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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 14, 2020

[ Monday, July 13, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 15, 2020 ]

DAY 288 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/15/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.579
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 341

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 195
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 2

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-15 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020288263.3900244.2299253.8099726.556705416667000.990.99FF31.39002341.39002195446.36969161996 11.854108407280.5794293183678593 3221123.5DRYL
2020-07-14 12:00:03FORECAST2020288266.252.4959.34526.9745453333330.00720.00720.990.9972FF34.2344.2196447.1045403247212.0604416917280.68168219831973933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020288266.3646.8156.58526.504740.00490.00490.990.9949FF34.36344.36196446.9244878588411.8456173503320.68718777910368933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-14 04:00:02FORECAST2020288267.3945.5856.48526.3901951666670.01110.01110.991.0011FF35.39345.39196446.8805560675211.793265090810.72159725776096934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 23:53:10FORECAST2020288267.5545.5956.5726.8583613333330.00910.01910.991.0091FF35.55346.55195446.485750587511.9918756194640.72677249789848934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 20:00:03FORECAST2020288267.2445.0456.1428.9026960.00610.01610.991.0061FF35.24346.24195447.2699479635912.9273073359270.71670253739157934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 16:00:03FORECAST2020288267.2144.7455.97528.8792986666670.00610.01610.991.0061FF35.21346.21195447.2609958700812.9165838816830.7157186689868934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020288267.2846.2956.78527.2924346666670.00260.01260.991.0026FF35.28346.28195446.6525998065212.1902368989160.71801181903438934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 08:00:01FORECAST2020288267.1346.6856.90527.1555493333330.00070.01070.991.0007FF35.13341.13195446.6000036444912.1276684312350.71308707342432934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 04:00:03FORECAST202028826746.4756.73527.0484320.00120.02120.991.0112FF35347195446.5588326394412.0787162186470.70878630767494934221124DRYL
2020-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2020288266.6946.4256.55529.6631120.00070.01070.991.0007FF34.69330.69195447.5606025940113.2760402815340.69841116419198933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020288266.3246.3456.3330.6780906666670.00090.04090.991.0309FF34.32343.32195447.9476852752413.7421797027970.68581522671253933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2020288266.0246.2556.13530.66606400.030.991.02FF34.02343.02195447.9431045019513.7366519110160.67544018844581933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 11:53:32FORECAST2020288266.246.5856.3929.5094266666670.0010.0310.991.021FF34.2344.2195447.5019045386213.2055246351760.68168219831973933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2020288266.0246.456.2129.3947360.00070.06070.991.0507FF34.02344.02195447.4580850414113.1529122808580.67544018844581933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-12 03:58:40FORECAST2020288266.0246.4756.24529.1350693333330.00120.08120.991.0712FF34.02346.02195447.3588278458213.0338304661670.67544018844581933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-11 23:58:38FORECAST2020288265.3446.155.7228.8464293333330.00070.09070.991.0807FF33.34346.34195447.2484187798212.9015199067770.65142419621129933222127DRYL
2020-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020288265.3146.8456.07529.8869920.00110.13110.991.1211FF33.31347.31195447.6460695711913.3787945001060.65034967371312933222127DRYL
2020-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020288265.0846.3155.69529.8887960.00180.15180.991.1418FF33.08345.08195447.6467580571613.3796226316320.64207220141855933222127DRYL
2020-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2020288261.3246.0853.728.5224573333330.00170.12170.991.1117FF29.32342.32195447.1243982483212.753086571730.50003286168758933222127DRYL
2020-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2020288261.3246.1353.72528.0318786666670.00210.08210.981.0621FF29.32338.32195446.9364042198712.5284670548080.50003286168758933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020288266.2646.2156.23528.007160250.00110.09110.971.0611FF34.26338.26195446.9269257064312.51715402830.68375157978279933222127DRYL
