Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 30, 2020

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DAY 274 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/01/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.102 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 361 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.34 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.76 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 60 in SWE DAY: 181 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.18 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 27.16 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -12 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-01 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	274	-12	43.16	35.15	39.155	60.203291666667	0.069999999999993	0.33999999999999	2.76	3.1	F	F	11.16	361.16	181	451.18039281709	27.162544783048	0.10204341196769	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-01 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	274	-11	37.46	37.46	37.46	60.970152	0.0039	0.2739	2.76	3.0339	F	F	5.46	355.46	182	452.02129249214	27.559806910482	0.03512533266164	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	274	-11	49.18	38.21	43.695	61.194213333333	0.096	0.366	2.76	3.126	F	F	17.18	367.18	182	452.10429074748	27.666166416916	0.24177237191715	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-11	44.75	39.34	42.045	61.022997333333	0.1699	0.4399	2.76	3.1999	F	F	12.75	362.75	182	452.04087206073	27.584888930319	0.13145902297355	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	274	-11	44.27	39.25	41.76	61.205619166667	0.2178	0.4878	2.76	3.2478	F	F	12.27	362.27	182	452.10851450706	27.671581560926	0.12202208517148	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-29 23:58:48	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	48.46	39.03	43.745	61.526350666667	0.2089	0.5089	2.76	3.2689	F	F	16.46	371.46	181	451.67262675035	27.789768419976	0.22104326598703	85	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 19:53:57	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	44.39	39.47	41.93	62.632130666667	0.2139	0.5139	2.76	3.2739	F	F	12.39	367.39	181	452.08275659291	28.314906283074	0.12433561269908	85	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 16:03:04	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	44.08	39.47	41.775	62.583258666667	0.2358	0.5358	2.76	3.2958	F	F	12.08	367.08	181	452.06465446337	28.291679204339	0.11842094386799	85	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	49.94	40.06	45	60.871098666667	0.1902	0.4902	2.76	3.2502	F	F	17.94	372.94	181	451.4290520329	27.478982367294	0.26474812507516	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	49.61	39.98	44.795	60.559225333333	0.2567	0.5467	2.76	3.3067	F	F	17.61	373.61	181	451.31297789216	27.331164324029	0.25463744299725	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	49.89	39.77	44.83	60.258146333333	0.2581	0.5481	2.76	3.3081	F	F	17.89	373.89	181	451.20083396108	27.188525878549	0.26320320236218	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	49.78	40.31	45.045	59.779624	0.1923	0.2023	2.76	2.9623	F	F	17.78	373.78	181	451.02242053587	26.961950715204	0.25982063654378	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-28 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	50.35	40.26	45.305	60.959094666667	0.212	0.322	2.76	3.082	F	F	18.35	388.35	181	451.46178607272	27.520701755589	0.27758775331235	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	50.46	40.43	45.445	60.936790666667	0.1814	0.2814	2.76	3.0414	F	F	18.46	388.46	181	451.45348979659	27.510126803471	0.28108351715746	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	50.41	40.63	45.52	59.597457333333	0.1658	0.2558	2.76	3.0158	F	F	18.41	389.41	181	450.95444406501	26.875738239441	0.27949190215818	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	47.15	41.16	44.155	59.640425333333	0.1321	0.1921	2.76	2.9521	F	F	15.15	382.15	181	450.97048063977	26.896071278134	0.18605524813709	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-28 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	47.85	41.34	44.595	59.491407083333	0.1265	0.2565	2.76	3.0165	F	F	15.85	384.85	181	450.91485635655	26.82555927943	0.20430474607721	85	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-27 23:54:33	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	52.36	41.3	46.83	62.144161333333	0.1167	0.3967	2.85	3.2467	F	F	20.36	396.36	181	451.90191251182	28.083065357977	0.34455896266846	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	52.36	41.78	47.07	63.140553333333	0.1312	0.3212	2.85	3.1712	F	F	20.36	396.36	181	452.27094250674	28.556637566464	0.34455896266846	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	52.11	42.01	47.06	63.040185333333	0.1394	0.3694	2.85	3.2194	F	F	20.11	397.11	181	452.233811871	28.508903314348	0.33589968007551	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	50.64	42.41	46.525	62.118778666667	0.0836	0.3936	2.85	3.2436	F	F	18.64	394.64	181	451.89249942358	28.07101015282	0.28684926728832	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-27 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	50.65	42.41	46.53	61.705170666667	0.0833	