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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, July 13, 2020

[ Sunday, July 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, July 14, 2020 ]

DAY 287 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/14/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.341
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 342

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 29 in
SWE DAY: 194
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 13.03 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 1

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-14 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020287158.0299837.1899447.6099629.15676583333300.060.930.99FF26.02998342.02998194446.79401065236 13.0270683443270.3410838762403594 2221123DRYL
2020-07-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020287159.024652.5130.4505826666670.00640.06640.930.9964FF27.02343.02195447.8610072412313.6376286241760.37632705642611942221123DRYL
2020-07-13 08:00:01FORECAST2020287154.0440.6847.3630.308340.00590.06590.930.9959FF22.04338.04195447.8067889034313.5722804123930.21480411706838941221122.5DRYL
2020-07-13 04:00:03FORECAST2020287160.1738.3749.2730.1782080.01920.07920.931.0092FF28.17344.17195447.7571696018613.5125089977360.41857941187247942221123DRYL
2020-07-13 00:00:02FORECAST2020287155.6340.2847.95532.7609626666670.00910.06910.930.9991FF23.63327.63194448.1710219501514.6825141183910.26164653619866942221123DRYL
2020-07-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020287160.2839.8350.05533.7612360.00840.09840.931.0284FF28.28341.28194448.5509546554415.1436346381470.42267910499738942222126DRYL
2020-07-12 16:00:03FORECAST2020287160.4539.7850.11533.7127466666670.00460.09460.931.0246FF28.45341.45194448.5325592601115.1212645420880.42903134355963942222126DRYL
2020-07-12 11:53:32FORECAST2020287161.3941.7851.58532.6015920.00380.09380.931.0238FF29.39342.39194448.1103991669714.6091124045990.46444367440108942222126DRYL
2020-07-12 08:00:02FORECAST2020287160.5741.8551.2132.4432226666670.00430.12430.931.0543FF28.57341.57194448.0501329652714.5361902296220.43352646962044942222126DRYL
2020-07-12 03:58:40FORECAST2020287160.3241.5750.94532.1812053333330.00250.14250.931.0725FF28.32344.32194447.9503710850814.4155828710320.42417200574762942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 23:58:38FORECAST2020287160.4242.3551.38531.80892533333300.150.931.08FF28.42345.42194447.8085129762214.2443075528920.42790897490404942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020287160.541.9751.23532.8654506666670.00110.19110.931.1211FF28.5345.5194448.210754676314.7306484460830.43090322924126942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020287160.3942.151.24532.8182186666670.00210.21210.931.1421FF28.39344.39194448.1927954880614.7088891671520.42678718916413942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 12:00:03FORECAST2020287161.2842.451.8431.3506373333330.00080.18080.931.1108FF29.28345.28194447.6336970249614.0336016936090.46027955847259942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2020287161.0142.1351.5730.9111720.00170.13170.931.0617FF29.01341.01194447.4658698239613.8316944662580.45007792521217942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020287161.142.0651.5831.033944250.00230.13230.931.0623FF29.1336.1194447.5127741172913.8880864831190.45347514411372942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020287161.0241.7451.3831.1929066666670.00320.20320.931.1332FF29.02330.02194447.5734828892713.961117878240.45045521802532942222126DRYL
2020-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020287161.1742.5851.87533.5099733333330.00370.20370.941.1437FF29.17340.17194448.4556086013415.0277354854150.45611979417389942222126DRYL
2020-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2020287160.7442.5351.63533.5408053333330.00330.16330.941.1033FF28.74339.74194448.4673116235515.0419547975290.43990917434493942222126DRYL
2020-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2020287155.8542.0148.9332.0078973333330.00120.20120.941.1412FF23.85334.85194447.8843483799514.3358362401520.26851666861973942222126DRYL
2020-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2020287155.8542.6449.24531.8393053333330.00120.12120.941.0612FF23.85329.85194447.8200943689914.2582807190160.26851666861973942222126DRYL
