Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 3, 2020

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DAY 216 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/04/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.53°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.145 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.62 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.51 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.39 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.90 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 168 in SWE DAY: 123 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.72 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 76.96 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -70 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-04 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	216	-70	34.77002	24.53	29.65001	167.75885083333	0.62	1.51	3.39	4.9	T	F	2.77002	188.77002	123	458.72498930761	76.955177054778	0.14469240569236	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-69	24.61	24.61	24.61	163.00361636439	0.0008	0.8908	3.39	4.2808	T	F	-7.39	178.61	124	457.56807540512	74.585251023927	0.014980920066929	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-05-03 12:01:29	FORECAST	2020	216	-69	37.94	26.42	32.18	163.12772388579	0.1061	0.9961	3.39	4.3861	T	F	5.94	191.94	124	457.61230570156	74.649253851224	0.23767633634007	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-69	38.1	27.39	32.745	163.36502456261	0.1826	1.0726	3.39	4.4626	T	F	6.1	192.1	124	457.69683775003	74.771655141263	0.24310327864795	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	216	-69	37.07	26.68	31.875	164.11385729917	0.2439	1.1339	3.39	4.5239	T	F	5.07	191.07	124	457.96325564447	75.158116385099	0.20935961049773	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.52	25.78	32.65	165.1807159856	0.3849	0.4349	3.39	3.8249	T	F	7.52	178.52	123	457.81061636639	75.62148539721	0.29405790309291	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-02 19:57:17	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.71	25.5	32.605	164.81481987543	0.3134	1.0034	3.39	4.3934	T	F	7.71	196.71	123	457.68036011945	75.432506113611	0.30123254355243	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.55	26.24	32.895	165.04821113292	0.3739	1.0639	3.39	4.4539	T	F	7.55	196.55	123	457.76345962246	75.553040132702	0.29518548220693	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.68	28.05	33.865	164.75254847402	0.2914	0.9814	3.39	4.3714	T	F	7.68	196.68	123	457.65817991474	75.400351470934	0.30009448013397	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.06	28.06	34.06	164.5677867723	0.2787	1.0287	3.39	4.4187	T	F	8.06	198.06	123	457.59234972305	75.304960237857	0.31465078743892	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.7	28.16	33.93	164.35746281226	0.3185	1.0885	3.39	4.4785	T	F	7.7	196.7	123	457.51737414399	75.196394806834	0.30085297329538	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.49	27.48	33.985	165.52510299573	0.2719	1.0819	3.39	4.4719	T	F	8.49	185.49	123	457.93310499405	75.799424369295	0.3314755250927	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 19:57:21	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.64	27.46	34.05	166.55524921383	0.2784	1.1284	3.39	4.5184	T	F	8.64	202.64	123	458.29885964737	76.332080782983	0.3374277842493	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.43	27.5	33.965	166.57267476076	0.2934	1.1434	3.39	4.5334	T	F	8.43	201.43	123	458.30503838124	76.341096099498	0.32910637508786	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-01 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.39	28.53	34.46	165.1998427787	0.227	0.917	3.39	4.307	T	F	8.39	201.39	123	457.81742203114	75.631366140892	0.32753073634049	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	42.22	29.32	35.77	165.10958975885	0.2396	0.9996	3.39	4.3896	T	F	10.22	196.22	123	457.78530544578	75.584743979784	0.40234316778017	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-01 03:57:15	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	41.7	29.36	35.53	164.88692480062	0.2661	1.0961	3.39	4.4861	T	F	9.7	204.7	123	457.7060385056	75.46974115186	0.38057845339229	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.88	28.62	34.75	165.6529364934	0.4202	1.4202	3.39	4.8102	T	F	8.88	203.88	123	457.9785444593	75.865490740658	0.34703599352896	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.49	27.78	34.135	165.50753895866	0.3989	1.4489	3.43	4.8789	T	F	8.49	215.49	123	457.92686056008	75.790347714365	0.3314755250927	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.94	28.75	34.345	165.76600745755	0.4873	1.5373	3.43	4.9673	T	F	7.94	217.94	123	458.01872416608	75.923935245811	0.3100214237816	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.88	28.42	34.15	165.7688313758	0.5069	1.5969	3.43	5.0269	T	F	7.88	213.88	123	458.01972749623	75.925394974114	0.30771791618902	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	34.29	28.92	31.605	165.86441931639	