Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 22, 2020

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DAY 235 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/23/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.50°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.95°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.052 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 224 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.64 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.96 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.49 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 143 in SWE DAY: 142 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.99 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 65.75 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-23 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	235	-51	32.39996	27.5	29.94998	142.93606583333	0.64000000000004	0.96000000000004	2.49	3.45	T	F	0.39996	224.39996	142	459.9926497345	65.7495396653	0.05183811035889	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-50	41.61	33.17	37.39	136.64401066667	0.0797	0.3997	2.49	2.8897	F	F	9.61	233.61	143	458.30241302217	62.62427981356	0.20612984937603	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-50	36.43	28.79	32.61	136.80907978208	0.1178	0.4378	2.49	2.9278	F	F	4.43	228.43	143	458.36093060931	62.707937124717	0.10138591877197	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-22 03:59:14	FORECAST	2020	235	-50	40.38	28.85	34.615	136.84159991424	0.1755	0.4955	2.49	2.9855	F	F	8.38	232.38	143	458.37245621889	62.724420265612	0.17680172837011	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	40.87	31.22	36.045	137.27969982984	0.2894	0.6094	2.49	3.0994	F	F	8.87	232.87	142	457.99700991698	62.873692044367	0.18815510261841	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.35	30.12	35.735	136.39458855262	0.3472	1.0172	2.49	3.5072	T	F	9.35	241.35	142	457.6821286201	62.425365621024	0.19970166231321	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.5	30.42	35.96	136.43851319077	0.3563	1.0263	2.49	3.5163	T	F	9.5	241.5	142	457.69777165638	62.447603455525	0.20339541997287	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.12	31.89	36.505	136.81869414401	0.3686	1.0386	2.49	3.5286	T	F	9.12	241.12	142	457.83309393895	62.640126048639	0.19411675593268	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 08:01:59	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.11	31.4	36.255	137.61066188024	0.3773	1.1173	2.49	3.6073	T	F	9.11	236.11	142	458.11456905174	63.041449064191	0.19387610735961	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	35.67	30.98	33.325	138.03523952512	0.3967	1.1867	2.49	3.6767	T	F	3.67	229.67	142	458.26523620877	63.256751646114	0.09006900603372	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	40.59	30.34	35.465	138.08591780877	0.4245	0.8745	2.49	3.3645	T	F	8.59	232.59	142	458.2832092354	63.282457563619	0.18161352530034	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.28	30.52	35.9	138.74269346246	0.3393	0.9593	2.49	3.4493	T	F	9.28	245.28	142	458.51592522076	63.615734460559	0.19799178134713	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 15:56:22	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.03	30.49	35.76	138.54643707292	0.2414	0.8914	2.49	3.3814	T	F	9.03	246.03	142	458.44642616106	63.516118933428	0.19195745757819	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.58	30.64	36.11	137.8081309473	0.2285	0.9685	2.49	3.4585	T	F	9.58	250.58	142	458.18466385004	63.141572153888	0.20538194691906	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 08:01:58	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	36.98	30.6	33.79	138.01550255035	0.2332	1.0332	2.49	3.5232	T	F	4.98	246.98	142	458.25823587507	63.246740722136	0.11019678532744	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.8	30.72	36.26	138.20834994805	0.2336	1.0136	2.49	3.5036	T	F	9.8	245.8	142	458.32662018436	63.344565912945	0.21090386156842	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.21	30.92	36.565	138.02626175704	0.2513	1.0613	2.42	3.4813	T	F	10.21	242.21	142	458.26205200681	63.252197943608	0.22142340313336	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.11	30.65	36.38	139.09519107497	0.2868	1.0868	2.47	3.5568	T	F	10.11	256.11	142	458.64066605554	63.794711079745	0.21883041236704	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.54	30.74	36.14	139.01265955628	0.271	1.011	2.47	3.481	T	F	9.54	252.54	142	458.61147005329	63.752800155122	0.20438724965444	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	40.9	29.66	35.28	138.16425466935	0.2896	1.0696	2.47	3.5396	T	F	8.9	261.9	142	458.3109868101	63.322195899393	0.18886448928916	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-19 07:56:25	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	40.93	30.89	35.91	138.44831449879	0.2684	1.0184	2.48	3.4984	T	F	8.93	245.93	142	458.41166562869	63.466322452874	0.18957551791364	