Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 7, 2020

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DAY 220 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/08/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.63°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.97°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.80°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.613 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 181 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.76 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.40 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 127 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.57 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.45 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -66 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-08 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	220	-66	50.63	22.96994	36.79997	164.17454041667	0	0.64	4.76	5.4	T	F	18.63	180.63	127	459.57079892702	75.449824702764	0.61268561541609	93	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-65	43.61	43.61	43.61	162.936532	0	0.64	4.76	5.4	T	F	11.61	173.61	128	459.66143828607	74.895640648465	0.35255040589068	93	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-65	57.55	43.94	50.745	162.71385733333	0.0061	0.6461	4.76	5.4061	T	F	25.55	187.55	128	459.58322931776	74.780560008002	0.82683852099741	93	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-65	52.62	33.47	43.045	162.727524	0.0058	0.6458	4.76	5.4058	T	F	20.62	182.62	128	459.58803067059	74.787622291061	0.68252640658298	93	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-65	57.6	26.36	41.98	163.01467058333	0.0099	0.6499	4.76	5.4099	T	F	25.6	187.6	128	459.68887204762	74.936030047666	0.82804890911903	93	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	57.76	29.69	43.725	162.59462933333	0.0088	0.0688	4.76	4.8288	T	F	25.76	177.76	127	459.01457210322	74.633304209721	0.83188583511358	93	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	57.75	28.93	43.34	162.60332133333	0.0086	0.2086	4.76	4.9686	T	F	25.75	181.75	127	459.0176383374	74.637792544244	0.83164764949771	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.49	29.05	43.77	162.57462133333	0.005	0.205	4.76	4.965	T	F	26.49	182.49	127	459.00751372197	74.622972732505	0.84868828775158	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.33	29.62	43.975	162.75808330572	0.0022	0.2022	4.76	4.9622	T	F	26.33	182.33	127	459.07222162736	74.717714890966	0.84510437058176	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.22	29.83	44.525	162.53094623724	0.0016	0.2716	4.76	5.0316	T	F	27.22	182.22	127	458.99210486488	74.600421119114	0.86433761297201	93	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.19	30.13	44.66	162.43521387313	0.0016	0.4516	4.76	5.2116	T	F	27.19	186.19	127	458.95832388572	74.550993499232	0.86371711929139	93	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-05 23:59:24	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.32	29.94	44.63	164.28920666667	0.0014	0.5714	4.76	5.3314	T	F	27.32	193.32	127	459.61108175502	75.50913999674	0.86639197479217	93	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.47	29.92	44.695	165.31058836881	0.0012	0.5312	4.76	5.2912	T	F	27.47	193.47	127	459.96938104202	76.037809011691	0.86943334726991	93	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.41	28.27	43.84	166.32322035087	0.0016	0.5316	4.76	5.2916	T	F	27.41	192.41	127	460.32369449289	76.562519271869	0.86822257549819	93	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 11:57:09	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.4	30	44.7	165.13292708892	0.0022	0.5122	4.76	5.2722	T	F	27.4	192.4	127	459.90712447318	75.945809653305	0.86802003171647	93	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.22	30.19	44.705	165.10517814074	0.0018	0.4018	4.76	5.1618	T	F	27.22	188.22	127	459.89739807124	75.931441835014	0.86433761297201	93	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-05 03:59:25	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.41	30.4	44.905	164.92693257178	0.0012	0.4312	4.76	5.1912	T	F	27.41	189.41	127	459.8349041106	75.839160224397	0.86822257549819	93	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.31	30.36	44.835	164.33890991758	0.0006	0.3606	4.76	5.1206	T	F	27.31	194.31	127	459.62853911139	75.534853084574	0.86618750370016	93	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.6	30.22	44.91	165.7532756033	0.0006	0.4106	4.78	5.1906	T	F	27.6	206.6	127	460.1243865952	76.267124263114	0.87203031352262	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.98	30.33	45.155	165.34160745029	0.0013	0.3813	4.78	5.1613	T	F	27.98	208.98	127	459.98024795594	76.053873592419	0.87941546554923	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	60.7	30.03	45.365	164.70027191209	0.0005	0.3405	4.78	5.1205	T	F	28.7	207.7	127	459.75539465396	75.721838512559	0.89257656660912	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	55.68	29.93	42.805	164.43562963674	0.0013	0.2713	4.76	5.0313	T	F	23.68	197.68	127	459.66250382443	