Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 8, 2020

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DAY 221 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.07°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.68°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.757 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 23 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 186 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.40 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 161 in SWE DAY: 128 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.02 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 73.96 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -65 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-09 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	221	-65	55.29992	40.06994	47.68493	161.12664625	0	0.58	4.82	5.4	T	F	23.29992	186.29992	128	459.02447747095	73.961074601552	0.75670300135649	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-64	48.12	48.12	48.12	161.91187733333	0	0.58	4.82	5.4	T	F	16.12	179.12	129	459.82686292305	74.451430624169	0.50498186775404	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-08 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	221	-64	61.36	48.33	54.845	162.411496	0.0039	0.5839	4.82	5.4039	T	F	29.36	192.36	129	460.00197093906	74.70960826316	0.89846430100461	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-08 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	221	-64	56.92	43.09	50.005	162.21589866667	0.0054	0.5854	4.82	5.4054	T	F	24.92	187.92	129	459.93344380137	74.608516913094	0.80232206630641	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-64	61.84	38.97	50.405	162.13946441667	0.0057	0.5857	4.82	5.4057	T	F	29.84	192.84	129	459.90665596069	74.569018879127	0.90634960038102	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	63.41	43.25	53.33	160.48183466667	0.0069	0.5869	4.82	5.4069	T	F	31.41	187.41	128	458.79683779953	73.628558269333	0.92899334194134	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	63.54	41.36	52.45	161.56514666667	0.0021	0.5921	4.82	5.4121	T	F	31.54	201.54	128	459.17906967847	74.187333738866	0.93066173435138	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	63.98	41.75	52.865	161.52748133333	0.0019	0.5919	4.82	5.4119	T	F	31.98	201.98	128	459.16579761961	74.167894803906	0.93608585664327	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	63.74	41.77	52.755	160.26790666667	0.0019	0.5919	4.82	5.4119	T	F	31.74	201.74	128	458.72123178444	73.518291561647	0.93316951209037	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	63.83	41.69	52.76	160.29972266667	0.0011	0.5911	4.82	5.4111	T	F	31.83	196.83	128	458.73247873367	73.534689119201	0.9342749385226	88	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	63.34	41.47	52.405	160.60228525	0.0004	0.5904	4.82	5.4104	T	F	31.34	201.34	128	458.83938913488	73.690654457775	0.92808233956344	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.25	42.05	53.15	160.13462933333	0.0017	0.0117	4.82	4.8317	T	F	32.25	192.25	128	458.67410839596	73.449608332785	0.93924776970057	88	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.28	41.75	53.015	160.15113866667	0.0006	0.1506	4.82	4.9706	T	F	32.28	196.28	128	458.67994653125	73.458115720546	0.93959143227709	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.41	41.82	53.115	160.11227066667	0.0002	0.1502	4.82	4.9702	T	F	32.41	196.41	128	458.66620139198	73.438086982924	0.9410631453194	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.26	41.15	52.705	160.34208997238	0.0022	0.1422	4.82	4.9622	T	F	32.26	196.26	128	458.7474541563	73.556525568931	0.93936249280159	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.37	41.13	52.75	160.10975957058	0.0013	0.2113	4.82	5.0313	T	F	32.37	196.37	128	458.66531333035	73.436793040686	0.94061332749293	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.57	41.34	52.955	159.99095787313	0.0004	0.3904	4.82	5.2104	T	F	32.57	200.57	128	458.62329204509	73.375579797224	0.94283582398667	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 23:59:24	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.06	42	53.53	161.77333733333	0.0016	0.3816	4.95	5.3316	T	F	33.06	208.06	128	459.25240650988	74.294794479467	0.94800535189079	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.4	42.13	53.765	162.77039236881	0.0014	0.3414	4.95	5.2914	T	F	33.4	208.4	128	459.60309004032	74.809775299778	0.95136954441749	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.81	42.29	54.05	163.74601501754	0.0004	0.3404	4.95	5.2904	T	F	33.81	207.81	128	459.94537677586	75.314222572788	0.95519312772343	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 11:57:09	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	60.91	41.73	51.32	162.75290442226	0.0003	0.3203	4.95	5.2703	T	F	28.91	202.91	128	459.5969468403	74.80073796186	0.89064410826062	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	60.48	41.77	51.125	162.73515947407	0.0003	0.3403	4.82	5.1603	T	F	28.48	