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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 16, 2020

[ Monday, June 15, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 17, 2020 ]

DAY 260 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.089
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 237

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 100 in
SWE DAY: 167
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020260-2638.2699431.4499234.85993100.080180416670.419999999999961.954.496.44TT6.26994237.26994167458.0687926044 45.8436074070930.08915927924830691 11251210WETL
2020-06-17 00:02:43FORECAST2020260-2537.2537.2537.2599.97130.00021.53024.496.0202TT5.25236.25168458.5606130373645.8429006141420.073994685659139111251210WETL
2020-06-16 12:00:03FORECAST2020260-2548.0137.2842.645100.261289333330.11041.64044.496.1304TT16.01247.01168458.6632088653345.9861646906020.34988113370579121251212.5WETL
2020-06-16 08:00:03FORECAST2020260-2542.8333.0237.925100.367711421030.15241.68244.496.1724TT10.83241.83168458.7008411686646.0387536550.185093129951449111251210WETL
2020-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2020260-2542.6434.6538.645100.44935150.14371.67374.496.1637TT10.64241.64168458.7297033210646.0791012123880.180133820877999111251210WETL
2020-06-16 00:02:43FORECAST2020260-2647.8734.4641.16599.079140.15830.36834.494.8583TF15.87244.87167457.7127994215745.3497905336820.34478599564276912122125WETL
2020-06-15 19:54:43FORECAST2020260-2647.8133.4440.625100.135253731420.1880.7484.495.238TF15.81253.81167458.0883516953145.8707933284190.34261088334069912123127.5WETL
2020-06-15 16:02:39FORECAST2020260-2647.3733.1940.28100.1385080.21970.77974.495.2697TF15.37253.37167458.0895073515645.872399796640.326823067618912123127.5WETL
2020-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2020260-2647.4634.5941.02599.5255306666670.27150.83154.495.3215TF15.46253.46167457.8716581201245.5699197516320.33002843851739912123127.5WETL
2020-06-15 07:54:45FORECAST2020260-2648.513541.75599.2250280.36551.19554.495.6855TF16.51255.51167457.7647369391245.4217188401970.368293912625119121241210WETL
2020-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2020260-2646.9134.9640.93599.302385250.31291.28294.495.7729TF14.91248.91167457.7922690497645.4598642656510.310642926356649121241210WETL
2020-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020260-2645.6634.4740.06598.2646613333330.36951.21954.495.7095TF13.66249.66167457.4224833357744.9484654112420.268550543191479121241210WETL
2020-06-14 20:00:04FORECAST2020260-2646.6934.3540.5299.1879093333330.40431.39434.495.8843TF14.69262.69167457.7515241656145.4034166761340.303029613448439121241210WETL
2020-06-14 16:00:03FORECAST2020260-2646.3935.4340.9199.1820053333330.51731.61734.496.1073TT14.39262.39167457.7494224608945.4005056598460.29278459555769121251212.5WETL
2020-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2020260-2646.5434.440.4798.4937520.49431.62434.496.1143TT14.54262.54167457.5042020611845.0613054167720.297887041973749121251212.5WETL
2020-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020260-2646.2734.5940.4398.5344952479620.46671.60674.496.0967TT14.27258.27167457.5187305686645.0813771830710.288732060188899121251212.5WETL
2020-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2020260-2646.7834.0240.498.7012216634610.38771.42774.495.9177TF14.78256.78167457.5781673577445.1635241247370.306134078758989121241210WETL
2020-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020260-2646.2235.1140.66598.5565702378560.47841.60844.145.7484TF14.22259.22167457.5266015923545.0922526455240.287051326202749121251212.5WETL
2020-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2020260-2646.0534.0840.06599.8323750124140.45931.66934.466.1293TT14.05269.05167457.9807515403145.7213061362390.281371721794989121251212.5WETL
2020-06-13 15:58:58FORECAST2020260-2646.1135.2840.69599.5595746241980.46191.66194.466.1219TT14.11270.11167457.8837660786845.586712978120.283370092153339121251212.5WETL
2020-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020260-2643.5135.2839.39599.1635980690.61991.93994.466.3999TT11.51266.51167457.7428696443345.3914299443610.203525614187389111251210WETL
2020-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2020260-2643.5134.9939.2599.1012627869590.54831.81834.696.5083TT11.51266.51167457.7206765824545.3606970530220.203525614187389111251210WETL
