Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 19, 2020

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DAY 263 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/20/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.12°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.26°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.843 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 265 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.08 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.08 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 94 in SWE DAY: 170 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.34 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 42.78 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -23 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-20 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	263	-23	65.40008	49.11998	57.26003	93.549681666667	0	0	5.08	5.08	T	F	33.40008	265.40008	170	457.34153818169	42.784155309841	0.84290899005742	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-22	53.5	53.5	53.5	93.882466666667	0.0017	0.0017	5.08	5.0817	T	F	21.5	253.5	171	457.99295655603	42.997508477439	0.42764065300015	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-06-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-22	68.96	53.02	60.99	93.85652	0.0053	0.0053	5.08	5.0853	T	F	36.96	268.96	171	457.98373574378	42.98475965351	0.91349127639452	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-22	67.55	52.73	60.14	93.339537333333	0.0053	0.0053	5.08	5.0853	T	F	35.55	267.55	171	457.79988598048	42.73082954867	0.8890474318057	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-22	64.5	49.38	56.94	93.553409060606	0.0071	0.0071	5.08	5.0871	T	F	32.5	264.5	171	457.87597248379	42.835858152798	0.82030218251876	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-18 23:58:54	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.17	47.64	58.405	93.645270666667	0.0112	0.0212	5.08	5.1012	T	F	37.17	271.17	170	457.3756610798	42.831067578164	0.91675851830039	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.15	47.11	58.13	95.684958666667	0.0108	0.0208	5.08	5.1008	T	F	37.15	271.15	170	458.10180799373	43.833452563006	0.91645139432293	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.8	47.04	57.92	95.67408	0.0262	0.0362	5.08	5.1162	T	F	36.8	270.8	170	458.09794506282	43.828099443776	0.9109385154191	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 11:54:50	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.15	48	58.575	93.860622666667	0.0232	0.0332	5.08	5.1132	T	F	37.15	271.15	170	457.4525060425	42.936777057576	0.91645139432293	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.11	49.02	59.065	93.334401333333	0.0216	0.0316	5.08	5.1116	T	F	37.11	272.11	170	457.26465810395	42.678523115024	0.91583460176754	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.68	49.5	59.59	93.033451	0.0201	0.0301	5.08	5.1101	T	F	37.68	272.68	170	457.15711340218	42.530903909003	0.92430720403247	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	67.77	49.63	58.7	92.988252	0.0283	0.0383	5.08	5.1183	T	F	35.77	265.77	170	457.14095442279	42.508738269387	0.89315580270679	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.38	49.79	59.085	94.075773333333	0.0295	0.0495	5.08	5.1295	T	F	36.38	279.38	170	457.52923719924	43.042416812128	0.90397233199731	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.55	50.16	59.355	93.893077333333	0.0323	0.0423	5.08	5.1223	T	F	36.55	284.55	170	457.46408333388	42.95271055369	0.90683860909514	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	67.44	49.32	58.38	92.753769333333	0.0187	0.0287	5.08	5.1087	T	F	35.44	283.44	170	457.05709533946	42.39376839328	0.88695146554549	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	63.49	49.2	56.345	92.736166666667	0.0192	0.0392	5.08	5.1192	T	F	31.49	274.49	170	457.05079800349	42.385138978785	0.79263049108335	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	67.21	49.05	58.13	92.57351775	0.028	0.048	5.08	5.128	T	F	35.21	283.21	170	456.99259719802	42.30541230833	0.88247833018389	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-17 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	62.52	49.43	55.975	92.36744	0.0574	0.0674	4.66	4.7274	T	F	30.52	279.52	170	456.91882167473	42.204421845911	0.76382497376893	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-16 19:54:40	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.79	49.1	57.945	93.378701333333	0.0575	0.0675	4.77	4.8375	T	F	34.79	294.79	170	457.28048178362	42.700257534035	0.87399070463524	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	67.18	49.29	58.235	93.320208	0.0297	0.0397	4.77	4.8097	T	F	35.18	295.18	170	457.25958795847	42.671559858279	0.88188579433987	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	62.74	48.64	55.69	92.779008	0.0134	0.0234	4.77	4.7934	T	F	30.74	288.74	170	457.06612395535	42.406141570983	0.77054466094295	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	62.88	48.96	55.92	92.855910087696	0.0166	0.0166	4.81	4.8266	T	F	30.88	283.88	170	457.0936305333	42.443845058458	0.77476451565453	