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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 28, 2020

[ Saturday, June 27, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, June 29, 2020 ]

DAY 272 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/29/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.055
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 367

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 64 in
SWE DAY: 179
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 28.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -14

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-29 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020272-1440.8799432.0399636.4599563.9565650.269999999999980.269999999999983.143.41FF8.87994366.87994179451.46377390624 28.874072200980.0547060704059393 1122124DRYL
2020-06-29 00:00:03FORECAST2020272-1338.2638.2638.2663.9657786666670.00220.00223.143.1422FF6.26364.26180452.0225896009428.9139769187470.032201937447468931121122DRYL
2020-06-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020272-1352.9337.6945.3163.9185293333330.08460.08463.143.2246FF20.93378.93180452.0050813199628.8915000491660.32241089711506932121122.5DRYL
2020-06-28 08:00:03FORECAST2020272-1348.5736.0242.29563.8879706666670.05160.05163.143.1916FF16.57374.57180451.9937566608228.8769638670630.19132614706687931121122DRYL
2020-06-28 04:00:03FORECAST2020272-1350.5438.2644.463.788425750.1060.1063.143.246FF18.54376.54180451.9568604654528.8296166360030.24609846670307931122124DRYL
2020-06-27 23:54:33FORECAST2020272-1451.5637.8644.7166.5373386666670.26650.35653.143.4965FF19.56382.56179452.4205482140130.1028592362750.27745245539579932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2020272-1452.0836.5344.30567.5742386666670.17960.26963.143.4096FF20.08383.08179452.8031971112830.5978313106280.29415466107232932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020272-1452.8836.3444.6167.5595880.22420.31423.143.4542FF20.88383.88179452.7977975679930.5908326510010.32071787893862932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020272-1451.6837.3944.53566.6174626666670.28560.37563.143.5156FF19.68382.68179452.4501524462730.1410811391170.28126542238736932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 08:00:01FORECAST2020272-1452.3838.8745.62566.2001373333330.29510.42513.143.5651TF20.38382.38179452.2958929411629.9420502280070.30399696080733932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020272-1453.337.3945.34566.4973376666670.32160.48163.143.6216TF21.3378.3179452.4057663812730.0837790094020.33505186902843932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2020272-1452.2838.3745.32567.571580.26710.41713.143.5571TF20.28369.28179452.8022172673330.5965612482570.30069990422953932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2020272-1452.1438.4645.369.6617253333330.2930.4733.143.613TF20.14389.14179453.5704957312731.5965032929360.296111321457932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020272-1452.1138.2745.1969.6311120.28550.45553.143.5955TF20.11389.11179453.5592725405931.5818365049120.29513224533117932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2020272-1452.9338.8245.87567.3974866666670.26720.42723.143.5672TF20.93388.93179452.7380412652530.5134060996680.32241089711506932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020272-1453.6638.4746.06566.7838533333330.35020.50023.143.6402TF21.66391.66179452.5116112607530.2204690780680.34753322790536932123127.5DRYL
2020-06-26 04:00:05FORECAST2020272-1453.1638.8345.99566.5562810833330.34960.50963.143.6496TF21.16387.16179452.427547605930.1118950283020.33024582421195932123127.5DRYL
2020-06-25 23:54:09FORECAST2020272-1451.5835.9843.7870.159568637050.20460.38463.143.5246FF19.58395.58179453.7528882194831.8351069052940.27808619363717932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020272-1452.3838.4945.43572.0369973333330.24930.37933.143.5193FF20.38395.38179454.4386417016432.7363952204240.30399696080733932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020272-1452.5738.5145.5471.8820173333330.25070.35073.143.4907FF20.57397.57179454.3821571358932.6619060951990.31030528046067932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020272-1453.8236.0144.91569.5303120.22260.30263.143.4426FF21.82400.82179453.5223119641131.5335478498260.35313497603303932132126DRYL
2020-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2020272-1447.2536.1941.7269.2316680.22050.28053.153.4305FF15.25390.25179453.4127518887731.390521105730.15918349650865931122124DRYL