2020-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2020287160.7542.5751.6631.5830293333330.00040.13040.941.0704FF28.75339.75194447.7223693959914.1404287258230.44028513110131942222126DRYL
2020-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020287161.6441.5351.58530.8629040.00270.12270.91.0227FF29.64338.64194447.4474253606613.8095269339530.47392135320104942222126DRYL
2020-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2020287163.6840.325231.4797453333330.00260.15261.031.1826FF31.68355.68194447.6829664238414.0929457730940.55133155646123943222127DRYL
2020-07-09 16:00:03FORECAST2020287163.0141.6252.31531.2918013333330.00210.14211.031.1721FF31.01356.01194447.6112390336714.0065619664090.5259787937215943222127DRYL
2020-07-09 11:58:41FORECAST2020287161.794151.39530.2559226666670.00290.16291.031.1929FF29.79353.79194447.2152888233413.530911193990.47961540032219942222126DRYL
2020-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020287161.794151.39529.7757853333330.00290.13291.051.1829FF29.79355.79194447.0314093584213.3107112823140.47961540032219942222126DRYL
2020-07-09 04:00:02FORECAST2020287160.9340.7950.8629.8084024166670.00290.10291.021.1229FF28.93352.93194447.043907909913.3256647048970.44706123510939942222126DRYL
2020-07-08 23:53:58FORECAST2020287161.842.7852.2931.8267173333330.00050.04050.920.9605FF29.8365.8194447.8152957094114.2524908340860.47999516432572942221123DRYL
2020-07-08 19:53:46FORECAST2020287162.7341.9952.3633.1023466666670.00050.03050.920.9505FF30.73363.73194448.3007979733314.8398084254570.51534635810533943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2020287163.6641.9652.8133.0661026666670.00070.04070.950.9907FF31.66366.66194448.2870252727514.8231048018030.55057726541187943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 11:53:28FORECAST2020287165.2642.7353.99531.8432640.00060.04061.011.0506FF33.26362.26194447.8216034168514.2601015425060.610117022351943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020287165.2942.7454.01531.0051146666670.00060.04060.940.9806FF33.29368.29194447.5017612873813.874843422250.61121360575706943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2020287166.7843.2355.00530.056325750.00060.02061.011.0306FF34.78375.78194447.1388758977113.439351709470.66440118276319943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2020287163.4440.7852.1132.6171453333330.00430.05430.940.9943FF31.44368.44194448.1163165581714.6162750234160.54226859369171943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 19:53:48FORECAST2020287163.4740.7952.1333.9994293333330.00430.05431.051.1043FF31.47376.47194448.6412851524415.2535476705560.54340276516001943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 15:53:31FORECAST2020287163.7440.5252.1333.9815533333330.00520.06521.041.1052FF31.74375.74194448.6345079006615.24529745740.55359330588166943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2020287164.8640.852.8333.1409440.00040.08041.151.2304FF32.86370.86194448.3154635453114.8575976716890.59541539059106943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2020287164.8940.852.84533.1049186666670.00040.08041.221.3004FF32.89365.89194448.3017752837714.8409938088920.59652297943868943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2020287164.2540.3452.29532.4095386376810.00040.19041.271.4604FF32.25372.25194448.0373116467514.5206825629380.57274055161468943222127DRYL
2020-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2020287164.3340.9352.6335.1945546666670.00060.10061.121.2206FF32.33362.33194449.0936906330315.8056524454390.57572973870081943222127DRYL
2020-07-06 20:00:05FORECAST2020287164.3640.9352.64536.56065733333300.11.121.22FF32.36380.36194449.6091389665216.438005663690.57684957154405943222127DRYL
2020-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2020287162.8739.6451.25537.2418586666670.00350.07351.11.1735FF30.87374.87194449.8654975880616.7538272801840.52066441396516943221123.5DRYL
2020-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2020287156.6439.6248.1336.6780813333330.00110.17111.021.1911FF24.64370.64194449.6533611528116.4924225521690.29390959576026942222126DRYL
2020-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2020287142.7939.6241.20536.6679680.00040.17041.021.1904FF10.79352.79194449.6495529640116.4877354192980.03113047278849941222125DRYL
2020-07-06 03:53:38FORECAST2020287142.9241.5842.2536.4209293333330.00470.05471.071.1247FF10.92362.92194449.5564998470216.3732655122690.032014057781918941221122.5DRYL