Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 8, 2020

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DAY 252 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/09/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.04°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.50°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.77°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.082 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 285 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.18 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.91 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.39 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 109 in SWE DAY: 159 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.91 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.71 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-09 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	252	-34	37.04	30.50006	33.77003	108.80391625	0.18000000000001	0.91000000000001	2.39	3.3	T	F	5.04	285.04	159	456.91158205953	49.71376950806	0.08198657926633	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-33	35.29	35.29	35.29	108.98201466667	0.0056	0.7356	2.39	3.1256	F	F	3.29	283.29	160	457.50984405808	49.860344535282	0.060031316356647	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-08 11:55:08	FORECAST	2020	252	-33	42.86	34.27	38.565	108.53323915463	0.1538	0.8838	2.39	3.2738	F	F	10.86	290.86	160	457.34972350866	49.637646918868	0.19722282164534	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-08 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	252	-33	43.86	31.96	37.91	108.43348933333	0.0942	0.8242	2.39	3.2142	F	F	11.86	291.86	160	457.31410854006	49.588164510362	0.22397595250602	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-08 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-33	42.88	34.03	38.455	108.72426716667	0.1638	0.8938	2.39	3.2838	F	F	10.88	290.88	160	457.41790352784	49.732426349978	0.19773822912449	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.88	32.69	38.785	109.34099333333	0.1161	0.4261	2.39	2.8161	F	F	12.88	292.88	159	457.10378391782	49.98018179	0.25326770610568	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-07 19:55:10	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.42	30.94	37.68	109.42541291764	0.1146	0.8246	2.39	3.2146	F	F	12.42	299.42	159	457.13397101466	50.02207353696	0.23981435537876	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.48	32.18	38.33	109.44259560553	0.1084	0.8184	2.39	3.2084	F	F	12.48	299.48	159	457.140114477	50.030600683772	0.24154677381098	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.14	31.56	37.85	109.36355751	0.1427	0.8527	2.39	3.2427	F	F	12.14	299.14	159	457.11185314134	49.991378439526	0.2318199352854	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	43.65	33.35	38.5	109.78659705295	0.1308	0.8308	2.39	3.2208	F	F	11.65	294.65	159	457.26305163524	50.201354397081	0.21819310611458	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-07 03:59:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	43.89	32.85	38.37	110.10213035724	0.1508	0.9508	2.39	3.3408	T	F	11.89	299.89	159	457.37572060788	50.358041212606	0.22480911091098	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 23:55:14	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.31	32.33	38.32	110.02873459601	0.1464	0.8764	2.39	3.2664	F	F	12.31	295.31	159	457.34952089421	50.321589052082	0.23665590894171	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 19:55:36	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.85	32.5	38.675	109.84966542501	0.1737	0.8637	2.39	3.2537	F	F	12.85	299.85	159	457.28557897902	50.232667854527	0.25237839760944	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.37	32.28	38.325	109.85237512966	0.185	0.875	2.39	3.265	F	F	12.37	300.37	159	457.28654677551	50.234013278128	0.23837585897199	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.05	32.16	38.605	110.03939407912	0.1647	0.9447	2.39	3.3347	T	F	13.05	300.05	159	457.35332625915	50.326882901626	0.25833803183395	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.74	32.11	38.425	110.06328035324	0.1645	0.9645	2.39	3.3545	T	F	12.74	297.74	159	457.36185312688	50.338745863581	0.24913171366428	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-06 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.18	33.01	38.595	111.03644406498	0.1655	1.0655	2.39	3.4555	T	F	12.18	287.18	159	457.70881136493	50.822358831171	0.23295284250807	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	39.32	33.3	36.31	111.29140860084	0.1448	1.0148	2.4	3.4148	T	F	7.32	273.32	159	457.79957117789	50.949159133249	0.11898635014128	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	43.7	33.28	38.49	112.81948665799	0.1705	1.0805	2.63	3.7105	T	F	11.7	290.7	159	458.34229161454	51.7099420536	0.21956213018683	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.16	30.82	37.49	112.72755336123	0.1431	1.0231	2.63	3.6531	T	F	12.16	292.16	159	458.30969960884	51.664131118626	0.23238600552585	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	39.8	32.83	36.315	110.94153456174	0.1449	0.8949	2.63	3.5249	T	F	7.8	292.8	159	457.67501138179	50.775168093258	0.1280808374653	