198.48	128	459.59071308131	74.79156798609	0.88277719263618	88	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-05 03:59:25	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	66.23	41.72	53.975	162.39351523844	0	0.32	4.87	5.19	T	F	34.23	205.23	128	459.47063946098	74.615052290923	0.95885589643479	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.86	40.29	53.075	161.88306458424	0.0013	0.2613	4.86	5.1213	T	F	33.86	209.86	128	459.29104321043	74.351441610999	0.95564243867479	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.91	40.15	53.03	163.30218626997	0.0013	0.3113	4.88	5.1913	T	F	33.91	222.91	128	459.78976938406	75.084674564982	0.95608812318119	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	67.49	41.59	54.54	162.75368745029	0.0012	0.2812	4.88	5.1612	T	F	35.49	226.49	128	459.59722190975	74.801142607723	0.96841405868874	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.43	41.35	53.39	162.21545324543	0.0024	0.2824	4.84	5.1224	T	F	33.43	223.43	128	459.40801682075	74.523079673161	0.95165785913926	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.5	41.25	53.375	161.95392697008	0.0015	0.2015	4.83	5.0315	T	F	33.5	213.5	128	459.31598925523	74.38802818003	0.95232529448965	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.55	41.43	53.49	161.72208882203	0.0024	0.2624	4.81	5.0724	T	F	33.55	230.55	128	459.23435740895	74.268339539018	0.95279751477909	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.54	39.6	52.57	157.29283727906	0	0.29	4.29	4.58	T	F	33.54	213.54	128	457.66551907707	71.987508020425	0.95270337089102	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.59	39.64	52.615	157.77607756383	0	0.3	4.4	4.7	T	F	33.59	226.59	128	457.83754153695	72.235811465168	0.95317259404042	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	66.51	39.48	52.995	157.78810588259	0	0.29	4.36	4.65	T	F	34.51	225.51	128	457.84182064996	72.241993674193	0.96116043084547	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-03 12:01:29	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	68.31	38.94	53.625	158.32926396125	0.0008	0.5208	4.35	4.8708	T	F	36.31	225.31	128	458.03420418279	72.52021841734	0.97358994784335	88	5	1	2	3	1	1	24	WET	L
2020-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	68.34	38.98	53.66	158.0408183875	0.0008	0.4308	4.42	4.8508	T	F	36.34	225.34	128	457.93169371405	72.371899640141	0.97376503374837	88	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	WET	L
2020-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	66.5	39.39	52.945	158.72728553773	0	0.35	4.55	4.9	T	F	34.5	221.5	128	458.1755335261	72.7249587364	0.9610799700707	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.11	42.78	53.445	159.60596380213	0.0008	0.5108	3.82	4.3308	T	F	32.11	203.11	128	458.48702883583	73.177264128115	0.93762382538583	88	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-02 19:57:17	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.14	42.8	53.47	159.27738935783	0.0008	0.4508	4.47	4.9208	T	F	32.14	225.14	128	458.3706291198	73.008077164507	0.937974623339	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	58.91	40.75	49.83	159.99905818492	0.0012	0.2112	4.54	4.7512	T	F	26.91	223.91	128	458.6261576049	73.379753275751	0.85069644407484	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.15	41.05	53.1	160.0037830912	0.0027	0.3727	4.45	4.8227	T	F	33.15	221.15	128	458.62782905673	73.38218767998	0.94891331385554	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.19	41.09	53.14	159.69991782401	0.0027	0.3727	4.46	4.8327	T	F	33.19	223.19	128	458.52029482605	73.225653404361	0.94931279442703	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	64.3	40.39	52.345	160.36516785558	0.0027	0.4127	4.62	5.0327	T	F	32.3	225.3	128	458.75561073658	73.568420520459	0.93981969707787	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	65.98	41.01	53.495	158.86458603842	0.0009	0.1009	4.57	4.6709	T	F	33.98	229.98	128	458.2242529979	72.795606265276	0.95670602541627	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 19:57:21	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	66.01	41.05	53.53	160.4267157479	0.0006	0.1006	4.62	4.7206	T	F	34.01	248.01	128	458.77736170783	73.600145398275	0.95696868923787	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	66.97	41.31	54.14	160.77454644895	0	0.24	4.48	4.72	T	F	34.97	247.97	128	458.90022088443	73.779474878015	0.96471804343055	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	58.49	43.96	51.225	159.6622131887	0.002	0.232	4.47	4.702	T	F	26.49	241.49	128	458.50694582402	73.206233732654	0.84120605097494	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	48.34	45.37	46.855	159.96900133141	0.002	0.062	4.62	4.682	T	F	16.34	225.34	128	458.61552441997	73.364267436542	0.51333118526217	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-01 03:57:15	FORECAST	2020	221	-65	43.74	42.66	43.2	161.24406572781	0.0015	0.3915	4.77	5.1615	T	F	11.74	221.74	128	459.06589029104	74.021650587485	0.34299550588554	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L