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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, July 11, 2020

[ Friday, July 10, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, July 12, 2020 ]

DAY 285 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/11/2020 12:00:02 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.582
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 359

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 36 in
SWE DAY: 192
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 15.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 0

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-11 12:00:02FORECAST2020285-064.1243.2453.6835.6328413333330.05680.09680.961.0568FF32.12359.12193448.6933474329715.9882188564010.58217706252357943222127DRYL
2020-07-11 08:00:03FORECAST2020285-058.944.4151.65535.1799826666670.05280.09280.961.0528FF26.9353.9193448.5216220920515.7789828908230.38915614207351942222126DRYL
2020-07-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020285-053.9944.549.24535.3250589166670.03990.07990.961.0399FF21.99348.99193448.5766569388715.8459968350070.22919411849567941221122.5DRYL
2020-07-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020285-160.1344.5852.35535.5140880.06290.10290.961.0629FF28.13343.13192448.0800996342515.913156089460.43396112805324942122125DRYL
2020-07-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020285-160.0443.8451.9437.6834453333330.03630.08630.961.0463FF28.04354.04192448.9033621588316.9162253078620.43064628495258942121122.5DRYL
2020-07-10 16:00:01FORECAST2020285-159.7944.452.09537.6321133333330.03670.08670.961.0467FF27.79353.79192448.8839342219716.8924510861540.42146469382242942121122.5DRYL
2020-07-10 12:00:03FORECAST2020285-159.6743.2951.4835.9850066666670.05210.10210.961.0621FF27.67353.67192448.2591970894816.130610195660.41707232927205942122125DRYL
2020-07-10 08:00:03FORECAST2020285-160.2843.151.6935.8109480.02170.07170.961.0317FF28.28349.28192448.1930249151716.05021710920.43949608701605942121122.5DRYL
2020-07-10 04:00:03FORECAST2020285-159.7142.8751.2935.6195613333330.0280.0780.961.038FF27.71353.71192448.1202313492215.9618460652510.41853532979598942121122.5DRYL
2020-07-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020285-160.7842.2251.535.0121040.01830.02830.960.9883FF28.78350.78192447.8889515295915.6815345514050.45802551715995942121122.5DRYL
2020-07-09 20:00:02FORECAST2020285-163.694453.84535.9090573333330.01040.15040.961.1104FF31.69364.69192448.2303269020616.0955285072650.56638802576106943122126DRYL
2020-07-09 16:00:02FORECAST2020285-163.3344.653.96535.8573426666670.0060.1460.961.106FF31.33364.33192448.2106657129616.0716434273240.55308622152977943122126DRYL
2020-07-09 11:58:41FORECAST2020285-164.4145.3254.86534.5702160.01090.15090.961.1109FF32.41364.41192447.7204852756415.4777938836040.59275280323696943122126DRYL
2020-07-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020285-165.0845.4855.2834.1282906666670.01630.17630.961.1363FF33.08366.08192447.5518155727515.2741784502610.61691740117987943122126DRYL
2020-07-09 04:00:02FORECAST2020285-162.0545.7253.88534.2792610833330.01590.14590.961.1059FF30.05361.05192447.609457765415.343721466110.50540879703977943122126DRYL
2020-07-08 23:53:58FORECAST2020285-167.2146.7856.99536.5738613333330.01090.12090.881.0009FF35.21372.21192448.4828461730416.4027494263120.69038012705072943122126DRYL
2020-07-08 19:53:46FORECAST2020285-164.4346.1855.30537.7982133333330.00950.11950.880.9995FF32.43369.43192448.9467899458716.9693865416890.59347977247724943122126DRYL
2020-07-08 16:00:02FORECAST2020285-166.7144.8555.7837.8262026666670.0130.1530.881.033FF34.71370.71192448.9573790861216.9823528100070.67367662542101943122126DRYL
2020-07-08 11:53:28FORECAST2020285-162.543.7853.1436.6830133333330.00830.20830.881.0883FF30.5365.5192448.5242657512516.4532216208770.52221442745308943122126DRYL
2020-07-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020285-163.2746.2154.7435.8488546666670.01070.14070.881.0207FF31.27372.27192448.2074384479716.067723321440.55086301915157943122126DRYL
2020-07-08 04:00:04FORECAST2020285-168.7846.5957.68535.1514230833330.00160.18160.91.0816FF36.78376.78192447.9420266186615.7457996944780.74021634052239441221114DRYL