0.41	1.58	3.45	5.03	T	F	2.29	212.29	123	458.05368537632	75.974808540677	0.13310308909861	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.04	28.03	34.035	165.6198997288	0.3884	1.5384	3.53	5.0684	T	F	8.04	215.04	123	457.9668026841	75.848415939661	0.31387717600304	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.81	28.54	34.175	166.24848082935	0.5392	1.5992	3.25	4.8492	T	F	7.81	206.81	123	458.19004120827	76.173398282012	0.30504003586744	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.1	27.25	33.175	167.25936183185	0.566	1.506	3.5	5.006	T	F	7.1	223.1	123	458.54830562855	76.696496968505	0.27848483548734	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.46	30.4	34.93	167.21535657558	0.5592	1.5992	3.48	5.0792	T	F	7.46	225.46	123	458.5327289522	76.673713773314	0.29180873246244	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.13	30.19	34.66	166.40061214295	0.518	1.398	3.48	4.878	T	F	7.13	226.13	123	458.24401659845	76.252084872826	0.27958376325354	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	39.17	30.22	34.695	166.21375899187	0.518	1.478	3.49	4.968	T	F	7.17	217.17	123	458.17771915924	76.155440987777	0.28105226323326	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.65	30.05	35.35	165.42635651413	0.5205	1.4505	3.49	4.9405	T	F	8.65	217.65	123	457.89799464552	75.748396909337	0.3378260715451	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	35.16	29.44	32.3	164.71446910786	0.3988	0.9388	3.53	4.4688	T	F	3.16	215.16	123	457.64461484691	75.380689774581	0.15459294440821	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	38.83	28.77	33.8	165.57819881197	0.3913	0.9313	3.51	4.4413	T	F	6.83	227.83	123	457.95198012884	75.826864012108	0.26869016714079	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.72	29.67	35.195	164.99266026017	0.3215	0.7415	3.52	4.2615	T	F	8.72	228.72	123	457.74368507132	75.524348317208	0.34061914435538	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.09	29.9	34.995	165.25979640591	0.6068	1.2168	3.48	4.6968	T	F	8.09	225.09	123	457.83875249196	75.66233902356	0.31581272958813	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-04-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	36.81	29.18	32.995	165.6029992481	0.844	1.434	3.52	4.954	T	F	4.81	218.81	123	457.96079561188	75.839681291374	0.20129816765236	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-04-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	36.36	29.85	33.105	165.15409578483	0.6067	1.2767	3.56	4.8367	T	F	4.36	220.36	123	457.80114385905	75.607733963301	0.18779244662266	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-04-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	38.94	29.49	34.215	166.31646602814	0.483	1.053	2.8	3.853	T	F	6.94	215.94	123	458.21416457704	76.208560536489	0.27265964339535	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	38.97	29.51	34.24	166.59402656503	0.483	1.043	2.89	3.933	T	F	6.97	224.97	123	458.31260891086	76.352142943986	0.27374725076541	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-27 16:01:19	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	34.52	30.67	32.595	166.74333288599	0.5084	0.9584	2.91	3.8684	T	F	2.52	221.52	123	458.36553572503	76.429397106861	0.13857410166326	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	41.61	30.43	36.02	164.79192546316	0.2575	0.7175	2.98	3.6975	T	F	9.61	228.61	123	457.6722058569	75.420684034131	0.37684744303596	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	41.64	30.47	36.055	164.65404071802	0.2575	0.7175	3.3	4.0175	T	F	9.64	228.64	123	457.6230856607	75.349490179884	0.37808985560593	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	40.97	30.22	35.595	164.86627086077	0.3068	0.7068	3.54	4.2468	T	F	8.97	226.97	123	457.69868359625	75.459075142396	0.35066497501614	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	35	28.23	31.615	169.12523008584	0.7896	1.0496	3.95	4.9996	T	F	3	204	123	459.20717334045	77.663518848271	0.15047822301377	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-04-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	35.06	30.08	32.57	169.93261264666	0.7629	1.0229	4.1	5.1229	T	F	3.06	222.06	123	459.49130644831	78.082558193191	0.15201263572122	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-04-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	35.4	32.56	33.98	168.88478810795	0.5908	0.8908	3.97	4.8608	T	F	3.4	225.4	123	459.1224446232	77.538796775793	0.16090280637598	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	36.17	34.3	35.235	165.58249137319	0.3546	0.5646	3.99	4.5546	T	F	4.17	233.17	123	457.95350598855	75.829082454673	0.18226177173339	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	34.75	31.7	33.225	165.7022289916	0.1248	0.4348	3.73	4.1648	T	F	2.75	220.75	123	457.99606194102	75.890968333	0.14419591091424	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	216	-70	36.21	35.36	35.785	164.92714022573	0.0809	0.3009	3.92	4.2209	T	F	4.21	227.21	123	457.72035819202	75.490509699704	0.18341760402463	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L