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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 5, 2020

[ Thursday, June 4, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 6, 2020 ]

DAY 249 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.426
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 274

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 156
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-06 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020249-3752.0800835.9900644.03507110.14249625002.782.78FF20.08008274.08008156455.7791500651 50.2006533268730.4263465801283986 2121122.5DRYL
2020-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2020249-3634.7234.7234.72110.985130666670.01270.01272.782.7927FF2.72256.72157456.6208867744650.6781287837920.041230477928118861121122DRYL
2020-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2020249-3653.0137.5745.29111.034750666670.23610.23612.783.0161FF21.01275.01157456.6386917371950.7027632817920.45909973163396862122125DRYL
2020-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2020249-3653.7537.7145.73110.666898666670.23840.23842.783.0184FF21.75275.75157456.5066433903950.5201744447450.48537473997737862122125DRYL
2020-06-05 04:00:03FORECAST2020249-3650.4438.0344.235110.549601188410.23490.23492.783.0149FF18.44272.44157456.4645110005350.461969647770.36993099305448862122125DRYL
2020-06-05 00:02:23FORECAST2020249-3754.4437.6346.035111.2740640.27440.27442.783.0544FF22.44270.44156456.1870448032150.7617864194030.50993410296793863122126DRYL
2020-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2020249-3754.6737.8846.275112.286145333330.23810.25812.783.0381FF22.67280.67156456.5508765472451.2643380760440.51811678754926863122126DRYL
2020-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2020249-3750.6538.3244.485112.4052640.26890.28892.783.0689FF18.65276.65156456.5936368686651.3235282929420.37702765587377862122125DRYL
2020-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2020249-3755.3939.0747.23111.1646040.26390.28392.783.0639FF23.39281.39156456.1476390993250.7074716660110.54366711041904863122126DRYL
2020-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2020249-3756.8640.6448.75110.7234440.06530.09532.782.8753FF24.86284.86156455.9887099745250.4886403934960.59516506657244863122126DRYL
2020-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2020249-3756.6640.0648.36110.703875083330.09490.12492.782.9049FF24.66284.66156455.9816560916950.4789362962650.58823417135962863122126DRYL
2020-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2020249-3756.1639.3947.775111.529049333330.23460.27462.783.0546FF24.16271.16156456.2787972894750.8883404926510.57079066568596863122126DRYL
2020-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2020249-3755.5239.5847.55112.643794666670.21540.25542.783.0354FF23.52287.52156456.6792239273751.4420807286070.54826426913381863122126DRYL
2020-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2020249-3755.3940.2947.84112.479740.09680.11682.782.8968FF23.39287.39156456.6203651295651.3605399484780.54366711041904863122126DRYL
2020-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2020249-3755.0240.3547.685111.262750666670.11390.12392.782.9039FF23.02288.02156456.1829725001250.7561723276590.53055292226085863122126DRYL
2020-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2020249-3754.1639.8246.99110.996360.11240.13242.782.9124FF22.16287.16156456.0870497342350.6240023636390.4999672648111863122126DRYL
2020-06-03 04:00:03FORECAST2020249-3753.1839.8546.515111.40895650.05670.07672.782.8567FF21.18286.18156456.235591163750.8287311297090.46512427810805862121122.5DRYL
2020-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020249-3755.840.2648.03111.623642666670.03570.05572.772.8257FF23.8278.8156456.3128201129850.935299176510.55814309798443863121123DRYL
2020-06-02 19:55:48FORECAST2020249-3755.539.8647.68112.718380.03890.05892.792.8489FF23.5294.5156456.705975209951.479157661980.54755741934463863121123DRYL
2020-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2020249-3756.2439.9948.115112.499658666670.03260.04262.792.8326FF24.24296.24156456.6275127677151.3704393241770.57359186679297863121123DRYL
2020-06-02 12:02:20FORECAST2020249-3759.2940.5949.94111.141082666670.020.022.792.81FF27.29299.29156456.1391699668250.6958011967870.67641456451827863121123DRYL
2020-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020249-3751.8240.1545.985110.953357333330.01290.01292.782.7929FF19.82292.82156456.0715591172850.602670668310.41726648355194862121122.5DRYL
