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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 9, 2020

[ Friday, May 8, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 10, 2020 ]

DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.872
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 208

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 157 in
SWE DAY: 129
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -64

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-10 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020222-6460.1744.3499852.25999156.98295375005.45.4TF28.17208.17129458.08739510734 71.9119123595930.8719259522771590 5121124WETL
2020-05-10 00:00:01FORECAST2020222-6352.5552.5552.55158.88766005.45.4TF20.55200.55130459.2898889195872.9754957120920.66851209643578903121123WETL
2020-05-09 11:57:02FORECAST2020222-6365.6352.1258.875159.0998960.00450.00455.45.4045TF33.63213.63130459.3645906437573.0848585975030.94927238767425905121124WETL
2020-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2020222-6361.3147.8754.59158.7948560.01040.01045.45.4104TF29.31209.31130459.2572115935672.9276827819620.89257245713658905121124WETL
2020-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2020222-6365.7944.4955.14158.565731583330.00690.00695.45.4069TF33.79213.79130459.1765013321672.8096578596090.95079155775437905121124WETL
2020-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020222-6467.2947.6257.455158.939377333330.00890.00895.45.4089TF35.29208.29129458.7804446907472.9182782118560.96333774141105905121124WETL
2020-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.0545.5756.31161.053138666670.01180.01185.45.4118TF35.05221.05129459.5253696308274.0080030760030.96152652299602905121124WETL
2020-05-08 15:56:59FORECAST2020222-6467.1245.6956.405161.020174666670.00220.00225.45.4022TF35.12221.12129459.5137832372373.9909896385990.96206215271083905121124WETL
2020-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.2246.6956.955159.439160.00140.00145.45.4014TF35.22221.22129458.9569376802473.175708619910.96281679986542905121124WETL
2020-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.246.4956.845159.262422666670.00260.01265.45.4126TF35.2217.2129458.894550355273.0846578381010.96266685677663905121124WETL
2020-05-08 04:00:03FORECAST2020222-6467.6146.9757.29159.131431083330.00250.01255.45.4125TF35.61222.61129458.8482929586773.0171855086580.96564390487974905121124WETL
2020-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2020222-6462.9447.4855.21157.599206666670.00090.01095.45.4109TF30.94211.94129458.3060701295172.2286730629280.91776955356135905121124WETL
2020-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2020222-6466.8547.657.225158.5853760.00090.01095.45.4109TF34.85230.85129458.6552972246672.7360227647640.9599622213813905121124WETL
2020-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2020222-6466.6247.5757.095158.579034666670.0010.0115.45.411TF34.62230.62129458.6530543940372.7327586127230.95809999885246905121124WETL
2020-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2020222-6466.7147.3457.025157.308909333330.00080.01085.45.4108TF34.71230.71129458.2031018582872.0794302064760.95883685410506905121124WETL
2020-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.0147.2757.14157.342857333330.00150.01155.45.4115TF35.01226.01129458.2151471119172.0968805200010.9612177002292905121124WETL
2020-05-07 04:00:03FORECAST2020222-6467.5247.5957.555157.590753250.00080.01085.45.4108TF35.52230.52129458.3030727813772.2243264564060.96500764192893905121124WETL
2020-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.9247.3157.615157.1034720.00190.01194.824.8319TF35.92221.92129458.1301874822771.9738430814760.96776329679877905121124WETL
2020-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2020222-6468.2947.7658.025157.078817333330.00160.01164.964.9716TF36.29226.29129458.1214344237471.9611731143310.97015081011963905121118WETL
2020-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2020222-6468.3148.0558.18157.0359040.00120.01124.964.9712TF36.31226.31129458.1061977483471.9391208914140.97027558266736905121118WETL
2020-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2020222-6463.0148.0855.545157.411901972380.00230.00234.964.9623TF31.01221.01129458.239641969272.1323736015160.918742613944905121124WETL
2020-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2020222-6462.4248.1455.28157.196299570580.0010.0015.035.031TF30.42220.42129458.1631388074872.0215500201770.91026565596596905121124WETL