2020-06-13 04:00:02FORECAST2020260-2644.1433.8438.9998.935860323040.4531.8234.486.303TT12.14264.14167457.6617717557745.2791611256240.221541059325239111251210WETL
2020-06-13 00:02:38FORECAST2020260-264533.1139.05599.9051669694060.28041.39044.35.6904TF13252167458.0066190385245.7572277481360.24754269788289911124128WETL
2020-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020260-2645.0332.7438.885100.914700823580.27761.32764.415.7376TF13.03263.03167458.3648763619446.2557543661020.24847820544619911124128WETL
2020-06-12 16:02:36FORECAST2020260-2646.5634.6240.59100.675612534580.22261.17264.385.5526TF14.56264.56167458.2801131433946.1376311031280.298570417357339121241210WETL
2020-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2020260-2646.2633.4239.84100.166783624930.2471.3274.375.697TF14.26254.26167458.0995481927745.8863583225020.288395543323659121241210WETL
2020-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020260-2646.333.4339.86599.7784906096090.2471.3574.385.737TF14.3262.3167457.9615999882745.6947172039910.289742717398149121241210WETL
2020-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2020260-2645.6831.8838.7899.5637875438410.20881.59884.556.1488TT13.68255.68167457.8852643586145.5887911800560.269200837180839121251212.5WETL
2020-06-11 23:54:57FORECAST2020260-2645.634.440100.5262440.23961.45964.656.1096TT13.6258.6167458.2271318561146.0638524643880.266604404688299121241210WETL
2020-06-11 19:59:01FORECAST2020260-2645.6434.4240.03101.678148363990.23961.43964.696.1296TT13.64258.64167458.6351946596946.6331773675570.267901038745139121241210WETL
2020-06-11 16:00:04FORECAST2020260-264634.240.1101.321797220020.17481.22484.665.8848TF14267167458.5090845765246.4569644909980.279711620029739121241210WETL
2020-06-11 11:55:12FORECAST2020260-2646.0333.8739.9599.5044093586660.15090.66094.545.2009TF14.03275.03167457.86414566145.5595013805080.2807071113555912123127.5WETL
2020-06-11 07:55:22FORECAST2020260-2646.0833.8939.98599.1776546666670.15090.62094.615.2309TF14.08274.08167457.7478736912845.3983605413540.2823700575161912123127.5WETL
2020-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020260-2647.6835.8641.7798.9240762089390.24750.67754.645.3175TF15.68263.68167457.6575741314145.2733527409740.33791607367916912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 23:55:01FORECAST2020260-2649.2133.9741.59100.002883022670.26670.87674.75.5767TF17.21279.21167458.041336095845.8054541531350.39457926717397912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020260-2649.2333.9941.61100.877953529250.26670.89674.635.5267TF17.23281.23167458.3518518069346.2375968066270.39533801931458912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 15:59:02FORECAST2020260-2647.935.741.8100.527501868690.31630.80634.715.5163TF15.9281.9167458.2275781083346.064473714570.34587548309932912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 11:59:00FORECAST2020260-2647.4837.2842.3897.9826613333330.65670.85674.615.4667TF15.48290.48167457.3218260550444.8096096026930.33074245031206912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2020260-2647.5237.342.4197.6629706666670.65670.85674.65.4567TF15.52287.52167457.207628209644.652255182410.33217231952018912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 04:02:33FORECAST2020260-2648.2635.8442.0597.8919010833330.62260.87264.525.3926TF16.26289.26167457.2894146873344.7649301490280.35904661020615912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020260-2653.0738.6945.8896.6067560.0840.4643.043.504TF21.07301.07167456.8296740310544.1328328526770.54495480220071913122126DRYL
2020-06-09 19:59:02FORECAST2020260-2653.0938.7145.997.9286333333330.06750.44753.64.0475TF21.09308.09167457.3025330310144.7830120795990.54573587794929913122126WETL
2020-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2020260-2653.1838.9546.06598.1021453333330.05480.58483.524.1048TF21.18305.18167457.364483561744.8684370366750.5492484875389913123129WETL
2020-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2020260-2644.9336.840.86598.8888182577440.03160.52163.824.3416TF12.93290.93167457.6450141310845.2559746289710.24536717405723911123126WETL
2020-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020260-2638.5136.8337.6799.0648352190890.02950.51954.134.6495TF6.51280.51167457.7077057471745.3427384483510.093042290366912911123126WETL
2020-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2020260-2640.1339.0939.6199.1319615833330.01260.38265.045.4226TF8.13277.13167457.7316066310345.3758320440250.12254010017091911122124WETL