Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 24, 2020

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DAY 237 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/25/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.74°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.88°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.436 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 221 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.17 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 138 in SWE DAY: 144 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.47 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.62 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -49 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-25 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	237	-49	48.74	32.88002	40.81001	138.46264958333	0	0.64	2.17	2.81	F	F	16.74	220.74	144	459.47279911326	63.619821176692	0.43609826062058	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-48	43.44	43.44	43.44	140.93746133333	0.0024	0.6424	2.17	2.8124	F	F	11.44	215.44	145	460.86196154766	64.952714885627	0.2678673472877	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-48	56.3	44.42	50.36	140.64328266667	0.008	0.648	2.17	2.818	F	F	24.3	228.3	145	460.75952656672	64.802732336283	0.68899059262154	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-24 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	237	-48	56.24	39.1	47.67	140.430356	0.0197	0.6597	2.17	2.8297	F	F	24.24	228.24	145	460.685336312	64.694205782274	0.68715480729404	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-24 03:56:10	FORECAST	2020	237	-48	56.43	37.54	46.985	140.34447466667	0.0213	0.6613	2.17	2.8313	F	F	24.43	228.43	145	460.65540123431	64.650440288592	0.69295200002153	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	56.57	36.7	46.635	140.17921733333	0.0121	0.6521	2.17	2.8221	F	F	24.57	228.57	144	460.07503920973	64.492958911022	0.69719309602832	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-23 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	56.82	35.23	46.025	141.26564533333	0.0131	0.6631	2.17	2.8331	F	F	24.82	240.82	144	460.45484664137	65.046451057654	0.70470050143812	89	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	56.76	35.29	46.025	141.24711333333	0.0124	0.6624	2.17	2.8324	F	F	24.76	240.76	144	460.4483767698	65.037004057753	0.70290654108345	89	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-23 11:56:01	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	55.62	36.74	46.18	140.45472	0.0062	0.6562	2.17	2.8262	F	F	23.62	239.62	144	460.17145217836	64.633252467705	0.6679198042998	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	56.18	37.22	46.7	140.483584	0.0055	0.6655	2.17	2.8355	F	F	24.18	236.18	144	460.18154931611	64.647953338599	0.68531437273042	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	52.06	37.52	44.79	140.43030983333	0.0058	0.6658	2.17	2.8358	F	F	20.06	237.06	144	460.16291249254	64.620820375136	0.55024230892519	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-22 23:56:21	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	58.11	37.13	47.62	134.25065660248	0.007	0.127	2.17	2.297	F	F	26.11	252.11	144	457.98389062684	61.484638030012	0.74200889482655	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	57.79	36.8	47.295	134.34068533333	0.0056	0.1256	2.17	2.2956	F	F	25.79	251.79	144	458.01588200209	61.530167481712	0.73298658110102	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	58.36	37	47.68	134.23550666667	0.0091	0.1391	2.17	2.3091	F	F	26.36	253.36	144	457.97850643425	61.476976853645	0.74894607062542	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	58.55	36.55	47.55	133.81943866667	0.0064	0.1264	2.17	2.2964	F	F	26.55	254.55	144	457.83055745664	61.266628203295	0.75415166089765	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	58.93	36.91	47.92	133.97882244875	0.0074	0.1674	2.17	2.3374	F	F	26.93	248.93	144	457.88725096578	61.347194698688	0.76438689605395	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 03:59:14	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	58.39	37.38	47.885	134.0939985809	0.0043	0.2143	2.17	2.3843	F	F	26.39	248.39	144	457.92820533723	61.405424116647	0.74977185883016	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	54.83	37.12	45.975	134.56943582984	0.0075	0.3275	2.17	2.4975	F	F	22.83	250.83	144	458.09713474089	61.645872977348	0.64276097196545	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	54.51	37.25	45.88	133.79704721928	0.0398	0.4198	2.52	2.9398	F	F	22.51	257.51	144	457.82259088191	61.255310810281	0.63238313739019	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	55.26	37.42	46.34	133.79363052411	0.0427	0.4327	2.52	2.9527	F	F	23.26	259.26	144	457.82137522804	61.253583923299	0.65654042091043	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	54.62	38.65	46.635	134.14997681068	0.0363	0.4363	2.52	2.9563	F	F	22.62	258.62	144	457.94810577057	61.433727769615	0.6359618757683	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 08:01:59	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	