Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 16, 2020

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DAY 229 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/17/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.28°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.79°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.54°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.261 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 238 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.54 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.36 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.05 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 142 in SWE DAY: 136 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.49 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 64.84 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -57 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-17 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	229	-57	43.28006	37.79006	40.53506	142.03547708333	0.54000000000002	0.69000000000002	3.36	4.05	T	F	11.28006	238.28006	136	456.48913627897	64.837652254742	0.26065089673437	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-56	47.6	38.84	43.22	143.25926666667	0.5576	0.7076	3.36	4.0676	T	F	15.6	242.6	137	457.46269594749	65.535770348794	0.4042698475357	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-56	47.26	39.43	43.345	143.057	0.6225	0.7725	3.36	4.1325	T	F	15.26	242.26	137	457.39052671552	65.432916580341	0.39215201235843	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-16 03:59:18	FORECAST	2020	229	-56	41.88	39.12	40.5	143.064052	0.6005	0.7505	3.36	4.1105	T	F	9.88	236.88	137	457.3930435099	65.436502161139	0.2204471172557	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.71	39.55	43.13	142.63245866667	0.4639	0.6139	3.36	3.9739	T	F	14.71	241.71	136	456.70339978105	65.140728792196	0.37277388082627	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.84	39.49	43.165	143.76568133333	0.4785	0.6685	3.36	4.0285	T	F	14.84	251.84	136	457.1092336847	65.716620424438	0.37732724312304	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	47.57	38.74	43.155	143.80711866667	0.6328	0.8228	3.36	4.1828	T	F	15.57	252.57	136	457.12405124944	65.737692683416	0.40319674001375	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	47.61	38.92	43.265	142.89959733333	0.4813	0.6713	3.36	4.0313	T	F	15.61	252.61	136	456.79917372618	65.276417987671	0.40462771055904	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 07:56:28	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	49.13	38.51	43.82	143.0513956374	0.5598	0.7598	3.36	4.1198	T	F	17.13	248.13	136	456.8535671593	65.353540384061	0.45977838185651	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	49.46	38.59	44.025	142.50739416667	0.5996	0.8096	3.36	4.1696	T	F	17.46	255.46	136	456.65853960339	65.077218502834	0.47189320376915	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.87	39.29	43.08	143.83875088551	0.4214	0.4914	3.36	3.8514	T	F	14.87	243.87	136	457.13536155634	65.753779391859	0.37838047073634	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	47.79	38.99	43.39	143.96813256887	0.4298	0.7698	3.36	4.1298	T	F	15.79	251.79	136	457.18161336541	65.819583121043	0.41108260794051	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	47.12	39.23	43.175	143.8074516895	0.4077	0.7477	3.36	4.1077	T	F	15.12	251.12	136	457.12417032867	65.737862040644	0.38719182528001	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	48.91	39.95	44.43	143.16682159468	0.5288	0.8388	3.36	4.1988	T	F	16.91	252.91	136	456.89491336364	65.41219254905	0.45172183237867	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	49.36	40.02	44.69	143.29138402007	0.5358	0.8258	3.36	4.1858	T	F	17.36	252.36	136	456.93951870334	65.475496048467	0.46821877938024	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	50.43	39.92	45.175	143.76600876758	0.4353	0.9353	3.36	4.2953	T	F	18.43	252.43	136	457.10935077793	65.716786931682	0.50761222368069	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-13 23:56:50	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	50.17	41.53	45.85	146.44008696717	0.3354	0.9454	3.14	4.0854	T	F	18.17	255.17	136	458.06238296387	67.078695197619	0.49803215617821	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	49.58	40.82	45.2	146.102448	0.3033	0.9533	3.14	4.0933	T	F	17.58	254.58	136	457.94240636846	66.906506613443	0.47630564537224	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	48.49	40.86	44.675	146.094904	0.4515	1.0815	3.14	4.2215	T	F	16.49	253.49	136	457.93972450895	66.902660089922	0.43639896673146	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	43.28	39.5	41.39	146.072436	0.1615	0.7215	3.14	3.8615	T	F	11.28	248.28	136	457.93173692726	66.891204334676	0.26064909655964	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	43.34	39.68	41.51	146.14539470727	0.1675	0.6775	3.29	3.9675	T	F	11.34	244.34	136	457.95767275901	66.92840484459	0.26245245792479	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-13 