Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 10, 2020

[ Tuesday, June 9, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 11, 2020 ]

DAY 254 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/11/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.26°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.71°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.536 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 21 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 312 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.65 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 106 in SWE DAY: 161 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.90 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 48.33 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -32 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-11 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	254	-32	53.25998	40.15994	46.70996	105.77406666667	0.010000000000048	1.65	2.48	4.13	T	F	21.25998	312.25998	161	456.89807219229	48.327967147939	0.53616587051008	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-10 11:59:00	FORECAST	2020	254	-31	57.79	45.38	51.585	106.54575733333	0.0347	1.6747	2.48	4.1547	T	F	25.79	316.79	162	457.70792194738	48.76683718135	0.71245491140888	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-31	54.55	41.48	48.015	106.33058933333	0.0394	1.6794	2.48	4.1594	T	F	22.55	313.55	162	457.63128228989	48.660203943253	0.58883898294043	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-10 04:02:33	FORECAST	2020	254	-31	57.63	39.4	48.515	106.31040375	0.0472	1.6872	2.48	4.1672	T	F	25.63	316.63	162	457.62409033456	48.650201809194	0.70677125928771	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	58.84	41.41	50.125	105.82328266667	0.0552	0.2452	2.48	2.7252	F	F	26.84	315.84	161	456.91569754984	48.352319016654	0.74840341270114	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-09 19:59:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	58.8	40.66	49.73	106.92321333333	0.0633	0.8433	2.48	3.3233	T	F	26.8	322.8	161	457.30903315156	48.896951310925	0.74707871081608	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-09 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.47	40.99	50.23	106.82459466667	0.0672	0.8472	2.48	3.3272	T	F	27.47	323.47	161	457.27381191045	48.848089609015	0.76877579738165	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.12	41.95	50.535	105.998144	0.1525	0.9325	2.48	3.4125	T	F	27.12	323.12	161	456.97830151199	48.438851808543	0.75757290903745	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.06	42.04	50.55	105.99557466667	0.1335	1.2835	2.48	3.7635	T	F	27.06	319.06	161	456.97738183895	48.437580197689	0.75562336025323	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-06-09 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	58.33	42.05	50.19	105.69480425	0.1161	2.0161	2.48	4.4961	T	F	26.33	321.33	161	456.8696819045	48.288751596656	0.7312431084109	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	57.9	42.02	49.96	105.791832	0.0869	1.7669	2.48	4.2469	T	F	25.9	318.9	161	456.90443461221	48.33675718655	0.71633199293208	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 19:55:32	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	58.47	41.73	50.1	105.86568666667	0.0741	1.6441	2.48	4.1241	T	F	26.47	328.47	161	456.93088160995	48.373301540843	0.73601160649511	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 15:55:07	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	58.21	41.76	49.985	105.89963466667	0.0774	1.6274	2.48	4.1074	T	F	26.21	327.21	161	456.94303655976	48.390100635156	0.72712171268056	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-08 11:55:08	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	57.32	41.77	49.545	105.52673648796	0.1031	1.7231	2.48	4.2031	T	F	25.32	326.32	161	456.80946432136	48.205611966646	0.6956136762876	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	57.21	41.85	49.53	105.35750533333	0.1115	1.7015	2.48	4.1815	T	F	25.21	327.21	161	456.74880392272	48.121914545282	0.69160963564883	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-08 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	56.45	41.25	48.85	105.77789783333	0.1235	1.8335	2.48	4.3135	T	F	24.45	325.45	161	456.8994442984	48.329862739103	0.66334136515916	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	56.72	41.04	48.88	106.39599066667	0.1192	1.6392	2.06	3.6992	T	F	24.72	327.72	161	457.12063526271	48.635802842952	0.67350080193933	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-06-07 19:55:10	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	55.99	41.64	48.815	106.52162891764	0.1289	1.5489	2.46	4.0089	T	F	23.99	332.99	161	457.16555376893	48.698019472501	0.64575864313124	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	56.27	41.47	48.87	106.5344382722	0.1042	1.4342	2.46	3.8942	T	F	24.27	333.27	161	457.17013259669	48.704363271013	0.65650102149878	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	55.28	41.42	48.35	106.51608017667	0.0538	1.7138	2.46	4.1738	T	F	23.28	332.28	161	457.16357027152	48.695271504892	0.61801202367737	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	55.31	39.99	47.65	107.07923038628	0.0599	1.6199	2.45	4.0699	T	F	23.31	328.31	161	457.36473596811	48.974263933292	0.61919792778592	90	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-07 