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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 15, 2020

[ Sunday, June 14, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 16, 2020 ]

DAY 259 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/16/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.077
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.89 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 101 in
SWE DAY: 166
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-16 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020259-2737.1899432.3999634.79495101.184180833331.331.894.136.02TT5.18994254.18994166457.92947388482 46.3352186944750.07728253589012391 11251210WETL
2020-06-16 00:02:42FORECAST2020259-2634.9234.9234.9299.9840373333330.00740.56744.134.6974TF2.92251.92167458.0346411739245.7961526630930.051487821397448911123126WETL
2020-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2020259-2644.2935.0439.665100.442618666670.35850.91854.135.0485TF12.29261.29167458.1974610220646.0225528514740.21850996482173911123126WETL
2020-06-15 07:54:44FORECAST2020259-2644.9935.940.445100.238110666670.62631.18634.135.3163TF12.99261.99167458.1248736423545.9215717833150.23774753044611911124128WETL
2020-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2020259-2640.1733.7236.945100.241558583330.7661.3264.135.456TF8.17257.17167458.1260977467845.9232740658380.12463324937323911124128WETL
2020-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020259-2741.9835.4838.7399.1270280.84991.20994.135.3399TF9.98258.98166457.1961902464945.3204995520570.16172575552927911124128WETL
2020-06-14 20:00:04FORECAST2020259-2744.2335.6139.92100.070338666670.95711.34714.135.4771TF12.23271.23166457.5329142960945.7854736847570.21690373480103911124128WETL
2020-06-14 16:00:03FORECAST2020259-2743.5635.6839.62100.107841.07251.46254.135.5925TF11.56270.56166457.5462840996145.8039702012380.19943565188006911124128WETL
2020-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2020259-2743.6835.3939.53599.3700041.09751.48754.135.6175TF11.68270.68166457.2830000841545.4402135474940.20250059023434911124128WETL
2020-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020259-2743.7835.5839.6899.4186739146291.10041.50044.135.6304TF11.78266.78166457.3003823058645.4641975895020.20507604524219111251210WETL
2020-06-14 04:00:03FORECAST2020259-2738.4735.5937.0399.5799883301280.96581.39584.135.5258TF6.47265.47166457.3579795978245.5437022710420.095614911734763911124128WETL
2020-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020259-2743.6935.5239.60599.4352275711890.98591.13594.135.2659TF11.69267.69166457.3062938735545.4723554010540.20275726401117911124128WETL
2020-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2020259-2743.535.5839.54100.632874167821.08451.54454.135.6745TF11.5277.5166457.7333332097146.063020923310.197913690358349111251210WETL
2020-06-13 15:58:58FORECAST2020259-2744.0935.6339.86100.451843957531.04021.53024.135.6602TF12.09279.09166457.6688674106645.9736816533560.213182471739549111251210WETL
2020-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020259-2743.4835.1839.3399.8989194023331.13311.65314.135.7831TF11.48278.48166457.4717844676245.7009369253720.197407929758629111251210WETL
2020-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2020259-2744.2235.0739.64599.7889147869591.07551.82554.135.9555TT12.22278.22166457.4325416957645.6466969240610.216636693690719111251210WETL
2020-06-13 04:00:02FORECAST2020259-2743.7535.1439.44599.45930751.14541.71544.135.8454TF11.75274.75166457.3148927461345.4842225419670.204301376115519111251210WETL
2020-06-13 00:02:38FORECAST2020259-2744.2835.7740.025100.615935737460.93511.52513.885.4051TF12.28262.28166457.7273026035446.0546608640410.218241786040269111251210WETL
2020-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020259-2743.9635.4939.725101.608503405140.90321.52323.945.4632TF11.96272.96166458.0802499587546.5448486377610.209760525384319111251210WETL
2020-06-12 16:02:36FORECAST2020259-2744.2635.9640.11101.521633867920.84821.38823.945.3282TF12.26273.26166458.0493955193546.5019230253350.21770599675101911124128WETL
2020-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2020259-2739.0935.4737.28100.937583624930.96881.50883.945.4488TF7.09263.09166457.8417749161346.2134424425810.105562856774849111251210WETL
2020-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020259-2739.0835.4737.275100.550766609610.98731.487345.4873TF7.08271.08166457.7040979546746.0224979297010.10539670095361911124128WETL
