Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 10, 2020

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DAY 284 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/11/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.63°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.72°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.68°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.475 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 98 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 367 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 37 in SWE DAY: 191 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.17 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 16.70 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -2 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-11 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	284	-2	60.63008	38.71994	49.67501	37.255502916667	0	0.15	0.85	1	F	F	28.63008	366.63008	191	448.17343739373	16.696926803995	0.47526080467027	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-1	48.69	48.69	48.69	37.908761333333	0.0003	0.1503	0.85	1.0003	F	F	16.69	354.69	192	448.98860893222	17.020602017397	0.13224190269769	98	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-1	59.9	47.94	53.92	38.411605333333	0.0144	0.1644	0.85	1.0144	F	F	27.9	365.9	192	449.1786806911	17.253674206854	0.44967971254352	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-1	54.53	44.65	49.59	38.273244	0.0115	0.1615	0.85	1.0115	F	F	22.53	360.53	192	449.12640521456	17.18952449362	0.27415041858867	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-10 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-1	59.94	44.58	52.26	38.049549333333	0.0052	0.1552	0.85	1.0052	F	F	27.94	365.94	192	449.04185035184	17.085840037693	0.45107683763573	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	60.76	44.08	52.42	37.528301333333	0.0086	0.1186	0.85	0.9686	F	F	28.76	361.76	191	448.27714818836	16.82307989806	0.47982681897242	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.75	42.61	52.18	38.574276	0.0142	0.2542	0.85	1.1042	F	F	29.75	372.75	191	448.67413495234	17.307279915713	0.51466369207784	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.7	43.16	52.43	38.523108	0.012	0.252	0.85	1.102	F	F	29.7	372.7	191	448.65473929575	17.283574976602	0.51290470474548	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-09 11:58:41	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.35	44.51	52.93	37.284525333333	0.0147	0.2547	0.85	1.1047	F	F	29.35	372.35	191	448.1844743707	16.710345388681	0.50058667960833	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.19	44.75	52.97	36.925584	0.0183	0.2683	0.85	1.1183	F	F	29.19	373.19	191	448.04791483915	16.544430915418	0.49495468804818	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-09 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.62	44.68	53.15	37.00729175	0.019	0.239	0.85	1.089	F	F	29.62	370.62	191	448.07901156702	16.582190708112	0.51008981699163	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-08 23:53:58	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.57	44.66	53.115	39.542316	0.0126	0.1426	0.85	0.9926	F	F	29.57	376.57	191	449.04060400695	17.756105460474	0.50833024800463	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-08 19:53:46	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	62.32	43.76	53.04	40.69992	0.0102	0.1402	0.85	0.9902	F	F	30.32	377.32	191	449.47765454901	18.293704581933	0.53468762256162	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	62.4	43.04	52.72	40.705496	0.0081	0.1681	0.85	1.0181	F	F	30.4	376.4	191	449.47975664574	18.296296436224	0.53749214914778	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-08 11:53:28	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	60.06	43.68	51.87	39.456745333333	0.0266	0.2266	0.85	1.0766	F	F	28.06	375.06	191	449.00824597628	17.716404014053	0.45527178221498	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	64.26	44.16	54.21	38.750670666667	0.0151	0.1551	0.85	1.0051	F	F	32.26	381.26	191	448.7409794993	17.389013911215	0.60188742337907	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	63.66	43.79	53.725	38.223580416667	0.0157	0.2257	0.85	1.0757	F	F	31.66	379.66	191	448.54115028842	17.144848728234	0.58132885685191	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-08 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	65.32	44.14	54.73	40.25386	0.0228	0.1828	0.83	1.0128	F	F	33.32	377.32	191	449.30939786085	18.086437598175	0.63749301534867	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-07 19:53:48	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	64.51	43.26	53.885	41.584976	0.0152	0.1552	0.96	1.1152	F	F	32.51	384.51	191	449.81093949127	18.705377123282	0.61037419369254	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-07 15:53:31	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	62.9	43.8	53.35	41.539056	0.0203	0.1503	0.96	1.1103	F	F	30.9	383.9	191	449.79366584979	18.68400427418	0.55497277233842	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.7	43.33	52.515	40.65198	0.0148	0.2648	0.96	1.2248	F	F	29.7	380.7	191	449.45958041582	18.271421873872	0.51290470474548	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.72	