Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 24, 2020

[ Tuesday, June 23, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 25, 2020 ]

DAY 268 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/24/2020 12:00:03 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.06°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.95°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.770 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 31 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 317 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.14 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.21 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 79 in SWE DAY: 175 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.41 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 36.07 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -17 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-24 11:54:16	FORECAST	2020	268	-17	63.06	50.84	56.95	79.213438666667	0.0744	0.0744	5.14	5.2144	T	F	31.06	317.06	176	455.41488219484	36.074978838628	0.77035294905522	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-17	61.85	50.94	56.395	78.752434666667	0.1011	0.1011	5.14	5.2411	T	F	29.85	315.85	176	455.24794150281	35.851883770334	0.73543652636412	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-24 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-17	56.74	50.84	53.79	78.728355	0.1015	0.1015	5.14	5.2415	T	F	24.74	310.74	176	455.23921630038	35.840234630818	0.56436046935357	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-23 23:58:53	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	62.09	50.91	56.5	78.879845333333	0.077	0.087	5.14	5.227	T	F	30.09	319.09	175	454.75116619215	35.87070165439	0.74257018300403	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	62.25	50.64	56.445	81.930904	0.0776	0.0876	5.14	5.2276	T	F	30.25	319.25	175	455.85623762615	37.348713642749	0.74726989962697	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	61.87	49.61	55.74	81.918057333333	0.0956	0.1056	5.14	5.2456	T	F	29.87	318.87	175	455.8516025868	37.342477716198	0.73603481122718	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	62.83	49.47	56.15	79.411754666667	0.0714	0.0814	5.14	5.2214	T	F	30.83	319.83	175	454.94443679359	36.127936001617	0.76392096401596	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	62.67	49.18	55.925	78.735582666667	0.0641	0.0741	5.14	5.2141	T	F	30.67	318.67	175	454.69870295823	35.800967315193	0.75938873950358	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-23 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	61.14	49.79	55.465	78.176289583333	0.0484	0.0584	5.14	5.1984	T	F	29.14	313.14	175	454.4951259941	35.530742583928	0.71376091402553	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-22 23:54:48	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	61.18	50.14	55.66	78.788865333333	0.105	0.125	5.14	5.265	T	F	29.18	322.18	175	454.71808222014	35.826721744674	0.71500414226835	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	62.59	50.26	56.425	80.741797333333	0.0635	0.0835	5.14	5.2235	T	F	30.59	323.59	175	455.42656991405	36.771959808216	0.75710501570854	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	62.9	49.65	56.275	80.718236	0.0441	0.0641	5.14	5.2041	T	F	30.9	323.9	175	455.41804322441	36.760541091646	0.76588894720756	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	60.93	48.51	54.72	78.485649333333	0.0433	0.0533	5.14	5.1933	T	F	28.93	321.93	175	454.60776552147	35.680185668929	0.70719212136315	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	61.83	48.82	55.325	78.258892	0.0511	0.0711	5.14	5.2111	T	F	29.83	316.83	175	454.52521063441	35.570639370315	0.73483755328813	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-22 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	59.4	48.05	53.725	77.829861166667	0.07	0.08	5.14	5.22	T	F	27.4	321.4	175	454.36888447096	35.363467196828	0.65736474168482	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-21 23:54:24	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	59.59	47.74	53.665	78.746228	0.0573	0.0673	5.16	5.2273	T	F	27.59	329.59	175	454.70257494675	35.806112638944	0.66372715105993	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	60.27	48.43	54.35	79.778481333333	0.0444	0.0544	5.16	5.2144	T	F	28.27	331.27	175	455.07753586165	36.305394699958	0.68610588862685	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-21 16:02:50	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	59.73	48.01	53.87	79.766892	0.0464	0.0464	5.16	5.2064	T	F	27.73	330.73	175	455.07333154822	36.299785289687	0.6683855611246	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	59.25	48.38	53.815	78.538313333333	0.0212	0.0312	5.16	5.1912	T	F	27.25	328.25	175	454.62693194881	35.705632431168	0.65230996745451	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-21 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	59.25	48.41	53.83	78.418593333333	0.0221	0.0321	5.17	5.2021	T	F	27.25	322.25	175	454.58335758858	