Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 20, 2020

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DAY 264 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/21/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.03°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.75°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.411 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 266 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.38 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.07 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 90 in SWE DAY: 171 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.72 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 41.25 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -22 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-21 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	264	-22	54.03002	43.75004	48.89003	90.31478	0.38000000000005	0.38000000000005	5.07	5.4500000000001	T	F	22.03002	266.03002	171	456.71936767513	41.248509213319	0.41129238666028	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-20 11:54:44	FORECAST	2020	264	-21	56.1	45.09	50.595	92.692810666667	0.2722	0.2722	5.07	5.3422	T	F	24.1	268.1	172	458.10180017622	42.462743429793	0.49529000822393	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-21	52.75	45.74	49.245	92.370058666667	0.4018	0.4018	5.07	5.4718	T	F	20.75	264.75	172	457.98714800987	42.304299730251	0.36107961482972	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-20 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-21	56.65	45.42	51.035	91.394065666667	0.3576	0.3576	5.07	5.4276	T	F	24.65	268.65	172	457.63987066464	41.825568391209	0.51780003324678	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	52.9	44.96	48.93	91.518133333333	0.3628	0.3628	5.07	5.4328	T	F	20.9	253.9	171	457.15022993933	41.837535696952	0.36685982823915	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	53.27	45.83	49.55	93.694761333333	0.6131	0.6231	5.07	5.6931	T	F	21.27	269.27	171	457.9262369548	42.905289479751	0.3812448165523	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	52.45	46.22	49.335	93.701102666667	0.5123	0.5223	5.07	5.5923	T	F	20.45	268.45	171	457.92849149217	42.9084045953	0.34961497371937	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	52.07	46.6	49.335	91.498309333333	0.5738	0.5838	5.07	5.6538	T	F	20.07	268.07	171	457.14314259336	41.827824670619	0.33528872947912	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	51.82	46.74	49.28	90.95372	0.4317	0.4417	5.07	5.5117	T	F	19.82	266.82	171	456.94830497401	41.561148185081	0.32599090597423	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	52.06	46.9	49.48	91.149770393939	0.3834	0.3934	5.07	5.4634	T	F	20.06	264.06	171	457.01847693462	41.657129238379	0.33491482571255	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-18 23:58:54	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	55.77	47.03	51.4	91.133337333333	0.331	0.351	5.07	5.421	T	F	23.77	273.77	171	457.0125964208	41.649083115199	0.48178660374612	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	55.97	46.26	51.115	93.185708	0.5656	0.5856	5.07	5.6556	T	F	23.97	273.97	171	457.7451344566	42.655304437894	0.48996898184715	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-18 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	57.58	46.69	52.135	93.091025333333	0.4998	0.5398	5.07	5.6098	T	F	25.58	275.58	171	457.71142400269	42.60882576719	0.55569635771529	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-18 11:54:50	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	52.35	47.81	50.08	91.409642666667	0.3252	0.3552	5.07	5.4252	T	F	20.35	270.35	171	457.11143870238	41.78439327063	0.34582308019512	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	52.52	48.03	50.275	90.869153333333	0.3179	0.3479	5.07	5.4179	T	F	20.52	271.52	171	456.91802539199	41.519754110109	0.35227827751484	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	53.48	48.38	50.93	90.520752333333	0.3307	0.3607	5.07	5.4307	T	F	21.48	273.48	171	456.79320979029	41.349265010975	0.38948430617129	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	56.75	48.53	52.64	90.394154666667	0.4604	0.5004	5.07	5.5704	T	F	24.75	269.75	171	456.74782846672	41.287333850085	0.52188877575419	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	56.8	48.64	52.72	91.456474666667	0.5857	0.6257	5.08	5.7057	T	F	24.8	282.8	171	457.1281849675	41.807332267899	0.52393231036939	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	57.91	48.93	53.42	91.220205333333	0.4848	0.5148	5.08	5.5948	T	F	25.91	289.91	171	457.04367905327	41.691618249542	0.56903989602312	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	57.37	47.64	52.505	90.189793333333	0.4334	0.4534	5.08	5.5334	T	F	25.37	287.37	171	456.6745404905	41.187382427434	0.54717103870298	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	54.62	47.69	51.155	90.21166	0.4183	0.4383	5.09	5.5283	T	F	22.62	275.62	171	456.682384123	41.198075964494	0.43499166304189	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	57.63	47.95	52.79	90.02692575	