43.23	52.475	40.622405333333	0.0177	0.2677	1.02	1.2877	F	F	29.72	375.72	191	449.44842920413	18.25767626756	0.51360833172365	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	60.85	43.27	52.06	39.928883971014	0.0169	0.3169	1.02	1.3369	F	F	28.85	380.85	191	449.18669473092	17.935523415234	0.48299144115227	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	64.98	40.7	52.84	42.946998666667	0.0041	0.2041	0.99	1.1941	F	F	32.98	369.98	191	450.32237398679	19.339994395181	0.62618476943985	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	65.01	40.69	52.85	43.933168	0.004	0.144	1.05	1.194	F	F	33.01	388.01	191	450.6915741783	19.80030864456	0.62718709951564	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-06 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	65.31	43.49	54.4	43.754572	0.0041	0.1241	1.05	1.1741	F	F	33.31	389.31	191	450.62478030598	19.716894394882	0.63716206996686	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	66.5	43.62	55.06	42.426445333333	0.0026	0.1326	0.96	1.0926	F	F	34.5	390.5	191	450.12711698643	19.097293521876	0.67576402525288	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	66.53	43.63	55.08	42.007097333333	0.0026	0.0826	1.01	1.0926	F	F	34.53	386.53	191	449.96963374227	18.901918201656	0.67671528330279	98	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-07-06 03:53:37	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	63.76	44.1	53.93	41.679753333333	0.0508	0.0908	1.05	1.1408	F	F	31.76	394.76	191	449.84658533559	18.74949471463	0.58477237566541	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	63.14	44.15	53.645	41.292549333333	0.0544	0.0944	0.99	1.0844	F	F	31.14	395.14	191	449.70090344749	18.56929674085	0.56332777204657	98	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.42	43.17	52.295	42.457970666667	0.0571	0.0871	1.06	1.1471	F	F	29.42	411.42	191	450.13894932975	19.111986306567	0.50305070532992	98	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	64.36	43.13	53.745	42.246684	0.0016	0.0516	1.08	1.1316	F	F	32.36	411.36	191	450.05962940017	19.013526944426	0.60528816353727	98	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-07-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.18	42.31	51.745	41.289470666667	0.021	0.101	0.95	1.051	F	F	29.18	405.18	191	449.69974455369	18.567864411557	0.49460271031623	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 07:54:09	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	61.21	42.32	51.765	40.998370666667	0.021	0.111	0.97	1.081	F	F	29.21	404.21	191	449.59012565323	18.432462619604	0.49565865502147	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	65.21	43.91	54.56	40.44475925	0.0097	0.1197	1.01	1.1297	F	F	33.21	414.21	191	449.38142961556	18.175123732222	0.63384701969447	98	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-07-05 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	58.85	42.29	50.57	41.472532	0.0792	0.1592	1.07	1.2292	F	F	26.85	398.85	191	449.7686380659	18.653044234784	0.41327916523302	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	58.74	42.17	50.455	42.5647	0.0797	0.1697	0.97	1.1397	F	F	26.74	410.74	191	450.17900081429	19.16173411596	0.40950299313827	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	53.6	42.25	47.925	42.891606666667	0.105	0.235	0.97	1.205	F	F	21.6	400.6	191	450.30160899161	19.314159494235	0.24749959297589	98	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	56.56	42.71	49.635	41.631594666667	0.0898	0.2198	1.02	1.2398	F	F	24.56	402.56	191	449.82847388807	18.727076694433	0.33681220896608	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	56.56	42.72	49.64	41.423369333333	0.0898	0.2198	1.05	1.2698	F	F	24.56	396.56	191	449.75013927769	18.630166127018	0.33681220896608	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	50.7	41.55	46.125	41.558658583333	0.1476	0.2676	1.06	1.3276	F	F	18.7	396.7	191	449.80103996377	18.693127850283	0.17403089254516	98	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	55.84	39.66	47.75	42.295394666667	0.0566	0.1566	1.01	1.1666	F	F	23.84	390.84	191	450.07791983231	19.03622325006	0.31394074153468	98	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-07-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	55.86	39.66	47.76	43.799421333333	0.0501	0.1501	1.05	1.2001	F	F	23.86	401.86	191	450.64155654677	19.737839405501	0.31456702656197	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	55.17	41.34	48.255	43.834244	0.007	0.157	1.03	1.187	F	F	23.17	405.17	191	450.65458091726	19.754102859645	0.29327846212007	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 12:03:10	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	57	41.96	49.48	42.873532	0.0015	0.1215	1.02	1.1415	F	F	25	404	191	450.29483264509	19.305729916844	0.35109922693663	98	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-07-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	44.88	41.95	43.415	43.084217333333	0.0007	0.1207	1.02	1.1407	F	F	12.88	392.88	191	450.37380105307	19.40400272581	0.073164431343006	98	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	284	-2	44.24	43.75	43.995	43.56598525	0	0.11	1	1.11	F	F	12.24	390.24	191	450.55421705327	19.628838374468	0.065618510305069	98	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L