	0.7608	F	F	25.52	390.52	198	444.50539494018	7.6696383260242	0.27904547143394	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	61.22	46.89	54.055	17.092215166667	0.0538	0.0538	0.73	0.7838	F	F	29.22	394.22	198	444.44222227802	7.5965020923275	0.41152518975373	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 23:53:10	FORECAST	2020	291	5	60.89	47.52	54.205	17.766146666667	0.0635	0.0835	0.74	0.8235	F	F	28.89	388.89	198	444.70468445143	7.9006886473178	0.39900867912988	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	61.04	47.39	54.215	19.988421333333	0.0375	0.0575	0.74	0.7975	F	F	29.04	388.04	198	445.5669713939	8.9061803564386	0.40468596882091	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	60.78	47.32	54.05	19.920634666667	0.0331	0.0531	0.74	0.7931	F	F	28.78	386.78	198	445.54074071928	8.8754543249849	0.39485879325971	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	60.5	46.91	53.705	18.087224	0.0493	0.0593	0.73	0.7893	F	F	28.5	390.5	198	444.82956988042	8.0457320722508	0.38435013583413	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	61.02	47.36	54.19	18.11248	0.0416	0.0516	0.73	0.7816	F	F	29.02	380.02	198	444.83938907029	8.0571445377479	0.40392780848033	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	291	5	60.63	47.23	53.93	17.834256	0.0544	0.0644	0.74	0.8044	F	F	28.63	395.63	198	444.73118459739	7.9314497972931	0.38921910858085	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	61.45	47.7	54.575	20.198016	0.0312	0.0412	0.73	0.7712	F	F	29.45	380.45	198	445.64804741425	9.0012063920417	0.4203031907237	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	61.45	47.7	54.575	21.330801333333	0.0312	0.0412	0.76	0.8012	F	F	29.45	389.45	198	446.08548849168	9.515360932699	0.4203031907237	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	60.16	48.51	54.335	21.240273333333	0.0135	0.0235	0.75	0.7735	F	F	28.16	392.16	198	446.05057607913	9.4742361564115	0.3717036337712	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-12 11:53:33	FORECAST	2020	291	5	59.69	47.79	53.74	20.997006666667	0.0319	0.1119	0.75	0.8619	F	F	27.69	380.69	198	445.95671973121	9.363756217241	0.35444972142858	92	2	2	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2020-07-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	59.69	47.79	53.74	20.904838666667	0.0319	0.1119	0.78	0.8919	F	F	27.69	380.69	198	445.92114462422	9.3219095864246	0.35444972142858	92	2	2	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2020-07-12 03:58:40	FORECAST	2020	291	5	60.44	48.32	54.38	20.530918666667	0.0371	0.1171	0.8	0.9171	F	F	28.44	385.44	198	445.77673310581	9.1522058508878	0.38210900385166	92	2	2	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2020-07-11 23:58:39	FORECAST	2020	291	5	63.29	50.75	57.02	18.746981333333	0.0369	0.0369	0.81	0.8469	F	F	31.29	404.29	198	445.08586799087	8.3440164589554	0.49159311381619	92	2	2	3	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	63.29	50.75	57.02	19.798696	0.0369	0.0369	0.85	0.8869	F	F	31.29	405.29	198	445.49354405896	8.820191248786	0.49159311381619	92	2	2	3	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	66.43	52.76	59.595	19.432976	0.0371	0.0371	0.87	0.9071	F	F	34.43	405.43	198	445.35190353594	8.6545128529682	0.61262747490764	92	3	2	3	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2020-07-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	68.4	52.75	60.575	17.590873333333	0.0016	0.0016	0.84	0.8416	F	F	36.4	407.4	198	444.63646759151	7.8215437807831	0.68401000053876	92	3	2	3	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	68.4	52.75	60.575	17.100294666667	0.0016	0.0016	0.79	0.7916	F	F	36.4	403.4	198	444.44537149548	7.6001468158089	0.68401000053876	92	3	2	3	1	2	1	16	DRY	L
2020-07-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	66.09	50.89	58.49	17.626014916667	0.0018	0.0018	0.79	0.7918	F	F	34.09	398.09	198	444.6501472259	7.8374101277018	0.59982907150938	92	3	2	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	291	5	72.23	55.1	63.665	16.610956	0.002	0.002	0.86	0.862	F	F	40.23	401.23	198	444.25452105452	7.3794923020377	0.80338607195074	92	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	72.23	56.67	64.45	19.513393333333	0.002	0.002	0.87	0.872	F	F	40.23	411.23	198	445.38305983209	8.690934830507	0.80338607195074	92	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-10 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	291	5	71.92	55.09	63.505	20.726064	0.0025	0.0025	0.83	0.8325	F	F	39.92	406.92	198	445.85211723137	9.2407595162728	0.7948690201308	92	4	2	3	1	2	1	18	DRY	L
2020-07-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	62.91	49.96	56.435	21.810322666667	0	0.02	0.87	0.89	F	F	30.91	378.91	198	446.2702836044	9.7332988819568	0.47677181453716	92	2	2	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	291	5	53.23	49.96	51.595	22.237925333333	0	0.02	0.79	0.81	F	F	21.23	364.23	198	446.43488087132	9.927785547012	0.15730212832044	92	1	2	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-10 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	291	5	47.64	47.09	47.365	22.806077333333	0	0.02	0.8	0.82	F	F	15.64	367.64	198	446.65330346425	10.186409779994	0.060145134471719	92	1	2	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L