Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 30, 2020

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DAY 243 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/31/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.57°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.40°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.48°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.796 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 240 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.34 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.34 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.62 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.96 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 120 in SWE DAY: 150 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.07 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 54.70 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -43 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 14.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-31 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	243	-43	60.56996	32.39996	46.48496	119.93250291667	1.34	1.34	2.62	3.96	T	F	28.56996	239.56996	150	456.07255613675	54.697923169082	0.79624239025063	85	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-42	32.06	32.06	32.06	123.999672	0.0019	0.0019	2.62	2.6219	F	F	0.060000000000002	211.06	151	458.06257118285	56.79960858215	0.053930925548329	85	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-05-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-42	59.8	38.55	49.175	123.82816533333	0.6655	0.6655	2.62	3.2855	F	F	27.8	238.8	151	458.00164096211	56.713502919994	0.77711831563978	85	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-42	61.92	39.73	50.825	123.196656	0.7296	0.7296	2.62	3.3496	F	F	29.92	240.92	151	457.77705920851	56.396602888002	0.82731952069931	85	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 03:55:51	FORECAST	2020	243	-42	61.34	40.12	50.73	122.62336666667	0.6897	0.6897	2.62	3.3097	F	F	29.34	240.34	151	457.57286987116	56.109125798931	0.81435657231331	85	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	59.11	39.68	49.395	122.21025066667	1.0055	1.0055	2.62	3.6255	T	F	27.11	238.11	150	456.89072683831	55.836730254185	0.75914534325209	85	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	60.17	39.79	49.98	124.339264	1.0392	1.0592	2.62	3.6792	T	F	28.17	256.17	150	457.65120375352	56.904013843427	0.7864328783231	85	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-29 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	61.6	39.75	50.675	124.30586266667	1.0365	1.0565	2.62	3.6765	T	F	29.6	257.6	150	457.63930462692	56.887248551823	0.82024035854686	85	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	62.55	39.92	51.235	121.81765466667	1.0077	1.0277	2.62	3.6477	T	F	30.55	258.55	150	456.75004312692	55.64021902262	0.8407305151264	85	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-29 07:55:42	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	62.36	40.07	51.215	121.13497733333	0.625	0.655	2.62	3.275	F	F	30.36	258.36	150	456.50507671693	55.298732120657	0.83675955124656	85	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	57.41	38.98	48.195	121.06875258333	0.5491	0.5691	2.62	3.1891	F	F	25.41	254.41	150	456.48129055409	55.265620425013	0.71169857083509	85	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	61.92	38.2	50.06	122.24380133333	0.7651	0.7851	2.62	3.4051	T	F	29.92	243.92	150	456.90274295231	55.853528138117	0.82731952069931	85	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	64.75	36.69	50.72	124.34641066667	0.6044	0.6444	2.62	3.2644	F	F	32.75	263.75	150	457.65374960137	56.907601091071	0.88209787005485	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.58	36.72	51.65	124.21936533333	0.5478	0.5778	2.62	3.1978	F	F	34.58	265.58	150	457.60848551417	56.843835641718	0.9102151112263	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	67.65	37.14	52.395	121.927192	0.8118	0.8318	2.62	3.4518	T	F	35.65	265.65	150	456.78930908657	55.695037792545	0.92416540639151	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.88	36.82	51.85	121.58388533333	0.5801	0.5901	2.62	3.2101	F	F	34.88	260.88	150	456.66620704999	55.523251753574	0.91430536458688	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	67.21	36.46	51.835	120.74673408333	0.6112	0.6212	2.62	3.2412	F	F	35.21	265.21	150	456.36557305696	55.104652494697	0.91864226459713	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	65.48	37.79	51.635	121.48229733333	0.4545	0.4645	2.62	3.0845	F	F	33.48	253.48	150	456.62975929508	55.472432189934	0.89397950736433	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	65.26	37.87	51.565	123.54636666667	0.805	0.815	2.63	3.445	T	F	33.26	267.26	150	457.36846377847	56.506211927745	0.89049328528229	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.4	38.71	52.555	123.52182133333	0.7221	0.7321	2.63	3.3621	F	F	34.4	265.4	150	457.35970204611	56.493903401206	0.90769251458143	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	60.28	41.23	50.755	121.51068933333	0.4251	0.4251	2.63	3.0551	F	F	28.28	261.28	150	456.63994672721	55.48663470396	0.789157786043	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-27 07:59:12	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	