35.64778745484	0.65230996745451	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	64.01	48.1	56.055	78.2575	0.0129	0.0129	5.19	5.2029	T	F	32.01	333.01	175	454.52470370614	35.569967000283	0.79585606723528	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 23:58:54	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	64.98	47.57	56.275	80.748817333333	0.003	0.003	5.11	5.113	T	F	32.98	334.98	175	455.42911030664	36.775362036434	0.82007571586865	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	65.02	47.6	56.31	81.878924	0.003	0.003	5.11	5.113	T	F	33.02	335.02	175	455.83748246375	37.323482583001	0.82103419920711	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 15:58:54	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	65.5	47.77	56.635	81.716509333333	0.0034	0.0034	5.09	5.0934	T	F	33.5	335.5	175	455.77886486119	37.244657864365	0.83228498155917	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 11:54:44	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	65.06	47.8	56.43	80.586385333333	0.0061	0.0061	5.1	5.1061	T	F	33.06	333.06	175	455.37031792713	36.696647909838	0.82198947066444	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	65.56	50.04	57.8	80.363454666667	0.0044	0.0044	5.24	5.2444	T	F	33.56	327.56	175	455.28958851092	36.588644206503	0.83365867520084	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	66.52	50.42	58.47	79.132387	0.0023	0.0023	5.19	5.1923	T	F	34.52	337.52	175	454.84296040252	35.992809166798	0.85464868137215	93	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	65.91	48.83	57.37	79.461837333333	0.0018	0.0018	5.2	5.2018	T	F	33.91	321.91	175	454.96262101034	36.152165783471	0.84152695928863	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	65.95	48.85	57.4	81.767588	0.0018	0.0018	5.47	5.4718	T	F	33.95	334.95	175	455.79730243466	37.269446036989	0.84241042914981	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	66.32	49.23	57.775	81.696521333333	0.0046	0.0046	5.37	5.3746	T	F	34.32	336.32	175	455.77164925621	37.234958266589	0.85042925754185	93	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	66.93	46.77	56.85	79.881369333333	0.0014	0.0014	5.42	5.4214	T	F	34.93	330.93	175	455.11485556789	36.355197866705	0.86304672380149	93	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	66.96	46.8	56.88	79.235701333333	0.0014	0.0014	5.29	5.2914	T	F	34.96	329.96	175	454.88049627765	36.042775145414	0.86364796115307	93	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	67.96	47.96	57.96	79.241293060606	0.0014	0.0014	5.23	5.2314	T	F	35.96	331.96	175	454.88252756741	36.045479675119	0.88266419682992	93	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-18 23:58:55	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	68.63	48.82	58.725	78.800264	0.0014	0.0014	5.17	5.1714	T	F	36.63	346.63	175	454.72222765083	35.832231585554	0.89430806338765	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	69.98	49.98	59.98	81.011168	0.0011	0.0011	5.4	5.4011	T	F	37.98	346.98	175	455.52401710712	36.9025326779	0.91519362562185	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	69.71	49.95	59.83	80.714710666667	0.0011	0.0011	5.35	5.3511	T	F	37.71	349.71	175	455.41676738586	36.758832612299	0.91128457792167	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 11:54:50	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	73.76	53.01	63.385	78.715058666667	0.0025	0.0025	5.25	5.2525	T	F	41.76	345.76	175	454.69123754255	35.791047438381	0.95729752533092	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	74.15	53.56	63.855	77.88992	0.0025	0.0025	5.23	5.2325	T	F	42.15	349.15	175	454.39077839178	35.392461377673	0.96045225658469	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	73.75	53.68	63.715	77.453451	0.0025	0.0025	5.25	5.2525	T	F	41.75	352.75	175	454.23159135905	35.18180430398	0.95721404291891	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	72.48	54.24	63.36	77.409837333333	0.0012	0.0012	5.63	5.6312	T	F	40.48	346.48	175	454.21567507602	35.160761521885	0.94549720987665	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	72.49	54.24	63.365	79.040745333333	0.0012	0.0012	5.79	5.7912	T	F	40.49	359.49	175	454.80965716341	35.948494286994	0.94559846572718	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	72.34	53.85	63.095	79.521210666667	0.0009	0.0009	5.72	5.7209	T	F	40.34	366.34	175	454.98417552337	36.180892471793	0.94406397586777	93	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	64.72	52.59	58.655	79.48852	0.0008	0.0008	5.28	5.2808	T	F	32.72	358.72	175	454.97230811618	36.165075413139	0.81376743405239	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	55.49	52.58	54.035	80.147581333333	0.0008	0.0008	5.28	5.2808	T	F	23.49	338.49	175	455.21137117525	36.484090395127	0.51903304192249	93	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-06-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	268	-18	53.92	53.03	53.475	80.418767083333	0	0	5.33	5.33	T	F	21.92	346.92	175	455.30962294485	36.615438518402	0.46182268035381	93	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L