54.62	37.98	46.3	134.91759445666	0.0169	0.4269	2.59	3.0169	F	F	22.62	253.62	144	458.22071096912	61.822036054176	0.6359618757683	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	57.36	38.27	47.815	135.23177757445	0.0457	0.4757	2.64	3.1157	F	F	25.36	250.36	144	458.33213408526	61.981069211842	0.72061729573055	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	51.66	36.77	44.215	135.88079023125	0.1068	0.5468	2.3	2.8468	F	F	19.66	242.66	144	458.56202108086	62.309769794506	0.5365230865284	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	51.69	36.48	44.085	136.4035060316	0.1004	0.4604	2.47	2.9304	F	F	19.69	260.69	144	458.74689709838	62.574685145338	0.53755374238908	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 15:56:22	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	52.6	36.62	44.61	136.11366219286	0.0653	0.3253	2.5	2.8253	F	F	20.6	262.6	144	458.64441439838	62.427770888063	0.5686654453518	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	49.83	37.71	43.77	135.50344606708	0.0683	0.3183	2.59	2.9083	F	F	17.83	261.83	144	458.42840799217	62.118629057986	0.47345153441114	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 08:01:58	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	49.87	37.74	43.805	135.71146968509	0.0683	0.3083	2.65	2.9583	F	F	17.87	257.87	144	458.50208252473	62.223991473104	0.47482879374399	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	49.37	37.62	43.495	135.77867791024	0.0749	0.3149	2.63	2.9449	F	F	17.37	259.37	144	458.52587695774	62.258037360953	0.45763997413111	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	53.1	37.24	45.17	135.45687375704	0.1222	0.3822	2.59	2.9722	F	F	21.1	259.1	144	458.41190841015	62.095044006236	0.58559262177834	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	41.29	37.1	39.195	137.10046664185	0.3864	0.6764	2.63	3.3064	F	F	9.29	261.29	144	458.99301912971	62.928157108034	0.21033240238324	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	45.62	37.39	41.505	136.94367659213	0.4417	0.7217	2.57	3.2917	F	F	13.62	261.62	144	458.9376888625	62.848614439524	0.33333719410099	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	46.41	38.23	42.32	136.03590439035	0.2977	0.5977	2.61	3.2077	F	F	14.41	271.41	144	458.61690803301	62.388365852975	0.35853068333477	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 07:56:25	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	46.45	38.25	42.35	136.31079157029	0.2977	0.5777	2.59	3.1677	F	F	14.45	255.45	144	458.71412341688	62.527685267426	0.35982395824428	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	49.38	36.01	42.695	136.39999913696	0.288	0.658	2.64	3.298	F	F	17.38	265.38	144	458.74565758487	62.572907298659	0.45798308316927	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	50.23	36.54	43.385	137.22124771799	0.3787	0.7087	2.86	3.5687	T	F	18.23	255.23	144	459.03562702363	62.989441487195	0.4872356933078	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	50.26	36.55	43.405	138.42314256339	0.3787	0.6987	3.13	3.8287	T	F	18.26	263.26	144	459.45890754696	63.599745861393	0.48827032565535	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	48.76	36.84	42.8	138.08875393772	0.3201	0.5701	3.17	3.7401	T	F	16.76	266.76	144	459.34127305611	63.429864028483	0.43677956405814	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	45.66	36.5	41.08	137.39418390071	1.07	1.3	3.12	4.42	T	F	13.66	254.66	144	459.09661090226	63.077204186499	0.33459606573771	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	45.7	36.53	41.115	136.77260261565	1.07	1.3	3.4	4.7	T	F	13.7	260.7	144	458.87729274027	62.76184160931	0.33585679833867	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	47.9	36.06	41.98	136.68085266206	0.7361	0.9761	3.29	4.2661	T	F	15.9	266.9	144	458.8448904344	62.715310864205	0.40767892744495	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-17 23:56:20	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	57.71	37.03	47.37	136.22795097918	0.0408	0.4008	3.39	3.7908	T	F	25.71	276.71	144	458.68483352513	62.485695016357	0.73070639243838	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	53.87	36.46	45.165	142.84382521248	0.0163	0.3763	3.29	3.6663	T	F	21.87	247.87	144	461.00470329954	65.851675260251	0.61134202027361	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-17 16:01:53	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	51.91	37.51	44.71	143.76407396861	0.0884	0.5084	3.36	3.8684	T	F	19.91	244.91	144	461.32431304636	66.321862664317	0.545103740504	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	40.05	34	37.025	142.47808047021	0.0149	0.2249	3.3	3.5249	F	F	8.05	235.05	144	460.87746962226	65.664937203747	0.18073658360843	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	36.24	34	35.12	142.72102136438	0.0009	0.2109	3.33	3.5409	F	F	4.24	223.24	144	460.9619960154	65.788966881482	0.10704219844129	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	237	-49	35.55	33.31	34.43	143.11404661893	0	0.11	3.39	3.5	F	F	3.55	221.55	144	461.0986308423	65.989690950288	0.096425726775508	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L