MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 4, 2020

[ Sunday, May 3, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 5, 2020 ]

DAY 217 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.193
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 175

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 165 in
SWE DAY: 124
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2020217-6836.1236.1236.12166.977477333330.00571.48573.424.9057TF4.12175.12125459.5043102067276.7268705421110.19292213139044901114126WETL
2020-05-04 12:00:01FORECAST2020217-6849.9635.7842.87167.225537333330.02521.50523.424.9252TF17.96188.96125459.5914820459776.855432538960.658019487725939031151212.5WETL
2020-05-04 08:00:02FORECAST2020217-6846.5329.0637.795167.18590840050.0061.4863.424.906TF14.53185.53125459.577559557176.8348917750390.536366693433519031141210WETL
2020-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2020217-6850.5928.2339.41166.930641507980.02181.50183.424.9218TF18.59189.59125459.4878452614376.7026007746120.679057842307949031151212.5WETL
2020-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2020217-6950.3324.7737.55162.162671463090.06180.92183.424.3418TF18.33179.33124457.2680060472774.1518014352240.67043998511652903113127.5WETL
2020-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2020217-6949.9425.437.67162.18089641420.05971.02973.424.4497TF17.94191.94124457.2745159450874.1611909033450.657343063746889031141210WETL
2020-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2020217-6949.7624.4737.115162.193339980020.04731.01733.424.4373TF17.76191.76124457.2789605763174.1676019184650.651232772152059031141210WETL
2020-05-03 12:01:29FORECAST2020217-6948.5225.937.21162.446744295060.03811.00813.424.4281TF16.52190.52124457.3694417587874.2981767537620.608146284821169031141210WETL
2020-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2020217-6948.626.5237.56162.645035722510.04461.08463.424.5046TF16.6190.6124457.4402035900174.4003782538110.610973023440769031141210WETL
2020-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2020217-6948.3926.9937.69163.366658675610.0641.1643.424.584TF16.39189.39124457.6974196826574.7724981380020.603540700550519031141210WETL
2020-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020217-6942.9627.3635.16164.582184104380.08330.48333.423.9033TF10.96171.96124458.1296184425875.3999732061860.40618019845039902112124DRYL
2020-05-02 19:57:17FORECAST2020217-6947.2127.5137.36164.224881950160.13331.10333.424.5233TF15.21194.21124458.0027126083675.2154414109580.561150789863199031141210WETL
2020-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2020217-6946.8427.9437.39164.613809100390.13841.16843.424.5884TF14.84193.84124458.1408453955775.416309665040.547688737617919031141210WETL
2020-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2020217-6948.9527.4838.215164.176364699990.09811.04813.424.4681TF16.95195.95124457.9854714695475.190389791280.623269252256029031141210WETL
2020-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020217-6949.5427.3638.45163.928098548910.10041.10043.424.5204TF17.54197.54124457.8972140997375.0622196382110.643711196999769031141210WETL
2020-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2020217-6950.0927.2538.67163.672262884270.091.153.424.57TF18.09197.09124457.806207561274.9301779540090.662403812504529031141210WETL
2020-05-02 00:00:01FORECAST2020217-6949.1428.2638.7164.74238566240.09071.17073.394.5607TF17.14184.14124458.1864811122975.4827339766980.629893247272519031141210WETL
2020-05-01 19:57:21FORECAST2020217-6949.0628.5338.795165.78565188050.09061.20063.414.6106TF17.06202.06124458.5562173365876.0220414150.627108759835799031241212WETL
2020-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2020217-6949.3828.4638.92165.806592304510.08121.20123.414.6112TF17.38200.38124458.5636286509276.0328726214030.638205443426789031241212WETL
2020-05-01 12:00:01FORECAST2020217-6948.4128.5738.49164.660378593890.21261.11263.414.5226TF16.41199.41124458.15737604175.4403669944930.604250210452289031241212WETL
2020-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2020217-6941.0528.9635.005165.012341509510.26041.24043.414.6504TF9.05187.05124458.2822481380175.6222268374930.33972078745229902114128WETL
2020-05-01 03:57:15FORECAST2020217-6946.4528.5937.52164.697415190120.31451.38453.424.8045TF14.45201.45124458.1705214241775.459500594870.5334397138599031241212WETL
2020-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2020217-6944.8726.6535.76165.552430774670.43321.80323.445.2432TF12.87198.87124458.4736481886275.9014269037550.475464245172029021151210WETL