2020-07-08 00:00:05FORECAST2020285-169.1443.9756.55537.22439733333300.140.871.01FF37.14374.14192448.729533452116.7036864484220.751032093567259441221114DRYL
2020-07-07 19:53:48FORECAST2020285-169.1742.5255.84538.6107266666670.00080.120811.1208FF37.17382.17192449.2538801847317.3460187717520.751922480073339441221114DRYL
2020-07-07 15:53:31FORECAST2020285-169.0143.8256.41538.5579186666670.00020.10021.011.1102FF37.01381.01192449.2339405985817.3215257439060.747154211736519441221114DRYL
2020-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2020285-165.5943.954.74537.8831680.0080.1981.031.228FF33.59374.59192448.9789283248417.008744170190.63501654440252943122126DRYL
2020-07-07 08:00:03FORECAST2020285-165.6243.954.7637.8513520.0080.2081.091.298FF33.62369.62192448.966893133616.9940039083460.63607233907163943122126DRYL
2020-07-07 04:00:04FORECAST2020285-167.9343.7355.8337.0321519710140.00270.22271.121.3427FF35.93376.93192448.6566752459116.6147221805170.71375193221276944122127DRYL
2020-07-07 00:00:04FORECAST2020285-166.1543.554.82540.1816853333330.00050.11051.081.1905FF34.15364.15192449.8458313390818.0755636433790.65454802076003943122126DRYL
2020-07-06 20:00:05FORECAST2020285-166.1843.4954.83541.1656133333330.00050.08051.111.1905FF34.18382.18192450.2153829501118.5333923712430.65558337825012943121123DRYL
2020-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2020285-164.7543.5254.13540.9272666666670.00050.05051.121.1705FF32.75381.75192450.1259475347918.4224246883420.60506586401302943121123DRYL
2020-07-06 12:00:02FORECAST2020285-164.8443.153.9739.7259666666670.00080.07081.021.0908FF32.84383.84192449.6743556517217.8637484634750.60830826367838943121123DRYL
2020-07-06 08:00:03FORECAST2020285-164.8743.1153.9939.3043226666670.00080.05081.041.0908FF32.87379.87192449.5155245426617.6679032203010.60938740646988943121123DRYL
2020-07-06 03:53:37FORECAST2020285-165.5142.7854.14538.9143306666670.00080.06081.081.1408FF33.51388.51192449.3684650714117.4868730409610.6321961047471943121123DRYL
2020-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2020285-164.5742.6253.59538.6259640.00080.06081.021.0808FF32.57387.57192449.2596330984117.3530864147120.59855940733827943121123DRYL
2020-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2020285-165.3143.8954.639.7235986666670.00140.07141.081.1514FF33.31404.31192449.6734641132917.8626482194860.62511406213181943131123.5DRYL
2020-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2020285-165.4144.4254.91539.4692346666670.00760.04761.091.1376FF33.41404.41192449.5776662936617.7444864118370.62866052636271943131123.5DRYL
2020-07-05 12:00:03FORECAST2020285-158.3643.4350.89539.059180.22310.30310.971.2731FF26.36391.36192449.4231023420817.5540978505380.36990530647975942122125DRYL
2020-07-05 07:54:09FORECAST2020285-158.443.4350.91538.7659480.22310.303111.3031FF26.4390.4192449.3124741775117.4180240097170.37132083659092942122125DRYL
2020-07-05 04:00:03FORECAST2020285-160.843.8552.32537.9966219166670.05310.14311.041.1831FF28.8402.8192449.0218371662517.0613129791330.45876886969012942132126DRYL
2020-07-05 00:00:01FORECAST2020285-157.8343.2750.5539.3645853333330.15720.29721.091.3872FF25.83384.83192449.5382355966817.6958862357420.35132236824395942122125DRYL
2020-07-04 20:00:03FORECAST2020285-161.3642.6351.99540.5999253333330.10290.242911.2429FF29.36400.36192450.0030301515918.2700894239280.47963181901128942132126DRYL
2020-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2020285-158.2541.1249.68541.5337413333330.01140.21141.011.2214FF26.25387.25192450.3534101896718.7048620474020.36602172499597942122125DRYL
2020-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2020285-148.9941.6445.31540.8682840.0080.1881.061.248FF16.99379.99192450.1038069628218.3949702124380.11309595821974941122124DRYL
2020-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2020285-142.9541.6542.340.9654266666670.00630.18631.091.2763FF10.95367.95192450.1402700475818.4401882223480.037736121230433941122124DRYL
2020-07-04 04:00:04FORECAST2020285-142.541.8142.15541.334361250.00130.24131.091.3313FF10.5367.5192450.278669923618.6119812057920.034385511848943941122124DRYL