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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 21, 2020

[ Wednesday, May 20, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, May 22, 2020 ]

DAY 234 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/22/2020 12:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.033
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 228

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 141
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020234-5131.0931.0931.09137.031909097540.00870.38872.432.8187FF-0.91228.09142457.908928873862.7481347163890.033309989512731921122124DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020234-5138.8331.3135.07136.528839536860.35910.73912.433.1691FF6.83235.83142457.729934412462.493336766610.1515307802509921123126DRYL
2020-05-21 08:01:59FORECAST2020234-5133.531.8232.66137.169494699190.42530.80532.433.2353FF1.5230.5142457.9578426460262.8178458692870.0566603225687921123126DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020234-5133.1930.8732.03137.413380145770.48310.86312.433.2931FF1.19230.19142458.044505633862.941443776340.053081509907095921123126DRYL
2020-05-21 00:00:02FORECAST2020234-5234.1629.4831.82137.450600938170.44480.52482.432.9548FF2.16228.16141457.5253154824162.8871295574850.064908843057223921123126DRYL
2020-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020234-5234.1228.8531.485138.419355272430.4540.6942.433.124FF2.12240.12141457.8703018688663.378111983080.0643838430308921123126DRYL
2020-05-20 15:56:22FORECAST2020234-5234.5630.4832.52138.384133798230.47880.71882.433.1488FF2.56240.56141457.8577738953863.3602514432980.070342568561507921123126DRYL
2020-05-20 12:00:01FORECAST2020234-5238.5330.5534.54137.608362101480.57360.81362.433.2436FF6.53244.53141457.5815542246162.9670482046980.14434141079613921123126DRYL
2020-05-20 08:01:58FORECAST2020234-5238.7729.3934.08137.658660097050.59990.86992.433.2999FF6.77245.77141457.5994797304162.9925312407960.15007423856538921123126DRYL
2020-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2020234-5234.3830.6732.525137.992860337040.56820.84822.433.2782FF2.38240.38141457.7185259035463.1618886186830.067855746994898921123126DRYL
2020-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.3630.9832.67137.852810239360.58450.81452.433.2445FF2.36236.36141457.6686506630663.0909096523590.067583663771317921123126DRYL
2020-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.0631.0332.545138.756701049580.55330.85332.433.2833FF2.06250.06141457.9902360836563.5492142718870.063602516255886921123126DRYL
2020-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.2131.2332.72138.63553941670.51560.78562.433.2156FF2.21247.21141457.9471721510763.4877532355140.065569743472343921123126DRYL
2020-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2020234-5239.6329.8534.74137.3931780230.52550.82552.433.2555FF7.63256.63141457.5048397512662.858043894330.17184439079514921123126DRYL
2020-05-19 07:56:25FORECAST2020234-5234.4430.9132.675137.900976043860.53880.80882.433.2388FF2.44241.44141457.6858056772863.1153193243180.068677056055059921123126DRYL
2020-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.9831.0132.995137.751223207770.53460.86462.433.2946FF2.98248.98141457.6324619506163.0394314132810.076416190817951921123126DRYL
2020-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.2530.9932.62138.855785158430.59661.07662.433.5066TF2.25239.25141458.0254432521763.5994825453180.066102198218289921124128DRYL
2020-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2020234-5234.2731.1432.705140.093017192250.60891.07892.73.7789TF2.27247.27141458.4643187896864.2276496942360.066369674361667921124128DRYL
2020-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.0531.1632.605139.980158500870.59831.11832.73.8183TF2.05250.05141458.4243422776864.1703120926870.063473013001995921124128DRYL
2020-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2020234-5234.0231.3332.675139.250208511410.47851.06852.73.7685TF2.02239.02141458.1655043522263.799642013780.063085730227785921124128DRYL
2020-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2020234-5238.2331.3834.805138.630508554160.49631.17632.874.0463TF6.23245.23141457.9453837677163.4852014417470.13738493785137921124128WETL