03:59:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	58.23	41.53	49.88	107.16445302391	0.069	1.719	2.55	4.269	T	F	26.23	332.23	161	457.39515371193	49.016501463326	0.72781078032385	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-06 23:55:14	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	60.78	41.02	50.9	106.87616259601	0.066	1.976	2.48	4.456	T	F	28.78	333.78	161	457.29223027956	48.873638757251	0.80804660023368	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-06 19:55:36	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	60.81	40.31	50.56	106.72207609168	0.0485	2.0185	2.44	4.4585	T	F	28.81	338.81	161	457.23718847946	48.797302020848	0.80889540508321	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	61.35	42.46	51.905	106.63185246299	0.0434	1.8934	2.44	4.3334	T	F	29.35	336.35	161	457.20494936795	48.752610706352	0.82377885396673	90	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	63.24	42.29	52.765	106.50557674578	0.0513	1.9813	2.53	4.5113	T	F	31.24	341.24	161	457.15981555442	48.690069820619	0.86992298546186	90	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-06-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	63.28	42.31	52.795	106.53011901991	0.0513	1.7913	2.55	4.3413	T	F	31.28	339.28	161	457.1685886548	48.702224161559	0.87079981120503	90	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-06-06 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	63.35	43.63	53.49	107.43112273165	0.0534	1.6534	2.65	4.3034	T	F	31.35	329.35	161	457.49029118923	49.148695621287	0.87232440869087	90	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	62.68	41.09	51.885	108.11904726751	0.0626	1.5226	2.63	4.1526	T	F	30.68	310.68	161	457.73541882839	49.489917384319	0.85721556724548	90	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-06-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	62.71	41.08	51.895	109.62493065799	0.0626	1.5926	2.9	4.4926	T	F	30.71	328.71	161	458.2705164642	50.23787358999	0.85791683251984	90	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-06-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	61.6	41.9	51.75	109.5624080279	0.0566	1.3266	2.87	4.1966	T	F	29.6	331.6	161	458.24834049692	50.20679165963	0.83041445412805	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	62.2	40.97	51.585	107.69132789507	0.039	0.939	2.74	3.679	T	F	30.2	334.2	161	457.58306027065	49.277727382837	0.84567801722037	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	62.22	40.97	51.595	107.22551043265	0.039	0.909	2.7	3.609	T	F	30.22	334.22	161	457.41694233139	49.046765122027	0.84617069029233	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.54	41.7	50.62	106.58834573801	0.1069	1.1069	2.68	3.7869	T	F	27.54	332.54	161	457.18940070943	48.731061910571	0.77098126020903	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-06-05 00:02:23	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.93	40.96	50.445	108.76842290747	0.1696	1.1996	2.77	3.9696	T	F	27.93	322.93	161	457.96641770969	49.812284998868	0.78305086201168	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-06-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.95	40.97	50.46	109.27584111183	0.1696	1.1996	2.77	3.9696	T	F	27.95	338.95	161	458.14665384828	50.06436095184	0.78365976096903	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	60.39	41.07	50.73	108.88575773491	0.2716	1.4016	2.76	4.1616	T	F	28.39	337.39	161	458.00811596584	49.870560755678	0.79680375974923	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-06-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	62.23	38.46	50.345	108.24954788093	0.0641	0.5941	2.81	3.4041	F	F	30.23	339.23	161	457.78187170117	49.554680639735	0.84641663705761	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	62.24	38.46	50.35	107.57478584118	0.0641	0.5941	2.63	3.2241	F	F	30.24	343.24	161	457.54151794848	49.219930806758	0.84666232398941	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	61.36	40.87	51.115	106.24473967611	0.0874	0.6474	2.6	3.2474	F	F	29.36	350.36	161	457.06654060575	48.560915621317	0.82404738489202	90	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	52.28	40.26	46.27	107.12327788509	0.0974	1.0674	2.75	3.8174	T	F	20.28	331.28	161	457.38045826485	48.996093929913	0.49567194143344	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	52.3	40.27	46.285	108.41460593542	0.0734	1.0434	2.7	3.7434	T	F	20.3	348.3	161	457.84060355788	49.636608615962	0.49649934064789	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-06-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	59.64	41.8	50.72	108.82060885376	0.0612	1.1712	2.57	3.7412	T	F	27.64	349.64	161	457.9849649991	49.838202737068	0.77411138475269	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-06-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	44.29	42.34	43.315	107.57996558714	0.1525	0.7925	2.51	3.3025	F	F	12.29	336.29	161	457.54336457039	49.222499415109	0.20058989620252	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	43.38	42.34	42.86	107.59154490858	0.0862	0.7262	2.55	3.2762	F	F	11.38	334.38	161	457.54749260556	49.228241598481	0.17516916166808	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	254	-32	42.56	41.73	42.145	107.9997110237	0.0017	0.3017	2.42	2.7217	F	F	10.56	343.56	161	457.69292653354	49.430703803213	0.15409446604979	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L