Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 6, 2020

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DAY 219 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/07/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.57°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.02°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.30°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.261 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 172 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.58 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.65 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.75 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.40 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 126 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.46 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-07 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	219	-67	39.57008	27.01994	33.29501	164.36154791667	0.57999999999998	0.64999999999998	4.75	5.4	T	F	7.57008	171.57008	126	459.11008869552	75.460044842153	0.26143370846388	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-66	29.54	29.54	29.54	164	0.0011	0.0711	4.75	4.8211	T	F	-2.46	161.54	127	459.5094594787	75.359551354507	0.05990689145181	92	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-66	33.93	29.45	31.69	164.17504330572	0.1365	0.2065	4.75	4.9565	T	F	1.93	165.93	127	459.57097562008	75.450084824477	0.12424467276256	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-66	32.97	30.06	31.515	163.98311157058	0.2066	0.2766	4.75	5.0266	T	F	0.97	164.97	127	459.50352286622	75.350817457246	0.10716027056009	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	219	-66	36.73	30.15	33.44	163.90328720647	0.3931	0.4631	4.75	5.2131	T	F	4.73	168.73	127	459.47545959796	75.309538218809	0.18452866894828	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-05 23:59:24	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.68	30.03	34.355	165.791556	0.3774	0.5774	4.75	5.3274	T	F	6.68	175.68	126	459.61328983895	76.200002480679	0.23570423929703	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.8	28.34	33.57	166.78762703547	0.3398	0.5398	4.75	5.2898	T	F	6.8	175.8	126	459.96271582704	76.716089897583	0.23908971745696	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.32	30.04	34.18	167.7900757933	0.3449	0.5449	4.75	5.2949	T	F	6.32	175.32	126	460.31348771666	77.236034992656	0.22570793412459	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 11:57:09	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	37.97	30.23	34.1	166.62537123018	0.3211	0.5211	4.75	5.2711	T	F	5.97	174.97	126	459.90585605323	76.631983995805	0.21622313372877	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	37.94	30.4	34.17	166.5907026851	0.3377	0.4077	4.75	5.1577	T	F	5.94	170.94	126	459.89370401544	76.614015312387	0.21542101157622	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-05 03:59:25	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	37.83	30.62	34.225	166.42625530844	0.3233	0.4433	4.75	5.1933	T	F	5.83	171.83	126	459.83604725049	76.528791399733	0.21249467802691	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.54	30.34	34.44	165.82604738654	0.262	0.372	4.75	5.122	T	F	6.54	176.54	126	459.62540434723	76.217864081343	0.23178810060866	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38	30.19	34.095	167.26540873751	0.3057	0.4357	4.75	5.1857	T	F	6	189	126	460.13001022758	76.963834233112	0.21702697924674	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	39.74	30.18	34.96	166.88709593112	0.2814	0.4114	4.75	5.1614	T	F	7.74	190.74	126	459.99756141705	76.76765716029	0.26650430961968	92	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.39	29.96	34.175	166.22094614485	0.2823	0.3723	4.75	5.1223	T	F	6.39	189.39	126	459.76403015576	76.422412095861	0.22763269980454	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.51	30.1	34.305	165.81348715813	0.2036	0.2836	4.75	5.0336	T	F	6.51	183.51	126	459.62099290518	76.211359604692	0.23095366098582	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	42.22	29.79	36.005	165.72505629739	0.2615	0.3215	4.75	5.0715	T	F	10.22	196.22	126	459.5899299624	76.165567016732	0.34566855502932	92	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	37.58	30.26	33.92	161.10148504619	0.2881	0.4481	4.13	4.5781	T	F	5.58	179.58	126	457.95605913922	73.777401213231	0.20593077079013	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	37.66	29.92	33.79	161.59240035553	0.2976	0.4576	4.24	4.6976	T	F	5.66	192.66	126	458.13044997296	74.030399087091	0.20801804803128	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	37.46	30.83	34.145	161.63714316075	0.2874	0.4074	4.24	4.6474	T	F	5.46	191.46	126	458.14633342204	74.053464483911	0.20282320898848	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-05-03 12:01:29	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.46	32.33	35.395	162.15084589442	0.5178	0.6278	4.24	4.8678	T	F	6.46	191.46	126	458.32856578237	74.318364639189	0.22956665613823	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.06	32.38	35.22	161.87289066181	