2020-06-02 04:00:03FORECAST2020249-3759.541.0150.255110.407154666670.00570.00572.782.7857FF27.5295.5156455.8746561973150.3318236753890.68311814030951863121123DRYL
2020-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2020249-3758.5339.1648.845110.384878666670.00220.00222.782.7822FF26.53293.53156455.866620028350.3207815400070.651685705171863121123DRYL
2020-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2020249-3758.5638.8548.705111.361809333330.0030.0032.782.783FF26.56308.56156456.2186252961150.805331564540.65267503398563863121123DRYL
2020-06-01 15:55:31FORECAST2020249-3759.2641.0850.17111.26740.01440.01442.792.8044FF27.26309.26156456.1846460700750.7584794881370.67545215704389863121123DRYL
2020-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2020249-3761.2741.9651.615110.158213333330.0180.0182.782.798FF29.27307.27156455.7848236139650.2084418337630.73708864028314864121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 08:00:03FORECAST2020249-3761.2841.9951.635110.055166666670.0180.0282.782.808FF29.28305.28156455.7476217277650.1573804671850.73737970537582864121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 04:02:17FORECAST2020249-3756.9243.1850.05109.850705583330.04680.05682.792.8468FF24.92304.92156455.6737783965350.0560860726820.59723863377663863121123DRYL
2020-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2020249-3761.5840.8551.215109.7358040.0030.0032.762.763FF29.58315.58156455.6322636129249.9991727759040.74603443695058864121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2020249-3761.5940.8651.225110.9124320.0030.0032.792.793FF29.59328.59156456.0568152353850.5823705079310.7463203320317864121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2020249-3762.0441.5451.79110.6526560.00530.00532.82.8053FF30.04329.04156455.9631918148450.4535382125490.75900896207455864121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2020249-3757.0839.5448.31109.817677333330.00380.00382.772.7738FF25.08326.08156455.6618462886950.0397256088430.6027546438708863121123DRYL
2020-05-31 07:59:09FORECAST2020249-3758.2441.5349.885109.993977333330.0080.0082.772.778FF26.24316.24156455.7255265592650.1270632385810.64206986100607863121123DRYL
2020-05-31 04:00:03FORECAST2020249-3757.1239.7748.445109.601814916670.00380.00382.812.8138FF25.12328.12156455.5838370709249.9328153896720.6041304886297863121123DRYL
2020-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2020249-3754.3640.3547.355113.670350666670.00340.00341.491.4934FF22.36298.36156457.0469707068451.9526894313840.50708679563272863121123DRYL
2020-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2020249-3754.3840.3747.375114.86890.00340.00342.172.1734FF22.38325.38156457.4751196989752.5496637771890.50779866198769863121123DRYL
2020-05-30 16:00:01FORECAST2020249-3759.5840.7450.16114.2906360.00480.00482.192.1948FF27.58330.58156457.268713413752.2615320789540.68565632077033863121123DRYL
2020-05-30 12:00:03FORECAST2020249-3753.937.4845.69114.014678666670.12170.13172.32.4317FF21.9314.9156457.1701059427252.1241027250650.4907122293194862122125DRYL
2020-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2020249-3753.9137.4945.7113.199161333330.12170.13172.352.4817FF21.91317.91156456.878293938851.7182397052770.49106813166857862122125DRYL
2020-05-30 03:55:51FORECAST2020249-3756.0337.1146.57112.489041333330.03120.04122.372.4112FF24.03324.03156456.6237028761451.3651625866140.5662311632558863121123DRYL
2020-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2020249-3750.7833.2942.035113.092506666670.20780.24782.722.9678FF18.78312.78156456.8400855811151.6651904241820.38144190446127862122125DRYL
2020-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2020249-3750.7938.5144.65115.4235680.14880.18882.762.9488FF18.79329.79156457.6728189375952.8262297383940.38178210973861862122125DRYL
2020-05-29 16:00:01FORECAST2020249-3748.237.5442.87114.825405333330.00930.03932.712.7493FF16.2335.2156457.4596051992652.5279845906310.29738757571851862121122.5DRYL
2020-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020249-3742.0240.4241.22112.694061333330.00630.08632.712.7963FF10.02328.02156456.6972534684651.4670682931390.13926528842813861121122DRYL
2020-05-29 07:55:42FORECAST2020249-3742.0240.4441.23112.219554666670.00040.08042.382.4604FF10.02328.02156456.5269666930351.2312528956160.13926528842813861121122DRYL
2020-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2020249-3743.1740.9542.06111.888087250.00440.08442.32.3844FF11.17329.17156456.4078907659251.0666059036060.16331613228106861121122DRYL