2020-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2020222-6468.4548.2358.34156.917925873130.00080.00085.215.2108TF36.45231.45129458.0643002392871.8784999100760.97113695764332905121118WETL
2020-05-05 23:59:24FORECAST2020222-6470.446.8258.61158.64460.00190.00195.335.3319TF38.4240.4129458.6762420850972.7665089550920.98113230021951905121118WETL
2020-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2020222-6468.4745.7457.105159.757821702140.00210.00215.295.2921TF36.47238.47129459.0693527948373.3399198127120.97125830501888905121118WETL
2020-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2020222-6471.1747.2659.215160.564415017540.0020.0025.295.292TF39.17241.17129459.353490507273.7558244895540.98417538719541905121118WETL
2020-05-05 11:57:09FORECAST2020222-6470.4345.9958.21159.656475088920.00040.00045.275.2704TF38.43235.43129459.0336103542173.2876881764950.98125955286111905121118WETL
2020-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2020222-6470.4846.0358.255159.63304480740.00040.00045.165.1604TF38.48230.48129459.0253457646473.2756135881810.98147002082207905121118WETL
2020-05-05 03:59:25FORECAST2020222-6469.2245.9257.57159.36722323844005.195.19TF37.22236.22129458.9315477712873.138646424830.97551247675221905121118WETL
2020-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2020222-6468.4945.6357.06158.902692584240.00020.00025.125.1202TF36.49240.49129458.7674810291972.899388005630.97137922903727905121118WETL
2020-05-04 20:00:01FORECAST2020222-6468.5345.6757.1160.316292936630.00020.00025.195.1902TF36.53253.53129459.2661468082573.6278461275910.97161981124825905121118WETL
2020-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2020222-6469.8946.6458.265159.620522116960.0010.0015.165.161TF37.89257.89129459.0209284202573.2691602570520.97885423611651905121118WETL
2020-05-04 12:00:01FORECAST2020222-6467.6848.0757.875159.12596657876005.125.12TF35.68252.68129458.8463629296173.0143710123220.96613219563672905121124WETL
2020-05-04 08:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.5447.657.57158.89051630341005.035.03TF35.54243.54129458.7631779064272.8931181985440.96514986069878905121124WETL
2020-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2020222-6467.8448.1658158.61953682203005.075.07TF35.84260.84129458.6673787528272.7536071731470.9672269343165905121124WETL
2020-05-04 00:00:04FORECAST2020222-6467.3947.7657.575154.260695945720.00030.00034.584.5803TF35.39243.39129457.117305989770.5152337508050.96407160342902905121124WETL
2020-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2020222-6467.4447.7857.61154.739125563830.00030.00034.74.7003TF35.44256.44129457.2882827929470.7603890099670.96443401020778905121124WETL
2020-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2020222-6467.8348.3858.105154.69009121592004.654.65TF35.83255.83129457.270768900570.7352569515940.96715937610891905121124WETL
2020-05-03 12:01:29FORECAST2020222-6472.9346.9859.955155.056971961250.00030.00034.874.8703TF40.93259.93129457.401757017770.9233314129210.98959426808342905121118WETL
2020-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2020222-6472.9747.0259.995154.763387720830.00030.00034.854.8503TF40.97259.97129457.2969478465870.7728248431340.98969581239676905121118WETL
2020-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2020222-6471.4346.2158.82155.552354871070.00030.01034.894.9003TF39.43255.43129457.5784309306371.1774024694670.98510321370248905121118WETL
2020-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020222-6470.447.8159.105156.494993135460.01830.01834.334.3483TF38.4235.4129457.9140011422771.661248465390.98113230021951905121118WETL
2020-05-02 19:57:17FORECAST2020222-6470.4447.8359.135156.584017357830.00840.00844.924.9284TF38.44257.44129457.9456514112571.7069698295210.98130180811418905121118WETL
2020-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2020222-6468.4546.9157.68158.040187518250.00040.00044.754.7504TF36.45254.45129458.4623405497872.4554742705430.97113695764332905121118WETL
2020-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2020222-6460.6747.6554.16158.76295909120.00070.00074.824.8207TF28.67243.67129458.7180909237772.8274415037220.88129690784492905121124WETL
2020-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020222-6449.2447.6848.46158.975256490680.00070.00074.834.8307TF17.24234.24129458.7931225037872.9367543261970.55249886545479903121123WETL
2020-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2020222-6448.2747.6947.98160.015465188910.00070.00075.035.0307TF16.27235.27129459.1601758561573.4727291358420.51712532632927903121123WETL