03:56:45	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	47.14	38.94	43.04	145.99984390026	0.1721	0.7521	3.48	4.2321	T	F	15.14	254.14	136	457.90592664894	66.854193811752	0.38789931793615	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 23:59:21	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.32	38.16	42.24	145.81112933333	0.4104	1.0304	3.44	4.4704	T	F	14.32	255.32	136	457.83880650456	66.757993429056	0.35922232042385	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.32	38.16	42.24	146.07994891627	0.4104	0.9904	3.46	4.4504	T	F	14.32	255.32	136	457.93440788917	66.895034911453	0.35922232042385	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	47.37	38.54	42.955	145.79467466667	0.438	0.948	3.43	4.378	T	F	15.37	256.37	136	457.83295254519	66.749606368006	0.39606167522023	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	49.81	41.43	45.62	145.06279733333	0.1849	0.7449	3.5	4.2449	T	F	17.81	259.81	136	457.57233015701	66.376722194908	0.48477048954148	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	49.81	41.43	45.62	144.89759466667	0.1849	0.7949	3.66	4.4549	T	F	17.81	259.81	136	457.51343423771	66.29259614873	0.48477048954148	93	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	51.51	40.27	45.89	144.75224283333	0.2037	0.7237	3.61	4.3337	T	F	19.51	262.51	136	457.46159483935	66.218591863109	0.54729741743457	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	52.33	39.99	46.16	146.41871466667	0.4108	0.9108	3.63	4.5408	T	F	20.33	257.33	136	458.05479158282	67.067793830464	0.57713729210487	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	52.33	39.99	46.16	147.74644133333	0.4108	0.9108	3.99	4.9008	T	F	20.33	272.33	136	458.52561480796	67.745527848055	0.57713729210487	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	50.31	39.14	44.725	147.76202133333	0.3799	0.8199	4.1	4.9199	T	F	18.31	269.31	136	458.53113018925	67.753486641021	0.50319086511451	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	48.29	37.99	43.14	146.62025333333	0.8837	1.4037	3.98	5.3837	T	F	16.29	264.29	136	458.12636117351	67.170603133938	0.42913433178903	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.7	38.11	42.405	146.80584666667	0.7898	1.4398	3.93	5.3698	T	F	14.7	254.7	136	458.19223592646	67.265299131276	0.37242434791083	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	46.75	38.67	42.71	146.96595033333	0.8256	1.5656	3.83	5.3956	T	F	14.75	247.75	136	458.24903839817	67.347005417523	0.3741730572619	93	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	51.05	37.97	44.51	148.96500951503	0.2683	0.6883	3.82	4.5083	T	F	19.05	247.05	136	458.95633435595	68.368434714319	0.53042901785603	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	51.05	37.97	44.51	151.01835927155	0.2683	0.6883	4.03	4.7183	T	F	19.05	263.05	136	459.67910974974	69.419984945814	0.53042901785603	93	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-05-10 15:56:45	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	54.66	38.24	46.45	151.10625576131	0.1683	0.3783	4.16	4.5383	T	F	22.66	268.66	136	459.70996509817	69.465051562146	0.65901904851635	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	44.91	36.83	40.87	149.71908299333	1.0164	1.2964	4.08	5.3764	T	F	12.91	256.91	136	459.22220493993	68.754327413781	0.31179217954356	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	44.91	36.83	40.87	149.2739781716	1.0164	1.2964	4.02	5.3164	T	F	12.91	256.91	136	459.0653318446	68.526508325108	0.31179217954356	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	42.11	39.52	40.815	146.60984441667	1.0751	1.3751	3.83	5.2051	T	F	10.11	282.11	136	458.12266569858	67.165292741817	0.2267977692666	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	50.9	38.42	44.66	148.13603866667	1.2909	2.2009	3.97	6.1709	T	T	18.9	277.9	136	458.66346830593	67.944589275955	0.52491513105949	93	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-05-09 19:59:23	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	50.94	38.48	44.71	150.55855733333	1.2294	2.1394	4.05	6.1894	T	T	18.94	290.94	136	459.51758769511	69.184305072669	0.52638601139397	93	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-05-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	51.03	38.64	44.835	151.14420133333	1.0465	1.9965	3.72	5.7165	T	F	19.03	284.03	136	459.72328345414	69.484508512014	0.52969414679163	93	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-05-09 11:57:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	38.74	34.85	36.795	149.38333333333	0.2538	0.8038	3.49	4.2938	T	F	6.74	277.74	136	459.1038894999	68.582469359794	0.14437342711825	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	36.51	34.89	35.7	149.10513466667	0.0225	0.4825	3.72	4.2025	T	F	4.51	266.51	136	459.0057780921	68.440118355201	0.10255805161401	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	229	-57	34.39	34.15	34.27	148.90733425	0.0004	0.6404	3.55	4.1904	T	F	2.39	278.39	136	458.93597828859	68.33893311837	0.071688139759961	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L