0.4272	0.5372	4.31	4.8472	T	F	6.06	191.06	126	458.22999267927	74.175013502933	0.21863983106926	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	38.04	33.28	35.66	162.4746057477	0.3401	0.5201	4.37	4.8901	T	F	6.04	189.04	126	458.44329517479	74.485393641201	0.21810145004749	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	39.29	32.87	36.08	163.63870058343	0.5061	0.6561	3.67	4.3261	T	F	7.29	172.29	126	458.85503187104	75.086441171547	0.25318513797109	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-02 19:57:17	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	39.34	32.91	36.125	163.31910575869	0.4537	0.6837	4.24	4.9237	T	F	7.34	194.34	126	458.74211339263	74.921351733135	0.25464758787411	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	43.17	31.24	37.205	163.63502751866	0.2091	0.4491	4.3	4.7491	T	F	11.17	198.17	126	458.8537346332	75.084543493746	0.37815577950793	92	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	36.67	30.09	33.38	163.78607381346	0.3742	0.6042	4.22	4.8242	T	F	4.67	188.67	126	458.90707055608	75.162587331615	0.18307197245364	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	36.72	30.15	33.435	163.49037463352	0.3742	0.5642	4.27	4.8342	T	F	4.72	190.72	126	458.80263710032	75.00981502238	0.18428538800412	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	34.84	32.29	33.565	164.00911391848	0.4133	0.7033	4.33	5.0333	T	F	2.84	194.84	126	458.98579078946	75.277852848553	0.14211271282806	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	50.32	32.17	41.245	162.84314787061	0.1028	0.3528	4.32	4.6728	T	F	18.32	196.32	126	458.57377909439	74.675597718653	0.63393533577078	92	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-05-01 19:57:21	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	50.35	32.22	41.285	163.99435699632	0.1028	0.3528	4.37	4.7228	T	F	18.35	214.35	126	458.9805838286	75.270225718766	0.63496511886385	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	49.33	30.85	40.09	163.79755844895	0.2352	0.3352	4.38	4.7152	T	F	17.33	213.33	126	458.9111250561	75.168521829248	0.59945273554133	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-01 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	49.59	32.68	41.135	162.5838731887	0.226	0.536	4.16	4.696	T	F	17.59	212.59	126	458.4819945205	74.541778456422	0.60859639239394	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	54.62	34.6	44.61	162.74464666474	0.057	0.437	4.24	4.677	T	F	22.62	204.62	126	458.5389162794	74.624753911923	0.76877435825633	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-01 03:57:15	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	48.76	33.25	41.005	163.05703106115	0.2802	0.7102	4.34	5.0502	T	F	16.76	211.76	126	458.64944936118	74.786017510663	0.57922200142443	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	41.49	31.88	36.685	168.74745700947	1.1666	2.0466	4.66	6.7066	T	T	9.49	199.49	126	460.64765701003	77.733120697815	0.32144047783211	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	41.62	31.27	36.445	169.30548668193	1.1441	2.1241	4.73	6.8541	T	T	9.62	203.62	126	460.84206003971	78.023089258526	0.32570357871233	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	42.66	32.05	37.355	167.75469463772	1.0951	2.0551	4.82	6.8751	T	T	10.66	209.66	126	460.30112251777	77.217674249367	0.36059115514368	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	42.81	30.63	36.72	165.41787610139	0.1905	0.5905	4.88	5.4705	T	F	10.81	208.81	126	459.48197312125	76.006532100592	0.36572867875239	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	46.15	29.36	37.755	165.37121985163	0.1225	0.5725	4.88	5.4525	T	F	14.15	213.15	126	459.46556866152	75.982381569378	0.48471389536975	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	53.88	30.95	42.415	164.20940195007	0.0035	0.3135	4.92	5.2335	T	F	21.88	220.88	126	459.05644286442	75.381383944091	0.74769647929036	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	59.13	34.35	46.74	163.5945161448	0.0019	0.0719	4.7	4.7719	T	F	27.13	221.13	126	458.83942619074	75.063613915834	0.87425445209853	92	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	60.08	32.23	46.155	165.84025218363	0.0012	0.2612	4.86	5.1212	T	F	28.08	229.08	126	459.63039323017	76.225220324551	0.8913174120389	92	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	54.5	31.46	42.98	166.08181977126	0.0009	0.2909	4.93	5.2209	T	F	22.5	231.5	126	459.71520690404	76.350338139142	0.76542438763492	92	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	36.37	29.08	32.725	167.74191529431	0.0364	0.7964	4.73	5.5264	T	F	4.37	206.37	126	460.29665605008	77.211042689404	0.17589632288666	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	30.7	29.11	29.905	167.61255635851	0.0298	0.7898	4.82	5.6098	T	F	-1.3	191.7	126	460.25143605726	77.143919765234	0.073615231044722	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-04-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	219	-67	29.6	28.54	29.07	167.3509902552	0.006	0.776	4.79	5.566	T	F	-2.4	190.6	126	460.15995500744	77.008224146284	0.060563245366056	92	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L