Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 18, 2020

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DAY 262 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/19/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.23°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.69°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.747 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 246 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.42 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.66 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.08 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 96 in SWE DAY: 169 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 44.17 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -24 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-19 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	262	-24	61.23002	38.15006	49.69004	96.465447727273	0	0.42	4.66	5.08	T	F	29.23002	246.23002	169	457.84748564861	44.166462693899	0.74748898225895	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-18 11:54:50	FORECAST	2020	262	-23	63.06	48.52	55.79	97.217429333333	0.0064	0.4264	4.66	5.0864	T	F	31.06	248.06	170	458.64491133618	44.588279256918	0.8004572418245	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	262	-23	63.8	48.01	55.905	96.724281333333	0.0054	0.4254	4.66	5.0854	T	F	31.8	248.8	170	458.47037168927	44.345217214271	0.81982581180473	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-23	63.93	43.05	53.49	96.449243	0.0063	0.4263	4.66	5.0863	T	F	31.93	248.93	170	458.37293248668	44.20972235003	0.82310262234575	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	61.48	41.85	51.665	96.327292	0.0111	0.4311	4.66	5.0911	T	F	29.48	244.48	169	457.79833041973	44.098473451453	0.75513456012316	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	61.39	40.42	50.905	97.434602666667	0.0079	0.4379	4.66	5.0979	T	F	29.39	257.39	169	458.19182242439	44.643738163037	0.752396346098	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.57	40.48	53.025	97.265737333333	0.0029	0.4329	4.66	5.0929	T	F	33.57	261.57	169	458.1318862268	44.56053570976	0.86118096937166	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.57	42.12	53.845	96.034316	0	0.43	4.66	5.09	T	F	33.57	261.57	169	457.69403369393	43.954333463077	0.86118096937166	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.29	42.09	53.69	95.920609333333	0.0008	0.4408	4.66	5.1008	T	F	33.29	257.29	169	457.65353426898	43.898405870634	0.85510763973754	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.24	42.08	53.66	95.839632416667	0.0018	0.4418	4.66	5.1018	T	F	33.24	262.24	169	457.62468521725	43.858581616014	0.85400462342377	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-17 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.75	41.93	53.84	95.515201333333	0.0014	0.0114	4.66	4.6714	T	F	33.75	262.75	169	457.50904300828	43.699068354757	0.86499266647485	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-16 19:54:40	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.72	41.79	53.755	96.613546666667	0.0024	0.1224	4.66	4.7824	T	F	33.72	273.72	169	457.90015947804	44.239358426405	0.86436240412644	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.61	41.55	53.58	96.581129333333	0.002	0.122	4.66	4.782	T	F	33.61	273.61	169	457.88863141283	44.223401130746	0.86203426483292	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.26	41.34	53.3	95.87828	0.0016	0.1216	4.66	4.7816	T	F	33.26	272.26	169	457.63845464827	43.877587893534	0.85444650323288	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.3	41.32	53.31	95.981094087696	0.0011	0.1511	4.66	4.8111	T	F	33.3	267.3	169	457.67507885747	43.928154805413	0.85532756981006	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	65.36	41.18	53.27	96.0554635	0.0013	0.1413	4.66	4.8013	T	F	33.36	267.36	169	457.70156460607	43.964735932911	0.85664243995645	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-06-16 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	64.57	41.21	52.89	94.858982666667	0.0021	0.1621	3.34	3.5021	F	F	32.57	268.57	169	457.27484487913	43.376626584292	0.83868199205713	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-15 19:54:44	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	64.04	41.17	52.605	95.950301731422	0.0026	0.1926	3.69	3.8826	T	F	32.04	278.04	169	457.66411107501	43.91300954929	0.82584576437053	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-15 16:02:39	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	63.87	41.02	52.445	96.173698666667	0.0013	0.2313	3.69	3.9213	T	F	31.87	270.87	169	457.74366230328	44.022901044932	0.82159494438089	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	58.21	38.36	48.285	95.911134666667	0.0054	0.2854	3.69	3.9754	T	F	26.21	266.21	169	457.65015910554	43.893746040193	0.64622449492737	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-15 07:54:45	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	58.24	41.09	49.665	95.295041333333	0.0063	0.3863	3.96	4.3463	T	F	26.24	274.24	169	457.43051353158	43.59085969412	0.6473004184353	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	62.6	40.39	51.495	95.470579916667	0.0088	0.3388	