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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 27, 2020

[ Friday, June 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 28, 2020 ]

DAY 271 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/28/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.211
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 379

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 178
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -15

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020271-1547.9199234.1900641.0549965.09337375003.153.15FF15.91992378.91992178451.33008901942 29.3785981691620.2107937403051593 1121122DRYL
2020-06-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020271-1453.3738.2445.80568.0639426666670.08780.08783.153.2378FF21.37384.37179452.9835633052430.8318472817510.39069760344807932121122.5DRYL
2020-06-27 08:00:01FORECAST2020271-1452.139.4145.75567.6902960.13160.13163.153.2816FF20.1383.1179452.8459632595230.6532772954420.34454159236794932122125DRYL
2020-06-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020271-1447.438.8343.11567.9621856666670.15560.15563.153.3056FF15.4378.4179452.946102959330.7832071463130.1965860745842931122124DRYL
2020-06-27 00:00:03FORECAST2020271-1552.2638.845.5369.0463226666670.13610.14613.153.2961FF20.26370.26178452.7943594834131.2637854465380.35024689874247932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2020271-1552.6138.8545.7371.1519386666670.13420.18423.153.3342FF20.61389.61178453.5683512483232.2722675091620.36284409538204932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020271-1552.7438.6245.6871.1000053333330.1210.1713.153.321FF20.74389.74178453.5493111085532.2473584387470.36756197284536932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 12:00:03FORECAST2020271-1551.639.1945.39568.9261853333330.1140.1643.153.314FF19.6388.6178452.7500739109631.2063355040670.32694402714315932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020271-1553.7538.7846.26568.298120.12090.15093.153.3009FF21.75390.75178452.5183334767330.9061514419940.40484782587936932122125DRYL
2020-06-26 04:00:05FORECAST2020271-1554.5939.1946.8968.0588490833330.12350.16353.153.3135FF22.59386.59178452.4299511866430.7918617685920.4365464925158932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 23:54:09FORECAST2020271-1553.963946.4871.4437893333330.12750.17753.153.3275FF21.96396.96178453.6753047523632.4122828984640.41272268889538932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020271-1553.9939.1346.5673.5038680.09660.12663.153.2766FF21.99395.99178454.4280038617733.4022160113590.41385062119959932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020271-1554.6839.9347.30573.3420.07570.09573.153.2457FF22.68397.68178454.3690039801833.3243314899140.43997088342904932122125DRYL
2020-06-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020271-1556.5140.0548.2870.8887786666670.06050.08053.153.2305FF24.51399.51178453.4718439135132.146065174750.51021659270775933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-25 08:00:02FORECAST2020271-1556.6540.1248.38570.4100080.04480.07483.153.2248FF24.65395.65178453.296101246831.9165821151560.51560527001801933121123DRYL
2020-06-25 03:54:27FORECAST2020271-1556.9840.0848.5370.0371813333330.03580.06583.153.2158FF24.98400.98178453.1590994265831.737986019390.52829412481715933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-24 23:58:52FORECAST2020271-1556.940.0648.4869.5244080.07070.09073.153.2407FF24.9401.9178452.9704596507531.4925030487060.52522018341912933132127DRYL
2020-06-24 19:54:41FORECAST2020271-1557.4540.1848.81571.5591760.04420.04423.153.1942FF25.45402.45178453.7175682400932.4676553199840.54631354315393933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-24 16:00:02FORECAST2020271-1557.1739.9848.57571.4953253333330.05140.05143.153.2014FF25.17403.17178453.6941827370532.4370131966260.53558764971283933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-24 11:54:16FORECAST2020271-1559.7139.7449.72569.538860.04150.04153.153.1915FF27.71404.71178452.9757796382731.4994193236560.63100554973042933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-24 08:00:03FORECAST2020271-1553.7139.846.75569.1938040.03360.03363.183.2136FF21.71397.71178452.8487062518331.3343246220430.40335210606837932121122.5DRYL