0.4091	0.4391	5.09	5.5291	T	F	25.63	287.63	171	456.61610573938	41.107744247653	0.55772255389411	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-17 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	51.78	47.72	49.75	89.959537333333	0.3299	0.3899	4.66	5.0499	T	F	19.78	278.78	171	456.59192058884	41.07479792631	0.3245130471782	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-16 19:54:40	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	51.8	47.76	49.78	90.97632	0.3282	0.3882	4.77	5.1582	T	F	19.8	293.8	171	456.95639593289	41.572211302437	0.32525163327222	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	51.75	48.41	50.08	90.845776	0.1871	0.2171	4.77	4.9871	T	F	19.75	293.75	171	456.90965385561	41.508312066404	0.32340646081624	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	63.04	50.5	56.77	89.852646666667	0.0446	0.0546	4.77	4.8246	T	F	31.04	299.04	171	456.55354991258	41.022544804708	0.75815666632565	92	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	63.1	50.54	56.82	89.924792754363	0.0446	0.0646	4.8	4.8646	T	F	31.1	294.1	171	456.57944942665	41.057812365592	0.76007495105783	92	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	63.88	50.37	57.125	89.694340833333	0.0225	0.0225	4.79	4.8125	T	F	31.88	299.88	171	456.49670352685	40.94517091543	0.78424370762287	92	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-16 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	68.32	51.33	59.825	88.131374666667	0.0069	0.0069	3.49	3.4969	F	F	36.32	308.32	171	455.93422600291	40.182110095219	0.89299382245878	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 19:54:44	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	68.33	51.34	59.835	89.230183064755	0.0069	0.0069	3.87	3.8769	T	F	36.33	317.33	171	456.32989628263	40.718400183219	0.89318316020039	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 16:02:39	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	67.45	50.16	58.805	89.629825333333	0.0048	0.0048	3.91	3.9148	T	F	35.45	308.45	171	456.47352995907	40.913642759522	0.87558737190925	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	73.26	50.44	61.85	89.014442666667	0.0034	0.0134	3.96	3.9734	T	F	41.26	309.26	171	456.25229735126	40.613043964109	0.9600215062819	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 07:54:45	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	73.27	50.49	61.88	88.394358666667	0.0034	0.0134	4.33	4.3434	T	F	41.27	317.27	171	456.0290245445	40.310393157997	0.96011017857615	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	72.43	49.88	61.155	88.863675916667	0.0075	0.0175	4.42	4.4375	T	F	40.43	310.43	171	456.19804332372	40.539435075736	0.95208698509437	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	60.3	48.4	54.35	89.076616	0.1066	0.1066	4.39	4.4966	T	F	28.3	294.3	171	456.27466462807	40.643403091603	0.6624604014944	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	60.33	48.44	54.385	90.004182666667	0.1066	0.1066	4.55	4.6566	T	F	28.33	307.33	171	456.60794389593	41.09662478946	0.66358455507688	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	63.21	47.29	55.25	90.332784	0.1132	0.1232	4.76	4.8832	T	F	31.21	301.21	171	456.72582374042	41.257315183165	0.76357018389201	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	70.69	47.25	58.97	89.100269333333	0.0019	0.0119	4.77	4.7819	T	F	38.69	315.69	171	456.28317314708	40.654953619673	0.93140269599108	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	70.71	47.27	58.99	89.155881914628	0.0019	0.0119	4.76	4.7719	T	F	38.71	311.71	171	456.30317595463	40.682112072681	0.93167430745238	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-14 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	69.88	47.89	58.885	89.020574996795	0.0071	0.0271	4.57	4.5971	T	F	37.88	309.88	171	456.25450365548	40.616038260288	0.91969078455276	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	73.79	49.79	61.79	88.356754237856	0.0036	0.0136	4.39	4.4036	T	F	41.79	320.79	171	456.01547305575	40.292047081447	0.96450593416782	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	73.82	49.8	61.81	90.207543012414	0.0036	0.0136	4.77	4.7836	T	F	41.82	330.82	171	456.68090738171	41.196062595584	0.96474694622405	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-13 15:58:58	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	74.6	50.84	62.72	90.149527957532	0.0023	0.0123	4.77	4.7823	T	F	42.6	337.6	171	456.66009605152	41.167692096086	0.970557868782	92	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	66.06	50.39	58.225	91.045434069	0	0.01	5.05	5.06	T	F	34.06	321.06	171	456.98113637361	41.606045922481	0.84385499332414	92	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	53.93	50.38	52.155	91.616193453626	0	0.01	5.16	5.17	T	F	21.93	308.93	171	457.18528249987	41.885575285658	0.40730403922797	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-06-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	264	-22	50.13	49.1	49.615	92.27434432304	0	0.01	4.95	4.96	T	F	18.13	301.13	171	457.420319234	42.208160037353	0.26616699937357	92	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L