2020-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2020259-2738.3334.9336.63100.106627333331.18961.81964.125.9396TT6.33265.33166457.5458517851745.8033720725710.0934669986054019111251210WETL
2020-06-11 23:54:57FORECAST2020259-2741.4734.6938.08101.305845333331.08291.62294.255.8729TF9.47268.47166457.9727219946.3953137408040.150614579332319111251210WETL
2020-06-11 19:59:01FORECAST2020259-2741.4934.3137.9102.459991030661.09011.61014.285.8901TF9.49268.49166458.3823223420546.965848635780.151040522879749111251210WETL
2020-06-11 16:00:04FORECAST2020259-2744.2235.2339.725102.096861220020.9391.4194.295.709TF12.22276.22166458.2535788871546.7862520472180.21663669369071911124128WETL
2020-06-11 11:55:12FORECAST2020259-2751.3636.3543.855100.319708025330.37410.81414.245.0541TF19.36284.36166457.6217944002345.908484800260.44658202998403912123127.5WETL
2020-06-11 07:55:22FORECAST2020259-2751.4236.3643.8999.9950306666670.37410.75414.335.0841TF19.42283.42166457.5060619861845.7483326984940.44873985041742912123127.5WETL
2020-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020259-2748.2736.3142.2999.8876308756050.37240.75244.325.0724TF16.27271.27166457.4677579316345.6953705417650.33896782581297912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 23:55:01FORECAST2020259-2746.2435.9641.1100.924289689340.48580.93584.375.3058TF14.24285.24166457.8370455467246.2068786152670.27429173203274912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020259-2746.2835.9741.125101.801710862590.48580.92584.335.2558TF14.28287.28166458.1488492396846.6403366823260.27550529647618912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 15:59:02FORECAST2020259-2746.8236.3841.6101.462629868690.42570.80574.395.1957TF14.82288.82166458.0284345164846.4727695206810.29214166935354912123127.5WETL
2020-06-10 11:59:00FORECAST2020259-2757.0936.3446.71599.2350746666670.14260.36264.454.8126TF25.09298.09166457.234799495545.3737294681340.65052437017469913122126WETL
2020-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2020259-2757.1436.3546.74598.9175706666670.14260.36264.444.8026TF25.14295.14166457.1213128603245.21732976810.65220604471957913122126WETL
2020-06-10 04:02:33FORECAST2020259-2751.4136.543.95599.1414170833330.15530.38534.384.7653TF19.41296.41166457.2013326335845.3275880096810.44838010660383912122125WETL
2020-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020259-2752.7437.4645.198.2471933333330.09980.62982.793.4198FF20.74302.74166456.8813965627144.88731489850.49648281647361912123127.5DRYL
2020-06-09 19:59:02FORECAST2020259-2752.7737.6145.1999.3150346666670.09980.63983.343.9798TF20.77309.77166457.263365471745.4131269936190.49757107653113912123127.5DRYL
2020-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2020259-2751.837.1344.46599.0529080.1160.7163.334.046TF19.8306.8166457.169698178245.2839880540330.46243866527961912123127.5WETL
2020-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2020259-2749.4637.143.2899.3393809244110.27250.75253.564.3125TF17.46301.46166457.2720621012245.4251235631630.3793944065281912123127.5WETL
2020-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020259-2749.4937.1443.31599.3160285524220.27250.75253.874.6225TF17.49297.49166457.263720504245.4136167215810.38043302098625912123127.5WETL
2020-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2020259-2750.8435.5443.1999.2975469166670.18440.58444.835.4144TF18.84291.84166457.2571184104745.4045101683430.42795383444145912123127.5WETL
2020-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020259-2746.1436.7541.44599.2808133333330.54032.08034.626.7003TT14.14292.14166457.251140496645.3962651260970.271269402461289121251212.5WETL
2020-06-08 19:55:32FORECAST2020259-2746.1836.7541.46599.7898693333330.46482.12484.366.4848TT14.18295.18166457.4328822654245.6471675500360.272476342528989121251212.5WETL
2020-06-08 15:55:07FORECAST2020259-2741.5638.8440.299.895724839270.50551.82554.556.3755TT9.56294.56166457.4706450017545.6993616751380.152537615203379111251210WETL
2020-06-08 11:55:08FORECAST2020259-2741.7837.7839.7899.7803951546260.19680.65684.445.0968TF9.78288.78166457.4295019658845.6424964615390.15730648749093911123126WETL
2020-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020259-2739.3237.7838.5599.8541573333330.09110.55114.444.9911TF7.32288.32166457.4558174819745.6788651718930.10943668132234911123126WETL
2020-06-08 04:00:03FORECAST2020259-2738.2236.5437.3899.86312850.0020.4324.635.062TF6.22289.22166457.4590177138545.6832886694420.09180443249467911122124WETL