4.1	4.4388	T	F	30.6	269.6	169	457.49313042034	43.677134469121	0.78781070777032	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	61.19	36.97	49.08	94.690226666667	0.004	0.424	3.98	4.404	T	F	29.19	268.19	169	457.21455435834	43.29374978749	0.74625342136741	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	61.25	37.13	49.19	95.622057333333	0.0036	0.4436	4.12	4.5636	T	F	29.25	281.25	169	457.54714194264	43.751599039542	0.7481046497295	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	60.29	38.99	49.64	95.762058666667	0.0061	0.5461	4.23	4.7761	T	F	28.29	275.29	169	457.59704302128	43.820434879497	0.71765271724317	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	60.7	38.49	49.595	95.143341333333	0.0047	0.5247	4.26	4.7847	T	F	28.7	278.7	169	457.37637768091	43.516316819498	0.73087220147322	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	60.73	38.51	49.62	95.201905914628	0.0047	0.5047	4.27	4.7747	T	F	28.73	274.73	169	457.39727958229	43.5450927764	0.73182716361502	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	61.09	38.72	49.905	95.167458996795	0.0057	0.4157	4.17	4.5857	T	F	29.09	274.09	169	457.38498573488	43.528166875674	0.74315226144602	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	62.01	38.76	50.385	94.974646237856	0.003	0.493	3.91	4.403	T	F	30.01	279.01	169	457.31615243846	43.4334397967	0.77092443929246	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-06-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	62.04	38.78	50.41	96.257995012414	0.003	0.473	4.31	4.783	T	F	30.04	289.04	169	457.77366834526	44.064375484393	0.77180082431022	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-13 15:58:58	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	63.24	39.47	51.355	95.653750624198	0.0064	0.4864	4.3	4.7864	T	F	31.24	293.24	169	457.55844002753	43.76718091839	0.80528001100894	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	62.15	38.17	50.16	95.545867402333	0.0057	0.6457	4.42	5.0657	T	F	30.15	288.15	169	457.51997788889	43.714143141291	0.77499808550939	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-06-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	62.18	38.19	50.185	95.478994786959	0.0057	0.5757	4.6	5.1757	T	F	30.18	288.18	169	457.49613141248	43.681270746186	0.77586564710009	92	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-06-13 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	59.87	37.44	48.655	95.50711232304	0.0109	0.4809	4.49	4.9709	T	F	27.87	282.87	169	457.50615849395	43.695092067765	0.70379539280087	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-13 00:02:38	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	53.55	38.48	46.015	96.634624302739	0.07	0.36	4.05	4.41	T	F	21.55	263.55	169	457.90765447625	44.249734155661	0.4702839984285	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	53.58	38.49	46.035	97.639730156913	0.07	0.36	4.1	4.46	T	F	21.58	274.58	169	458.26459475378	44.744831372226	0.47143588373671	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-12 16:02:37	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	56.58	37.63	47.105	97.550701867915	0.0186	0.2386	3.97	4.2086	T	F	24.58	280.58	169	458.23301517026	44.70095224891	0.58622574529364	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	63.63	40.77	52.2	96.037646291593	0.0023	0.2623	4.09	4.3523	T	F	31.63	279.63	169	457.69521968286	43.955971617255	0.81548380568726	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	63.66	40.78	52.22	95.645307942942	0.0023	0.2623	4.13	4.3923	T	F	31.66	287.66	169	457.55543045325	43.763030046667	0.81625472405025	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	61.44	41.61	51.525	95.398515543841	0.0152	0.2352	4.58	4.8152	T	F	29.44	279.44	169	457.46742750222	43.641713493372	0.75391958895739	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-11 23:54:57	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	55.74	39.37	47.555	97.303425333333	0.2639	0.5339	4.51	5.0439	T	F	23.74	273.74	169	458.14526524132	44.579103608229	0.55439945412143	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-11 19:59:01	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	55.75	39.36	47.555	98.745992363994	0.2541	0.5241	4.53	5.0541	T	F	23.75	273.75	169	458.65640638291	45.290482002384	0.5547808336089	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	55.89	38.95	47.42	98.873113220019	0.1396	0.3996	4.35	4.7496	T	F	23.89	280.89	169	458.70135906784	45.353231409291	0.5601146656776	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-11 11:55:12	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	49.27	38.86	44.065	97.574457358666	0.0006	0.2306	3.69	3.9206	T	F	17.27	280.27	169	458.24144227475	44.712660069211	0.3129194718211	92	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-11 07:55:22	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	41.22	38.88	40.05	97.552469333333	0.0004	0.2304	3.72	3.9504	T	F	9.22	271.22	169	458.23364218453	44.701823326708	0.10295317059573	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	262	-24	39.48	38.28	38.88	97.399422875605	0	0.34	3.71	4.05	T	F	7.48	261.48	169	458.1793380092	44.626403095623	0.075906685909988	92	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L