2020-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020288267.5944.4856.03528.0573360.00020.14020.991.1302FF35.59333.59195446.9461654559512.5401187381090.72805883004263934222128DRYL
2020-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020288267.5944.5156.0530.3787760.00020.16020.981.1402FF35.59343.59195447.8336392936513.6046378133670.72805883004263934222128DRYL
2020-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2020288267.3946.3556.8730.4070386666670.00020.12020.981.1002FF35.39343.39195447.8444117468313.6176223446360.72159725776096934222128DRYL
2020-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2020288265.3745.2655.31529.1050973333330.00150.15150.991.1415FF33.37336.37195447.3473668787413.0200886548160.6524975058353933222127DRYL
2020-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2020288265.3745.2655.31528.9365053333330.00150.10150.961.0615FF33.37331.37195447.2828828703512.9428035256870.6524975058353933222127DRYL
2020-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2020288265.4244.8655.1428.7004560.00150.10150.971.0715FF33.42341.42195447.192550995112.8346301333630.65428363915092933222127DRYL
2020-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020288263.9945.4954.7428.0505773333330.00210.10210.921.0221FF31.99338.99195446.9435740072212.5370252863260.60199111975317933222127DRYL
2020-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2020288265.7843.8854.8328.6339080.00210.14211.041.1821FF33.78357.78195447.1670744725312.8041408710750.6670405558714933222127DRYL
2020-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2020288265.9843.9154.94528.4278146666670.00210.13211.041.1721FF33.98357.98195447.0881485866812.7097390276850.67404628103706933222127DRYL
2020-07-09 11:58:41FORECAST2020288264.242.7653.4827.5663226666670.00320.15321.041.1932FF32.2354.2195446.757782329612.3154691815420.6098122250301933222127DRYL
2020-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020288264.242.7653.4827.0855293333330.00320.11321.071.1832FF32.2356.2195446.5730924260812.0956685943840.6098122250301933222127DRYL
2020-07-09 04:00:02FORECAST2020288265.8742.2254.04527.0441824166670.00020.08021.041.1202FF33.87354.87195446.5571990628912.0767743509320.67020053105005933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 23:53:58FORECAST2020288262.9145.2154.0629.1031693333330.01130.04130.930.9713FF30.91364.91195447.3466296026213.0192047120210.561184860126933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 19:53:46FORECAST2020288263.8844.3954.13530.3924653333330.01130.03130.930.9613FF31.88363.88195447.8388571463613.610926940740.59787771992188933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2020288267.1942.754.94530.2583133333330.00240.03240.960.9924FF35.19370.19195447.7877156875413.5493010080910.7150618516301934221124DRYL
2020-07-08 11:53:28FORECAST2020288260.2643.0651.6629.2911506666670.00830.03831.021.0583FF28.26358.26195447.4184975509713.1054026228190.45917514388907932221123DRYL
2020-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020288260.343.0451.6728.4508693333330.00830.03830.950.9883FF28.3364.3195447.0969796971912.7202977486930.46071185038379932221123DRYL
2020-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2020288266.4844.7355.60527.1593750833330.00510.02511.011.0351FF34.48378.48195446.6014738806912.1294169418950.69128984555089933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2020288262.5842.5752.57530.0548640.04170.09170.941.0317FF30.58366.58195447.7101234207413.4558668708330.5485640241218933222127DRYL
2020-07-07 19:53:48FORECAST2020288262.6142.5752.5931.823860.03550.08551.051.1355FF30.61374.61195448.3834502140614.2692921459290.54971360015647933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 15:53:31FORECAST2020288264.1943.3653.77532.2417320.01670.08671.041.1267FF32.19376.19195448.5420621246514.461772957750.60944076985892933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2020288261.645.1153.35531.9892266666670.00020.07021.161.2302FF29.6368.6195448.4462386623414.3454483763840.51084302164266933221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2020288247.7845.1146.44532.4798053333330.00020.07021.231.3002FF15.78349.78195448.6323525033314.5714914755440.094934629120064931221122.5DRYL
2020-07-07 04:00:05FORECAST2020288246.0345.3545.6932.10870797101400.191.271.46FF14.03354.03195448.4915883836414.4004854388670.069340321191057931222125DRYL