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	39.8	33.14	36.47	110.47883309932	0.1148	0.8248	2.63	3.4548	T	F	7.8	292.8	159	457.51011344111	50.545183464111	0.1280808374653	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.59	32.95	38.77	109.76207373801	0.1061	0.8061	2.62	3.4261	T	F	12.59	294.59	159	457.2542911966	50.189179227343	0.24474041942001	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 00:02:23	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	42.86	31.91	37.385	111.48486424081	0.1834	0.9334	2.66	3.5934	T	F	10.86	286.86	159	457.86839644094	51.045396017374	0.19722282164534	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	42.89	31.84	37.365	111.99567177849	0.1812	0.9412	2.65	3.5912	T	F	10.89	302.89	159	458.04996279321	51.29961329114	0.19799623716153	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	43.19	33.81	38.5	111.57377240158	0.2054	0.9254	2.68	3.6054	T	F	11.19	300.19	159	457.90001574946	51.089632139908	0.20583048043512	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	42.75	31.79	37.27	111.21915054759	0.2339	1.0139	2.67	3.6839	T	F	10.75	298.75	159	457.7738554221	50.913219342943	0.19440260543237	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	42.78	31.81	37.295	110.54788717452	0.2339	1.0139	2.49	3.5039	T	F	10.78	302.78	159	457.53473529595	50.579498295919	0.19516931519598	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44	33.78	38.89	109.39840500944	0.2144	0.9444	2.51	3.4544	T	F	12	311	159	457.12431412163	50.008670855941	0.22787898722995	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	47.15	33.71	40.43	110.04132988509	0.0947	0.8247	2.66	3.4847	T	F	15.15	300.15	159	457.35401731802	50.327844293962	0.32500242995733	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	47.18	33.73	40.455	111.03275660208	0.0947	0.7847	2.65	3.4347	T	F	15.18	317.18	159	457.70749830628	50.82052525439	0.32600420586438	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	47.97	33.41	40.69	111.06620618709	0.131	0.831	2.51	3.341	T	F	15.97	311.97	159	457.71940882805	50.837158236729	0.35281724463235	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	47.9	33.79	40.845	109.37603892048	0.1029	0.7429	2.51	3.2529	F	F	15.9	311.9	159	457.11631644661	49.99757201885	0.35040923699464	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	47.93	33.8	40.865	109.13779157525	0.1029	0.7729	2.52	3.2929	F	F	15.93	310.93	159	457.03109566291	49.879364461866	0.35144051133264	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.88	32.32	39.1	109.52086569036	0.1333	0.7233	2.47	3.1933	F	F	13.88	315.88	159	457.16809560748	50.069445596947	0.28382588084645	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.85	33.29	39.07	109.85264810771	0.1786	0.6186	2.44	3.0586	F	F	12.85	307.85	159	457.28664427182	50.23414881755	0.25237839760944	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 19:55:49	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	44.88	33.3	39.09	110.96725716768	0.1786	0.6186	2.46	3.0786	F	F	12.88	323.88	159	457.68417274091	50.787957298116	0.25326770610568	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.4	33.58	39.49	110.28866608849	0.1345	0.4645	2.44	2.9045	F	F	13.4	326.4	159	457.44228534742	50.450699463439	0.26893992171305	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 12:02:20	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	46.31	33.39	39.85	109.59378563233	0.1933	0.6433	2.42	3.0633	F	F	14.31	324.31	159	457.19415908596	50.105638663221	0.29748707046162	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.84	34.46	40.15	108.582628	0.1889	0.6289	2.4	3.0289	F	F	13.84	326.84	159	456.83231412056	49.604053222532	0.28257047920289	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.39	32.98	39.185	108.6924170654	0.2372	0.6672	2.4	3.0672	F	F	13.39	326.39	159	456.87164736704	49.658483640973	0.26863401033653	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.76	33.7	39.73	109.38270855231	0.3404	1.0204	2.39	3.4104	T	F	13.76	325.76	159	457.11870142376	50.000881691646	0.28006770502226	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-06-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	45.77	33.98	39.875	110.48323324158	0.3215	1.0015	2.39	3.3915	T	F	13.77	340.77	159	457.51168248044	50.547369926234	0.28037996404481	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-06-01 15:55:32	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	46.6	31.87	39.235	111.79528674475	0.1718	1.1718	2.41	3.5818	T	F	14.6	333.6	159	457.97876408522	51.199867253916	0.30686646959986	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-06-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	36.29	33.83	35.06	108.28475587261	0.1164	0.8564	2.41	3.2664	F	F	4.29	329.29	159	456.72554259973	49.456413881196	0.071934276849173	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	35.61	33.85	34.73	108.2493675425	0.1106	0.8506	2.42	3.2706	F	F	3.61	326.61	159	456.71285237152	49.43887741775	0.063660257056398	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-01 04:02:17	FORECAST	2020	252	-34	34.65	34.33	34.49	108.46254724569	0.063	0.843	2.46	3.303	F	F	2.65	322.65	159	456.78928119238	49.544528992651	0.053259518491529	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L