Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 12, 2020

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DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.27°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.91°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.394 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 323 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.26 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 102 in SWE DAY: 163 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.51 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 46.43 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-13 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	256	-30	50.55008	35.27006	42.91007	101.70911416667	0.25999999999999	0.38999999999999	3.81	4.2	T	F	18.55008	322.55008	163	456.51332086908	46.431565470877	0.39425635540746	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-13 00:02:38	FORECAST	2020	256	-29	38.11	38.11	38.11	102.96659866667	0.0061	0.1361	3.81	3.9461	T	F	6.11	310.11	164	457.49873080521	47.107088205329	0.076877559061276	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-29	45.74	38.19	41.965	103.23909466667	0.0738	0.2038	3.81	4.0138	T	F	13.74	317.74	164	457.59587449481	47.241783806046	0.23706393753782	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-06-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-29	49.24	38.34	43.79	102.86271466667	0.1263	0.2563	3.81	4.0663	T	F	17.24	321.24	164	457.46167888562	47.055750146146	0.3482214773915	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	256	-29	48.34	38.31	43.325	102.328554	0.2466	0.3766	3.81	4.1866	T	F	16.34	320.34	164	457.27100733316	46.791880966526	0.31779973022325	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-11 23:54:57	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	47.39	38.79	43.09	103.46468666667	0.3001	0.5101	3.81	4.3201	T	F	15.39	321.39	163	457.14238228282	47.298093344945	0.28697317592899	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-11 19:59:01	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	46.73	38.69	42.71	104.50262533333	0.3291	0.5391	3.81	4.3491	T	F	14.73	320.73	163	457.51298189649	47.811307732265	0.26642591255162	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50.8	39.44	45.12	104.28920666667	0.3403	0.5503	3.81	4.3603	T	F	18.8	324.8	163	457.43685979213	47.705727207812	0.40323164294762	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-11 11:55:12	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50.23	39.97	45.1	102.98168933333	0.286	0.496	3.81	4.306	T	F	18.23	324.23	163	456.96959300723	47.059500661851	0.38284352279333	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-11 07:55:22	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50.05	39.29	44.67	102.72289733333	0.3055	0.5855	3.81	4.3955	T	F	18.05	323.05	163	456.87692453242	46.931721412712	0.3764691037792	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	44.99	38.56	41.775	102.49477733333	0.3269	0.5769	3.81	4.3869	T	F	12.99	313.99	163	456.79518858749	46.819121141213	0.21605870466803	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-10 23:55:01	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	47.96	37.71	42.835	103.45902133333	0.4069	0.6269	3.81	4.4369	T	F	15.96	325.96	163	457.14035677363	47.295293923771	0.30530062236037	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	48.67	38.49	43.58	104.277036	0.3905	0.5905	3.81	4.4005	T	F	16.67	328.67	163	457.43251751866	47.699707096864	0.32882581719342	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 15:59:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	49.27	38.67	43.97	104.150592	0.4076	0.6476	3.81	4.4576	T	F	17.27	329.27	163	457.38739664666	47.637168134089	0.34925393245535	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 11:59:00	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50	40.26	45.13	102.55968266667	0.4642	0.7142	3.81	4.5242	T	F	18	330	163	456.81844914532	46.851155180622	0.37470430847019	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50.09	40.42	45.255	102.25158133333	0.4068	0.6968	3.81	4.5068	T	F	18.09	327.09	163	456.70799870157	46.699115074817	0.37788280287442	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 04:02:33	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	49.46	39.77	44.615	102.33351308333	0.3183	0.6383	3.81	4.4483	T	F	17.46	330.46	163	456.73737863807	46.739540512507	0.35581845087246	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.15	40.61	47.88	101.66801466667	0.1809	0.5009	2.36	2.8609	F	F	23.15	334.15	163	456.49856035723	46.411302329711	0.56344497413528	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-06-09 19:59:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.25	40.54	47.895	102.759308	0.1691	0.4591	2.95	3.4091	F	F	23.25	341.25	163	456.88996617959	46.949696756758	0.56710670959511	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-09 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	54.91	41.4	48.155	102.48039866667	0.1583	0.4483	2.95	3.3983	F	F	22.91	342.91	163	456.7900350898	46.812024902963	0.55463518634432	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	47.71	37.55	42.63	102.14162933333	0.375	0.675	2.95	3.625	T	F	15.71	337.71	163	456.6685613638	46.644870923008	0.29719832198245	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	47.74	37.59	42.665	