2020-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2020234-5235.6730.4333.05138.631755528010.41241.04242.93.9424TF3.67247.67141457.9458270471663.4858339402740.087245554380997921124128DRYL
2020-05-17 23:56:20FORECAST2020234-5237.9231.5834.75138.843104076630.39911.13912.94.0391TF5.92250.92141458.0209378274563.5930487400520.13044014240394921124128WETL
2020-05-17 20:00:01FORECAST2020234-5230.3826.0828.23144.097759491460.5191.2092.733.939TF-1.62233.38141459.8754755319266.2670256692170.028184183301411921124128DRYL
2020-05-17 16:01:53FORECAST2020234-5234.8525.9130.38143.764966824990.55691.26692.744.0069TF2.85237.85141459.758754991566.0972021588510.074495205234592921124128WETL
2020-05-17 12:00:03FORECAST2020234-5234.1426.8130.475142.731870971920.52731.16732.783.9473TF2.14236.14141459.3957875807265.5704202780140.064645930522857921124128DRYL
2020-05-17 08:00:02FORECAST2020234-5234.1426.8130.475142.832336211780.52731.28732.693.9773TF2.14228.14141459.4311268132365.6216211711430.064645930522857921124128DRYL
2020-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2020234-5229.8726.5728.22143.699576071220.56271.33272.714.0427TF-2.13223.87141459.7358088592166.063840837830.024921350831514921124128WETL
2020-05-16 23:56:32FORECAST2020234-5232.9228.6930.805142.421046024590.39570.90572.923.8257TF0.92241.92141459.2863959704265.4120489389730.050112202715094921123126DRYL
2020-05-16 19:56:40FORECAST2020234-5232.9228.6930.805143.339137074090.39570.79572.943.7357TF0.92241.92141459.6092595424165.8799946540680.050112202715094921123126DRYL
2020-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2020234-5239.2730.334.785141.421530500760.27850.61852.923.5385TF7.27243.27141458.9340409049764.9031544636810.16249766931078921123126DRYL
2020-05-16 12:00:02FORECAST2020234-5238.2728.3933.33140.808554603890.43440.75442.713.4644TF6.27249.27141458.7175081125364.5913492888220.13829904463209921123126DRYL
2020-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2020234-5238.2728.3933.33140.568339070890.43440.81443.023.8344TF6.27248.27141458.632560356864.4692172531850.13829904463209921123126DRYL
2020-05-16 03:59:18FORECAST2020234-5234.328.0731.185141.89009113260.47610.83612.923.7561TF2.3239.3141459.0993320284465.1416460604290.066772453582596921123126DRYL
2020-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2020234-5233.7626.9530.355143.088484599340.73080.93082.953.8808TF1.76255.76141459.5211877021265.7521903895870.059805681129974921123126DRYL
2020-05-15 20:00:02FORECAST2020234-5233.7626.9530.355144.425826030840.73080.94083.053.9908TF1.76260.76141459.990441944566.4344995441270.059805681129974921123126DRYL
2020-05-15 16:00:02FORECAST2020234-5237.0226.3931.705141.191199349070.24690.50693.23.7069TF5.02257.02141458.8527163170964.785965341390.11166379521646921123126DRYL
2020-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2020234-5238.5229.6934.105139.548364990690.22070.45072.963.4107FF6.52264.52141458.2712876643463.9510089157360.14410578080144921122124DRYL
2020-05-15 07:56:28FORECAST2020234-5238.5629.6934.125139.655868222560.22070.45073.283.7307TF6.56262.56141458.3094092255164.0055984599590.14504985377878921122124DRYL
2020-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2020234-5240.6430.2935.465140.500606404690.22140.70143.724.4214TF8.64253.64141458.6085985899564.4347862042950.19985155418027921123126WETL
2020-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020234-5239.2330.3434.785140.680234846410.25550.56553.694.2555TF7.23258.23141458.6721366653764.5261039035890.16147990413357921123126WETL
2020-05-14 20:00:04FORECAST2020234-5239.2331.2935.26140.337686898560.18230.49233.764.2523TF7.23267.23141458.5509457146864.3519790467460.16147990413357921123126WETL
2020-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2020234-5235.9829.6732.825140.307413230140.12570.41573.644.0557TF3.98259.98141458.5402300407564.3365935389730.092467025062414921122124WETL
2020-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2020234-5238.4835.9737.225139.068242928020.08640.30643.343.6464TF6.48256.48141458.1009051774363.7072879667590.14316584831685921122124DRYL
2020-05-14 08:00:05FORECAST2020234-5238.4836.0637.27139.300498686740.0690.2893.343.629TF6.48256.48141458.1833524838763.8251694909640.14316584831685921122124DRYL
2020-05-14 04:00:06FORECAST2020234-5235.2134.734.955140.068300767580.03090.31093.673.9809TF3.21262.21141458.4555647820664.2150919364640.079906525220477921122124DRYL