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	40.9	30.22	35.56	138.41823270248	0.3514	1.1314	2.5	3.6314	T	F	8.9	253.9	142	458.40100722997	63.451057289809	0.18886448928916	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.76	29.25	35.505	139.35663705133	0.2963	1.3163	2.48	3.7963	T	F	9.76	244.76	142	458.7331136892	63.927504027811	0.20989346448331	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.79	29.18	35.485	140.56613056339	0.2891	1.2491	2.81	4.0591	T	F	9.79	252.79	142	459.15999411396	64.542343682108	0.21065099580268	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.56	30.31	36.435	140.27744327105	0.2338	1.2238	2.82	4.0438	T	F	10.56	256.56	142	459.05822351541	64.395513907293	0.23063570872919	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.44	31.31	36.875	139.52235723405	0.2343	1.1443	2.85	3.9943	T	F	10.44	245.44	142	458.79168077707	64.011696781388	0.22745335460034	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.47	31.34	36.905	138.90875728231	0.2343	1.2043	3.07	4.2743	T	F	10.47	251.47	142	458.57470531889	63.70004243695	0.22824662039134	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.56	31.35	36.955	138.86380512303	0.2358	1.0558	3.11	4.1658	T	F	10.56	254.56	142	458.55879645967	63.677219349026	0.23063570872919	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 23:56:20	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	43.14	31.07	37.105	138.94072964585	0.2999	1.1999	3.13	4.3299	T	F	11.14	258.14	142	458.58601943926	63.716276146277	0.24636200978832	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	39.28	26.94	33.11	144.86441454581	0.2999	1.2299	3	4.2299	T	F	7.28	236.28	142	460.66646919338	66.734178360586	0.15292706058295	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 16:01:53	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	32.39	27.31	29.85	145.4104235171	0.3562	1.3262	3.03	4.3562	T	F	0.39	234.39	142	460.85666135469	67.013362308261	0.051745336102246	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	39.03	28.34	33.685	143.18229023902	0.1626	1.0426	3.06	4.1026	T	F	7.03	239.03	142	460.07887140435	65.875146498257	0.14781320405261	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	39.03	28.34	33.685	143.29721833452	0.1626	1.0426	3.09	4.1326	T	F	7.03	231.03	142	460.11909791303	65.933786833526	0.14781320405261	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	41.01	28.77	34.89	143.75814416222	0.0973	1.0073	3.12	4.1273	T	F	9.01	229.01	142	460.28031073642	66.169043265877	0.19147961313369	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 23:56:32	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.44	29.17	35.805	142.44560163503	0.0857	0.7157	3.19	3.9057	T	F	10.44	248.44	142	459.82074058663	65.499442037127	0.22745335460034	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-16 19:56:40	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.44	29.17	35.805	143.37247795851	0.0857	0.7157	3.1	3.8157	T	F	10.44	248.44	142	460.14543351656	65.972191024564	0.22745335460034	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	42.02	30.44	36.23	141.66059169681	0.1522	0.6322	3.05	3.6822	T	F	10.02	249.02	142	459.54514619975	65.099437322054	0.2165117038322	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	37.14	27.89	32.515	143.09466076117	0.4552	1.1052	2.8	3.9052	T	F	5.14	250.14	142	460.0481919186	65.830439956382	0.11285982337585	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	37.14	27.89	32.515	142.9470816396	0.4552	1.1052	3.17	4.2752	T	F	5.14	249.14	142	459.99650834858	65.755158432834	0.11285982337585	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 03:59:18	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	36.86	28.1	32.48	143.95109611659	0.3878	1.0778	3.06	4.1378	T	F	4.86	239.86	142	460.3477413408	66.267561960806	0.1082292043793	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	39.42	29.78	34.6	144.76916926761	0.3377	1.1877	3.02	4.2077	T	F	7.42	259.42	142	460.63326522876	66.685495144196	0.15584132513376	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	39.42	29.78	34.6	145.8766935727	0.2945	1.1445	3.13	4.2745	T	F	7.42	264.42	142	461.01886926325	67.251908322748	0.15584132513376	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	40.21	27.5	33.855	141.89302193351	0.1543	0.5143	3.34	3.8543	T	F	8.21	261.21	142	459.62680303599	65.217836044414	0.17296592115218	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	34.84	30.05	32.445	139.99938811695	0.0707	0.4007	3.07	3.4707	F	F	2.84	263.84	142	458.96013047414	64.254137436454	0.078809241830788	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-15 07:56:28	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	30.79	30.06	30.425	140.12508895777	0.0645	0.3945	3.39	3.7845	T	F	-1.21	257.79	142	459.00448413353	64.318044171226	0.038469885491933	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	235	-51	31.68	30.43	31.055	140.78194942572	0.0388	0.3788	4.07	4.4488	T	F	-0.32	249.68	142	459.23602775598	64.652143234008	0.045463946580545	89	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L