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.39	49.59	58.99	92.736322166667	0.002	0.002	4.8	4.802	T	F	36.39	289.39	170	457.05085363469	42.385215209217	0.9041427054052	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-16 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.92	46.55	58.235	91.55236	0.0004	0.0004	3.5	3.5004	F	F	37.92	292.92	170	456.62664554788	41.805247038792	0.92767443270358	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 19:54:44	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.93	46.22	58.075	92.653628398088	0.0004	0.0004	3.88	3.8804	T	F	37.93	301.93	170	457.02126626685	42.344678574713	0.92781221027357	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 16:02:39	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.84	46.95	57.895	92.934097333333	0.0005	0.0105	3.91	3.9205	T	F	36.84	293.84	170	457.12159128274	42.482182457439	0.91158188399341	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.74	46.11	57.425	92.756868	0	0.02	3.96	3.98	T	F	36.74	288.74	170	457.05820385514	42.395287483308	0.90996696102673	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-06-15 07:54:45	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.75	46.1	57.425	92.138916	0	0.02	4.33	4.35	T	F	36.75	296.75	170	456.83696525991	42.092462767778	0.91012942951859	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	67.01	44.33	55.67	92.497806583333	0	0.03	4.41	4.44	T	F	35.01	291.01	170	456.96549720216	42.268306175462	0.87848830345387	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	64.87	43.27	54.07	91.984828	0.0024	0.0524	4.35	4.4024	T	F	32.87	286.87	170	456.78174470733	42.016990220444	0.82983126196894	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	64.88	43.28	54.08	92.914198666667	0.0024	0.0424	4.52	4.5624	T	F	32.88	299.88	170	457.11447579425	42.472425217356	0.83008423922935	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	61.78	42.54	52.16	93.274561333333	0.0016	0.0316	4.75	4.7816	T	F	29.78	290.78	170	457.24328080748	42.649166439932	0.74044825741948	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	64.94	42.57	53.755	92.444010666667	0.0073	0.0373	4.75	4.7873	T	F	32.94	297.94	170	456.94623836646	42.241942933642	0.83159704850902	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	64.96	42.58	53.77	92.500716581295	0.0073	0.0373	4.74	4.7773	T	F	32.96	293.96	170	456.96653890086	42.269732302004	0.83209939232049	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	64.88	44	54.44	92.405152330128	0.0147	0.0447	4.56	4.6047	T	F	32.88	292.88	170	456.93232551896	42.222901144139	0.83008423922935	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.88	44.03	55.455	92.053860904523	0.0081	0.0181	4.39	4.4081	T	F	34.88	299.88	170	456.80648671782	42.050800788606	0.87584442418527	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.9	44.04	55.47	93.335296345748	0.0081	0.0181	4.77	4.7881	T	F	34.9	309.9	170	457.26497781434	42.678962212834	0.87625376563137	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-13 15:58:58	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	68.86	45.07	56.965	92.551963957532	0.0036	0.0336	4.76	4.7936	T	F	36.86	315.86	170	456.98488278101	42.294848400285	0.91190227108111	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.16	44.78	55.47	92.539310069	0.0034	0.0334	5.04	5.0734	T	F	34.16	308.16	170	456.98035357279	42.288646634714	0.86047607138015	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.19	44.79	55.49	92.470250786959	0.0034	0.0334	5.15	5.1834	T	F	34.19	308.19	170	456.95563260829	42.254801945802	0.86114110532703	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.59	43.12	54.855	92.660946989707	0.0004	0.0304	4.94	4.9704	T	F	34.59	303.59	170	457.02388506867	42.348265987378	0.86980269194177	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-13 00:02:38	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.92	41.99	54.455	93.873082969406	0.0018	0.0818	4.33	4.4118	T	F	34.92	284.92	170	457.45695101863	42.942894317903	0.87666216414748	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	66.95	41.99	54.47	95.319075490246	0.0018	0.0818	4.38	4.4618	T	F	34.95	295.95	170	457.97182709602	43.653451159371	0.87727299512053	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-12 16:02:37	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	67.37	41.8	54.585	95.904141867915	0.0014	0.0214	4.19	4.2114	T	F	35.37	302.37	170	458.17961552775	43.941322848561	0.88560309003654	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	69.4	46.24	57.82	94.70323295826	0	0.01	4.34	4.35	T	F	37.4	303.4	170	457.75277456576	43.350667646991	0.92022986606786	88	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-06-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	50.56	46.24	48.4	94.959077276276	0	0.01	4.38	4.39	T	F	18.56	292.56	170	457.84381889336	43.47642657876	0.31701360649638	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-06-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	263	-23	47.39	45.91	46.65	95.078059543841	0.0002	0.0302	4.79	4.8202	T	F	15.39	280.39	170	457.88613957118	43.534925642449	0.21395646136449	88	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	WET	L