75.584893236772	0.77774117781385	93	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	60.77	29.77	45.27	164.21866082203	0.0011	0.3011	4.77	5.0711	T	F	28.77	214.77	127	459.58630003511	75.472646723918	0.89379880411628	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.77	27.26	43.515	159.68893194572	0.0006	0.3906	4.19	4.5806	T	F	27.77	197.77	127	457.98574021769	73.135253701735	0.87537204439546	93	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.81	26.78	43.295	160.17763889717	0.0011	0.4011	4.3	4.7011	T	F	27.81	210.81	127	458.15931022908	73.386876551248	0.87614941529112	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.96	29.94	44.95	160.23039388259	0.0016	0.3616	4.29	4.6516	T	F	27.96	208.96	127	458.17803390044	73.414046840218	0.87903439313223	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-03 12:01:29	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.3	31.68	44.99	160.81134929459	0.0019	0.5919	4.28	4.8719	T	F	26.3	207.3	127	458.38405932498	73.71335907518	0.84442621120452	93	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.34	31.72	45.03	160.52815172083	0.0019	0.5019	4.35	4.8519	T	F	26.34	207.34	127	458.2836663591	73.567429924473	0.84532999030844	93	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.07	32.79	45.43	161.1307602044	0.0065	0.4665	4.43	4.8965	T	F	26.07	205.07	127	458.49720322215	73.878002906775	0.8391621874853	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.34	32.66	46	162.12779180213	0.0022	0.5822	3.75	4.3322	T	F	27.34	189.34	127	458.84978862218	74.392302998186	0.86680027407168	93	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-02 19:57:17	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.37	32.7	46.035	161.80359069116	0.0022	0.5522	4.37	4.9222	T	F	27.37	211.37	127	458.73523767213	74.225008631914	0.8674111163597	93	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.41	30.75	45.08	162.22005551825	0.0011	0.3111	4.44	4.7511	T	F	27.41	215.41	127	458.88237119881	74.439923732218	0.86822257549819	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.8	29.88	44.34	162.41037375786	0.0027	0.5027	4.32	4.8227	T	F	26.8	205.8	127	458.94955723795	74.53816912702	0.85547442802251	93	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.84	29.92	44.38	162.11093649068	0.0027	0.4627	4.37	4.8327	T	F	26.84	207.84	127	458.84383540881	74.383603861096	0.85633492573594	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.09	30.86	44.475	162.68062918891	0.0037	0.6137	4.42	5.0337	T	F	26.09	211.09	127	459.04490687186	74.677714275878	0.83962448011497	93	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.81	31.16	45.485	161.37318470509	0.0023	0.2623	4.41	4.6723	T	F	27.81	213.81	127	458.58301521936	74.00300161761	0.87614941529112	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 19:57:21	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.85	31.19	45.52	162.51995708124	0.0023	0.2623	4.46	4.7223	T	F	27.85	231.85	127	458.98822755022	74.594747042255	0.87692339602106	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.83	30.48	45.155	162.29214778228	0.001	0.261	4.46	4.721	T	F	27.83	230.83	127	458.90782499109	74.477136551899	0.87653682919626	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	62.23	34.14	48.185	160.69060252203	0.0024	0.3324	4.37	4.7024	T	F	30.23	233.23	127	458.3412636698	73.651133819809	0.91705045366019	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	63.56	37.93	50.745	160.58963199807	0.0023	0.1823	4.5	4.6823	T	F	31.56	226.56	127	458.30546713014	73.599106309134	0.93470269925886	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 03:57:15	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	58.13	34.51	46.32	161.49012039448	0.1065	0.5065	4.65	5.1565	T	F	26.13	228.13	127	458.62438853903	74.063307721012	0.84054646462865	93	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-05-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.18	34.84	47.01	167.14545034281	0.0146	1.6346	5.09	6.7246	T	T	27.18	216.18	127	460.61071785556	76.98898586869	0.863509858462	93	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-04-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	59.23	34.85	47.04	167.92373201526	0.014	1.634	5.23	6.864	T	T	27.23	221.23	127	460.8818480969	77.392999950523	0.86454401472164	93	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2020-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	55.93	32.62	44.275	167.11618797105	0.0146	1.5646	5.33	6.8946	T	T	23.93	223.93	127	460.6005132549	76.973801952668	0.78473001700771	93	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	47.3	33.96	40.63	165.08200410139	0.0029	0.3929	5.08	5.4729	T	F	15.3	214.3	127	459.88927471474	75.919443134643	0.48842698318271	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	38.85	36.49	37.67	165.11701985163	0.0011	0.4311	5.02	5.4511	T	F	6.85	209.85	127	459.90154884358	75.9375731702	0.2034776033859	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	220	-66	40.18	38.35	39.265	164.04742461673	0.0005	0.1905	5.04	5.2305	T	F	8.18	219.18	127	459.52612879529	75.384077972966	0.2409402978705	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L