61.33	41.27	51.3	121.19641066667	0.4487	0.4587	2.63	3.0887	F	F	29.33	262.33	150	456.52713835372	55.329450540395	0.8141279174101	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-27 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	65.71	40.61	53.16	120.59043516667	0.5489	0.5489	2.64	3.1889	F	F	33.71	267.71	150	456.30937284087	55.026545841509	0.89753796561257	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.57	39.56	53.065	122.61514	0.5333	0.5333	2.56	3.0933	F	F	34.57	265.57	150	457.03566889749	56.039492526859	0.91007632073997	85	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.28	38.91	52.595	123.55364	0.3664	0.3664	2.57	2.9364	F	F	34.28	280.28	150	457.37105997156	56.509859290145	0.90598197916705	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	69.86	38.35	54.105	123.44332266667	0.3036	0.3036	2.56	2.8636	F	F	37.86	282.86	150	457.33167739829	56.454541818765	0.94769923587869	85	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2020-05-26 11:55:51	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.94	36.61	51.775	122.57204533333	0.2821	0.2821	2.56	2.8421	F	F	34.94	278.94	150	457.02024898003	56.017906676231	0.91510646280604	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	63.98	37.41	50.695	122.80191866667	0.3228	0.3228	2.57	2.8928	F	F	31.98	264.98	150	457.10248159561	56.133061767235	0.86857926534858	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	63.44	36.59	50.015	122.1004445	0.3668	0.3668	2.58	2.9468	F	F	31.44	274.44	150	456.85139278639	55.781758129662	0.85848470180752	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	61.15	38.61	49.88	122.05282133333	0.3656	0.3756	2.31	2.6856	F	F	29.15	274.15	150	456.83433011386	55.75791887232	0.80998237852417	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	61.2	38.67	49.935	123.11940533333	0.3656	0.3656	2.52	2.8856	F	F	29.2	280.2	150	457.21597721748	56.292159223915	0.81113956602332	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	62.05	41.42	51.735	123.11984266667	0.2775	0.2775	2.55	2.8275	F	F	30.05	280.05	150	457.21613349296	56.292378420315	0.830144078098	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	62.03	49.31	55.67	121.85890133333	0.2525	0.2625	2.54	2.8025	F	F	30.03	278.03	150	456.76483014398	55.660860369051	0.82971146486535	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	62.07	49.38	55.725	121.67571333333	0.2525	0.2625	2.65	2.9125	F	F	30.07	275.07	150	456.69914501908	55.56919424892	0.83057598773601	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	63.8	49.22	56.51	121.65724158333	0.2897	0.2997	2.78	3.0797	F	F	31.8	282.8	150	456.69251996735	55.55995223097	0.86527099521365	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	66.92	50.93	58.925	123.89846266667	0.2904	0.3004	2.76	3.0604	F	F	34.92	272.92	150	457.49408829871	56.682814219298	0.91484005415541	85	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	69.19	52.16	60.675	124.350648	0.1955	0.2055	2.71	2.9155	F	F	37.19	299.19	150	457.65525903933	56.909728022148	0.94127172719119	85	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2020-05-24 15:59:13	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	72.23	51.38	61.805	124.3618	0.0018	0.0318	2.71	2.7418	F	F	40.23	299.23	150	457.65923156681	56.915325824266	0.96608562367537	85	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-05-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	69.36	49.07	59.215	122.89700666667	0.3251	0.3651	2.76	3.1251	F	F	37.36	293.36	150	457.13648340158	56.18070544818	0.94295832714892	85	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2020-05-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	69.38	49.11	59.245	122.7628	0.3251	0.3651	2.85	3.2151	F	F	37.38	292.38	150	457.08849106014	56.113463010317	0.94315422641588	85	5	1	2	2	1	1	16	DRY	L
2020-05-24 03:56:10	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	67.06	51.23	59.145	122.69616133333	0.0615	0.0615	2.88	2.9415	F	F	35.06	293.06	150	457.06465497525	56.080078646608	0.91669185163882	85	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	54.54	38.32	46.43	124.04795866667	0.581	0.591	2.62	3.211	F	F	22.54	286.54	150	457.54739308795	56.757820105815	0.62295216926399	85	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-23 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	54.56	41.47	48.015	125.46512	0.4168	0.4268	2.58	3.0068	F	F	22.56	297.56	150	458.05169671072	57.469511094014	0.62360077953541	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	59.47	48.62	54.045	125.48206666667	0.13	0.13	2.59	2.72	F	F	27.47	296.47	150	458.05771628611	57.478028892195	0.76861928005832	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-23 11:56:01	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	55.64	51.2	53.42	124.46646933333	0.067	0.137	2.51	2.647	F	F	23.64	296.64	150	457.69651103669	56.967868754922	0.65806436136059	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	54.52	51.21	52.865	125.05091066667	0.0467	0.1167	2.56	2.6767	F	F	22.52	291.52	150	457.90448604465	57.261372978236	0.62230321199988	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	243	-43	54.35	52.43	53.39	125.09395916667	0.0476	0.0676	2.46	2.5276	F	F	22.35	297.35	150	457.91979276388	57.282999857613	0.61677330737579	85	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L