102.15830266667	0.343	0.623	3.32	3.943	T	F	15.74	333.74	163	456.67454242624	46.653096125341	0.2981653989904	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-09 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	45.64	37.77	41.705	102.10396958333	0.5486	0.8286	4.07	4.8986	T	F	13.64	333.64	163	456.65505111634	46.626293449258	0.23420009828065	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50.46	38.97	44.715	101.98511866667	0.6323	0.8423	3.85	4.6923	T	F	18.46	336.46	163	456.61240546691	46.567670356215	0.39103478810475	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 19:55:32	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	50.45	37.62	44.035	102.30021733333	0.5181	0.6881	3.74	4.4281	T	F	18.45	339.45	163	456.72543984025	46.72311175732	0.39067761016637	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 15:55:07	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	47.86	37.59	42.725	102.347176	0.7226	0.9026	3.72	4.6226	T	F	15.86	339.86	163	456.74227743362	46.74628225514	0.30204794719557	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 11:55:08	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	43.49	36.69	40.09	102.14915648796	0.57	0.72	3.79	4.51	T	F	11.49	332.49	163	456.67126153801	46.6485841584	0.17743459213905	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	43.51	36.74	40.125	102.03830933333	0.57	0.75	3.76	4.51	T	F	11.51	333.51	163	456.63149273811	46.593905507353	0.17791913684051	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-08 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	49.52	38.17	43.845	101.85485383333	0.6391	0.8191	3.88	4.6991	T	F	17.52	341.52	163	456.56564952762	46.503427497957	0.3579004770996	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	51.01	40.36	45.685	102.47349333333	0.5705	0.8505	3.27	4.1205	T	F	19.01	344.01	163	456.78756006328	46.808616990894	0.41081311758529	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-07 19:55:10	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	43.56	39.11	41.335	103.20133958431	0.6713	0.9513	3.57	4.5213	T	F	11.56	340.56	163	457.04819779207	47.167986266734	0.17913413658598	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	45.09	41.38	43.235	102.97208493886	0.455	0.715	3.48	4.195	T	F	13.09	341.09	163	456.96615494519	47.054757721202	0.21879563220584	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	49.7	39.62	44.66	102.85658417667	0.1968	0.3568	3.81	4.1668	T	F	17.7	347.7	163	456.92480284475	46.997724446207	0.36417173123263	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	49.74	39.66	44.7	103.41131571962	0.1968	0.3668	3.7	4.0668	T	F	17.74	343.74	163	457.1232995763	47.271721855278	0.36557036362792	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-07 03:59:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	53.67	38.24	45.955	103.09359035724	0.27	0.42	3.89	4.31	T	F	21.67	352.67	163	457.00964376756	47.114765003881	0.50878327188706	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-06 23:55:14	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.64	39.36	47.5	102.95437592934	0.154	0.374	4.08	4.454	T	F	23.64	353.64	163	456.95981547366	47.046012626879	0.5813296857468	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-06 19:55:37	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.68	39.41	47.545	102.79230809168	0.154	0.354	4.1	4.454	T	F	23.68	358.68	163	456.90178517812	46.965989069666	0.58278278799649	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.68	39.46	47.57	102.70328712966	0.0337	0.1837	3.98	4.1637	T	F	23.68	355.68	163	456.86990000974	46.922040521598	0.58278278799649	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	52.91	38.53	45.72	102.86401141245	0.049	0.249	4.15	4.399	T	F	20.91	356.91	163	456.92746234198	47.001391701007	0.4805839374208	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	52.95	38.57	45.76	102.88035368657	0.049	0.249	3.98	4.229	T	F	20.95	354.95	163	456.93331390264	47.009460945482	0.48206692633412	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-06 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	60.08	43.97	52.025	102.79566273165	0.0528	0.3428	3.94	4.2828	T	F	28.08	355.08	163	456.90298658855	46.967645310439	0.73183951902974	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.92	41.99	48.955	103.89757793418	0.1746	0.6246	3.78	4.4046	T	F	23.92	332.92	163	457.29706639486	47.512057594829	0.59147700842925	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	55.94	44.12	50.03	105.66493199132	0.1698	0.6198	4.12	4.7398	T	F	23.94	350.94	163	457.92682952845	48.386807299126	0.59219956168816	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	52.28	43.17	47.725	106.33051469456	0.2024	0.3824	3.83	4.2124	T	F	20.28	346.28	163	458.163265467	48.716735831249	0.45727555207217	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	54.16	46.51	50.335	104.25290389507	0.0471	0.2971	3.33	3.6271	T	F	22.16	357.16	163	457.42390722367	47.687770639099	0.52695000459834	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	47.96	46.52	47.24	104.21031576599	0.033	0.283	3.26	3.543	F	F	15.96	350.96	163	457.40871056225	47.666706161805	0.30530062236037	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	256	-30	44.06	43.42	43.74	104.00452573801	0.1439	0.5539	3.37	3.9239	T	F	12.06	347.06	163	457.33525563202	47.564936365281	0.19156901706044	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L