0.4033	2.89	3.2933	F	F	18.65	392.65	181	451.73902855163	27.874633853573	0.28717122140348	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	57.98	43.1	50.54	61.823283	0.0665	0.4365	2.92	3.3565	F	F	25.98	394.98	181	451.7828710448	27.930700291155	0.55214361959299	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	63.87	43.67	53.77	62.481949333333	0.0166	0.3266	2.91	3.2366	F	F	31.87	392.87	181	452.02712245126	28.243535762292	0.75419576861895	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	63.89	44.11	54	64.618178666667	0.005	0.325	2.94	3.265	F	F	31.89	408.89	181	452.81648847236	29.26017675532	0.75479073706262	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	63.18	44.64	53.91	64.458169333333	0.0059	0.3259	2.93	3.2559	F	F	31.18	412.18	181	452.75751110974	29.18392031805	0.73320410474073	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	62.53	45.14	53.835	61.940277333333	0.0051	0.2851	2.92	3.2051	F	F	30.53	413.53	181	451.82628557909	27.986245435259	0.71263402580688	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	64.13	45.71	54.92	61.484248	0.0049	0.3849	2.91	3.2949	F	F	32.13	416.13	181	451.65698824579	27.769790276237	0.76186967392467	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-26 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	63.84	45.64	54.74	61.234590416667	0.0051	0.4151	2.92	3.3351	F	F	31.84	412.84	181	451.56422171655	27.651350163634	0.7533018671212	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-25 23:54:09	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	59.88	42.86	51.37	65.232625970383	0.0075	0.2375	2.94	3.1775	F	F	27.88	417.88	181	453.04274314711	29.553167812312	0.62196397271766	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	59.89	42.87	51.38	67.110218666667	0.0075	0.2875	2.89	3.1775	F	F	27.89	416.89	181	453.73193506905	30.450049378534	0.62232319206124	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	59.65	43	51.325	66.84596	0.005	0.265	2.86	3.125	F	F	27.65	419.65	181	453.63513452764	30.323676057229	0.61367341630309	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	59.64	41.44	50.54	64.553677333333	0.0064	0.2364	2.84	3.0764	F	F	27.64	422.64	181	452.79271700209	29.229434952236	0.61331174697028	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	55.63	41.16	48.395	64.648469333333	0.0055	0.2255	2.83	3.0555	F	F	23.63	402.63	181	452.82765052073	29.274614477975	0.46374133997737	85	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-25 03:54:27	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	60.35	42.39	51.37	63.947041333333	0.0057	0.2157	2.83	3.0457	F	F	28.35	422.35	181	452.56895530776	28.940445691249	0.6387283513276	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-24 23:58:52	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	57.66	43.38	50.52	63.48888	0.0099	0.3399	2.85	3.1899	F	F	25.66	417.66	181	452.39973079542	28.722352220503	0.54015999719672	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-24 19:54:41	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	57.68	43.39	50.535	65.522718666667	0.0099	0.3199	2.8	3.1199	F	F	25.68	417.68	181	453.14943979518	29.691583257657	0.54091015845283	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	64.63	45.05	54.84	65.095334666667	0.0021	0.2921	2.81	3.1021	F	F	32.63	424.63	181	452.99221972858	29.487680144628	0.77625161699487	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-24 11:54:16	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	61.84	44.85	53.345	62.906098666667	0.0019	0.2919	2.8	3.0919	F	F	29.84	425.84	181	452.184192412	28.445143423376	0.69001107869761	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	61.86	45.44	53.65	62.186685333333	0.0017	0.1417	2.82	2.9617	F	F	29.86	422.86	181	451.91768105381	28.103262628263	0.69067762173993	85	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	64.34	44.1	54.22	62.319499	0.0029	0.1729	2.83	3.0029	F	F	32.34	424.34	181	451.96691940365	28.166351981809	0.76797086832821	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-23 23:58:53	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	62.12	44.91	53.515	62.484656	0.009	0.129	2.85	2.979	F	F	30.12	428.12	181	452.02812531412	28.244821912578	0.69928504358216	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	62.14	46.86	54.5	65.996773333333	0.0063	0.1263	2.86	2.9863	F	F	30.14	428.14	181	453.32362888725	29.917896782316	0.6999426581785	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	65.72	47.4	56.56	66.227685333333	0.0007	0.2007	2.91	3.1107	F	F	33.72	431.72	181	453.40840044914	30.028188872436	0.80583347384057	85	4	1	3	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	54.93	48.08	51.505	63.954317333333	0.0002	0.0202	2.94	2.9602	F	F	22.93	424.93	181	452.57164115179	28.943910354289	0.43755645423075	85	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	49.89	48.06	48.975	63.822570666667	0.0002	0.0202	2.93	2.9502	F	F	17.89	418.89	181	452.52300083563	28.881181199124	0.26320320236218	85	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-23 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	274	-12	51.01	50.5	50.755	63.37518025	0	0.04	2.89	2.93	F	F	19.01	420.01	181	452.35770463283	28.668251068582	0.29887375064094	85	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L