2020-06-25 03:54:27FORECAST2020272-1453.8936.5445.21568.6256333333330.20710.26713.153.4171FF21.89401.89179453.1901673430431.1004622543560.35559586546437932132126DRYL
2020-06-24 23:58:52FORECAST2020272-1451.2235.7543.48568.2008733333330.29510.36513.163.5251FF19.22400.22179453.0339570420630.8973115199240.26678809195485932132126DRYL
2020-06-24 19:54:41FORECAST2020272-1451.2435.5743.40570.2366253333330.2780.3183.143.458FF19.24400.24179453.7810985092131.872052999340.26740963417734932132126DRYL
2020-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2020272-1449.2936.6542.9770.2712840.25790.30793.143.4479FF17.29399.29179453.7937851719631.8886719552530.21042120740684931132125DRYL
2020-06-24 11:54:16FORECAST2020272-1450.4137.7544.0868.2112253333330.26480.30483.143.4448FF18.41402.41179453.037766111330.9022611487280.24224329157878931132125DRYL
2020-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2020272-1453.0537.1945.1267.720920.14290.17293.173.3429FF21.05398.05179452.8572458431530.6679093171640.32648913269187932122125DRYL
2020-06-24 04:00:03FORECAST2020272-1452.7837.3145.04567.5986590.14160.18163.173.3516FF20.78398.78179452.8121968453930.6094972855920.31734302612573932122125DRYL
2020-06-23 23:58:53FORECAST2020272-1454.4937.6546.0767.6580360.10220.17223.163.3322FF22.49406.49179452.8340769867530.6378642827960.37692681842134932132126DRYL
2020-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2020272-1454.5137.6746.0970.8173893333330.10220.18223.163.3422FF22.51405.51179453.9935374191132.1506370942270.37764478096301932132126DRYL
2020-06-23 16:00:02FORECAST2020272-1456.2238.0347.12570.7299226666670.05720.15723.193.3472FF24.22408.22179453.9615628401932.1086662333260.44034435238512932132126DRYL
2020-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2020272-1462.138.250.1568.4374213333330.01620.18623.153.3362FF30.1404.1179453.1209710417831.0104308101550.65744463308295933132127DRYL
2020-06-23 08:00:02FORECAST2020272-1462.0838.1650.1267.8462560.01620.18623.143.3262FF30.08403.08179452.903413353730.7278009256690.65674994289553933132127DRYL
2020-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2020272-1461.6438.6250.1367.1546695833330.03660.17663.133.3066FF29.64402.64179452.6484842299830.3974593958610.64133645397031933132127DRYL
2020-06-22 23:54:48FORECAST2020272-1454.5339.1546.8467.7921186666670.23940.30943.23.5094FF22.53407.53179452.8834736722930.7019301893640.37836316635259932132126DRYL
2020-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020272-1454.5539.1646.85569.7252613333330.23940.30943.153.4594FF22.55410.55179453.5937859551531.6269452648990.37908197227463932132126DRYL
2020-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2020272-1453.5539.1546.3569.674640.27190.29193.133.4219FF21.55411.55179453.5752301309131.6026908722890.34370115026122932132126DRYL
2020-06-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020272-1460.9742.0851.52566.6410226666670.0090.0193.123.139FF28.97410.97179452.4588562537930.1523208953430.61742516146451933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-22 08:00:03FORECAST2020272-1461.0942.2151.6566.4009813333330.0090.0193.143.159FF29.09406.09179452.3701530245330.0378220867390.62174385392445933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-22 04:00:03FORECAST2020272-1457.7142.0249.86566.0415411666670.01470.04473.153.1947FF25.71414.71179452.2372268023829.8664434309680.49628664471541932131123DRYL
2020-06-21 23:54:24FORECAST2020272-1454.4941.6248.05568.0028613333330.01970.03973.163.1997FF22.49414.49179452.9610782705530.8026493950290.37692681842134932131123DRYL
2020-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2020272-1454.5141.6448.07569.383560.01220.03223.153.1822FF22.51415.51179453.4684851379931.4632578466810.37764478096301932131123DRYL
2020-06-21 16:02:50FORECAST2020272-1451.6641.2646.4669.7023760.04330.07333.153.2233FF19.66414.66179453.5853973719931.6159799157320.28062817659575932131123DRYL
2020-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020272-1450.0542.5446.29568.6185546666670.01430.13433.123.2543FF18.05413.05179453.1875654638731.0970757350360.23174010737489931132125DRYL
2020-06-21 08:00:01FORECAST2020272-1443.4642.5543.00568.8175413333330.01360.13363.133.2636FF11.46400.46179453.2606884294231.1922861607670.087484407439355931132125DRYL
2020-06-21 04:00:04FORECAST2020272-1444.8643.8444.3568.784040.01080.13083.133.2608FF12.86409.86179453.2483800568831.1762547037680.11049625056165931132125DRYL