2020-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2020217-6943.2825.9734.625165.830889874210.50081.93083.455.3808TF11.28208.28124458.5722276449776.0454405819610.417645046671139021251212.5WETL
2020-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2020217-6943.9427.0135.475166.030933022480.50732.01733.465.4773TF11.94211.94124458.6430034407276.1489257854960.441502940178059021251212.5WETL
2020-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020217-6946.7928.1237.455165.687363307380.19761.75763.475.2276TF14.79210.79124458.5214254038175.9712059951010.545864977850619031251215WETL
2020-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020217-6947.6628.1737.915165.59429608070.13911.67913.495.1691TF15.66209.66124458.4884737026475.9230760639010.577427249882829031251215WETL
2020-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2020217-6947.6127.8237.715165.358306241950.12311.59313.65.1931TF15.61212.61124458.4048834053775.801055092950.575624740480979031251215WETL
2020-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2020217-6944.7126.7935.75165.950341508580.04461.56463.334.8946TF12.71201.71124458.6144942751576.1072319457440.469601755035449021251212.5WETL
2020-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2020217-6939.7626.8733.315167.356827226850.13411.60413.545.1441TF7.76212.76124459.1112003216276.8353938301360.297365554336849021251212.5WETL
2020-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2020217-6944.528.2136.355167.014546440860.09121.66123.515.1712TF12.5219.5124458.9904858168676.6580878093760.461917425649249021251212.5WETL
2020-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020217-6944.4629.737.08167.529475895830.36381.72383.525.2438TF12.46220.46124459.1720497004876.9248528323370.460455265661679021251212.5WETL
2020-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2020217-6944.4929.7337.11167.36984323740.36381.79383.545.3338TF12.49211.49124459.1157886960476.8421375818710.461551836617779021251212.5WETL
2020-04-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020217-6943.3829.0636.22166.605684964510.33881.70883.575.2788TF11.38211.38124458.8461522214576.4463774841850.421242703824369021251212.5WETL
2020-04-29 00:00:04FORECAST2020217-6944.3628.4636.41164.615971683490.06560.96563.574.5356TF12.36209.36124458.1416130850675.4174268066390.45680224697797902123127.5WETL
2020-04-28 20:00:01FORECAST2020217-6938.9828.3533.665166.373428907760.25271.15273.544.6927TF6.98216.98124458.7640959302476.3261556996840.272985395241429021241210WETL
2020-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2020217-6942.5728.335.435165.473298166480.19790.92793.534.4579TF10.57221.57124458.4456211180375.860508956380.39231632579039902123127.5WETL
2020-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020217-6940.922834.46166.542901356710.32671.54673.485.0267TF8.92215.92124458.8239754855376.4138760893790.335347682131719021251212.5WETL
2020-04-28 08:00:01FORECAST2020217-6939.1727.6133.39166.996892091760.31241.72243.545.2624TF7.17208.17124458.9842566902876.6489443863210.278831999617569021251212.5WETL
2020-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020217-6941.0229.5635.29166.276671990770.28391.53393.595.1239TF9.02211.02124458.729897330876.2760806708330.338709667196099021251212.5WETL
2020-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2020217-6942.9328.5935.76166.896316122890.20351.24352.814.0535TF10.93208.93124458.9487643298776.596858055810.405109319345949021241210WETL
2020-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2020217-6942.9628.6435.8167.21112528940.19671.23672.894.1267TF10.96217.96124459.059827451776.7599103233570.406180198450399021241210WETL
2020-04-27 16:01:19FORECAST2020217-6941.1728.0134.59167.411668674630.17911.13912.914.0491TF9.17213.17124459.130531877176.8638084810160.343776743881059021241210WETL
2020-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2020217-6936.429.5132.955164.856278204790.01820.73822.983.7182TF4.4215.4124458.2268925795575.5415800840110.20006485181667901123126DRYL
2020-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2020217-6930.729.5330.115164.744811922330.01380.73383.34.0338TF-1.3209.7124458.1873421221775.4839875031120.085853543650667901123126WETL
2020-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020217-6929.7229.4729.595164.951699721960.01070.72073.544.2607TF-2.28206.72124458.2607411397775.5908881668480.072534789368991901123126WETL