2020-06-24 04:00:03FORECAST2020271-1560.0539.7849.91569.0396723333330.02930.03933.183.2193FF28.05399.05178452.7919083604831.2606049883920.64331705363445933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-23 23:58:53FORECAST2020271-1558.140.9849.5469.2506946666670.05790.06793.173.2379FF26.1405.1178452.869664982131.3615388934710.57107008917101933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2020271-1558.1240.9949.55572.4114146666670.06090.08093.173.2509FF26.12404.12178454.0293403961332.8769068382580.5718279242703933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-23 16:00:02FORECAST2020271-1558.8240.7749.79572.4239880.0790.1093.193.299FF26.82404.82178454.0339350145232.8829482610840.59816603536496933132127DRYL
2020-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2020271-1554.3640.9447.6570.6184573333330.15190.17193.163.3319FF22.36395.36178453.372643151232.0164766564740.42781743522031932122125DRYL
2020-06-23 08:00:02FORECAST2020271-1554.3540.9647.65570.0249413333330.15190.17193.153.3219FF22.35394.35178453.1545994199331.7321242393110.42743867907713932122125DRYL
2020-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2020271-1554.3440.6147.47569.3398055833330.13420.14423.143.2842FF22.34394.34178452.9024876840831.4041704442220.42705998979179932122125DRYL
2020-06-22 23:54:48FORECAST2020271-1557.741.6349.66569.4338680.05660.06663.213.2766FF25.7405.7178452.9371261397331.4491766286860.55586200962487933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020271-1557.7241.6549.68571.367940.05660.06663.163.2266FF25.72408.72178453.6475161342732.3758887126190.55662456304199933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2020271-1559.4842.651.0471.1757866666670.02270.02273.143.1627FF27.48411.48178453.5770937172832.2837064593080.62259941997921933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020271-1556.9843.9550.46568.8436520.01030.01033.133.1403FF24.98402.98178452.7196422649431.1668735056520.52829412481715933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-22 08:00:03FORECAST2020271-1557.243.7850.4968.614380.01030.01033.153.1603FF25.2398.2178452.6350717333831.0572748132420.53673822995892933121123DRYL
2020-06-22 04:00:03FORECAST2020271-1561.7343.0552.3968.0781478333330.02740.02743.163.1874FF29.73409.73178452.4370817827430.8010785388870.70177790856481934131124DRYL
2020-06-21 23:54:24FORECAST2020271-1558.7542.9950.8770.0290813333330.01270.02273.173.1927FF26.75412.75178453.1561214966631.7341068889880.59555010860351933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2020271-1558.7743.0150.8971.0624280.01270.03273.153.1827FF26.77413.77178453.5355326935632.2293361374780.59629795765178933131123.5DRYL
2020-06-21 16:02:50FORECAST2020271-1561.9644.1753.06570.8710946666670.01510.03513.153.1851FF29.96415.96178453.4653564363332.1375862040530.70943164460611934131124DRYL
2020-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020271-1562.3942.9852.68569.4234120.07270.12273.133.2527FF30.39416.39178452.9332761298131.444173437270.72348911709984934132128DRYL
2020-06-21 08:00:01FORECAST2020271-1562.424352.7169.2970773333330.07270.12273.143.2627FF30.42410.42178452.8867502856231.3837281577850.72445730489845934132128DRYL
2020-06-21 04:00:04FORECAST2020271-1562.444.1953.29569.0548040.07280.12283.143.2628FF30.4418.4178452.7974854005831.267841606030.72381203140102934132128DRYL
2020-06-20 23:58:54FORECAST2020271-1552.5439.2445.8972.7256640.18590.18593.053.2359FF20.54409.54178454.1441311749533.0279334914010.36031224010031932132126DRYL
2020-06-20 20:00:04FORECAST2020271-1552.5642.5847.5774.0339840.14690.14693.053.1969FF20.56409.56178454.6210581331233.6574081438910.36103500843585932132126DRYL
2020-06-20 15:58:54FORECAST2020271-1547.3643.6845.5274.1730560.06330.06333.033.0933FF15.36406.36178454.6716614610333.7243866071620.19551753387328931131122.5DRYL
2020-06-20 11:54:44FORECAST2020271-1545.6142.5844.09573.5465760.23190.23193.053.2819FF13.61398.61178454.4435666187533.4227683100370.15226245074876931122124DRYL
2020-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2020271-1545.542.8344.16573.5884506666670.21670.21673.183.3967FF13.5392.5178454.4588240707733.4429207551630.14977340130637931122124DRYL
2020-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2020271-1548.9147.148.00572.1971550.00910.00913.133.1391FF16.91409.91178453.9510218607232.7739722876870.23945129733715931131122.5DRYL