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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 15, 2020

[ Thursday, May 14, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 16, 2020 ]

DAY 228 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/16/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.155
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 245

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 135
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2020228-5738.9938.9938.99143.9617880.00050.46053.053.5105TF6.99244.99136457.1793456414965.8163560352190.15500589104082911122124DRYL
2020-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2020228-5748.6837.3343.005144.222093333330.04390.50393.053.5539TF16.68254.68136457.2723559456165.9487763979410.43752041556992912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-15 07:56:28FORECAST2020228-5743.1633.7538.455144.28861163740.04910.50913.053.5591TF11.16249.16136457.2961138919965.9826213806510.25916785619174912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-15 04:00:04FORECAST2020228-5750.4336.0543.24143.779050166670.05780.51783.053.5678TF18.43256.43136457.1140144125865.7234188101130.49906339548114913123129DRYL
2020-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2020228-5848.2733.8741.07145.052241552180.05960.37963.053.4296FF16.27247.27135457.0342937650866.293848776840.42326319701458912122125DRYL
2020-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2020228-5847.8333.1340.48145.223716568870.08930.64933.053.6993TF15.83253.83135457.0956339771566.3811267935670.40807424745403912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-14 16:00:02FORECAST2020228-5847.8233.8740.845145.057405022840.09030.65033.053.7003TF15.82253.82135457.0361412370666.2964766494970.40773055278407912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-14 12:00:03FORECAST2020228-5848.2334.4741.35144.633090928020.06270.62273.053.6727TF16.23254.23135456.8842422739866.080580156390.4218773010089912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-14 08:00:05FORECAST2020228-5848.6234.6241.62144.78372935340.03640.59643.053.6464TF16.62252.62135456.938187627966.1572148887540.43542845909453912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-14 04:00:06FORECAST2020228-5849.1133.7841.445145.328054100910.01590.80593.053.8559TF17.11252.11135457.1329446302766.4342413085380.45256044140024912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-13 23:56:50FORECAST2020228-5849.2433.5441.39148.001366967170.02920.69923.053.7492TF17.24255.24135458.0855453144567.7972868944410.45712187398525912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2020228-5849.0733.2741.17147.595886666670.04090.74093.053.7909TF17.07255.07135457.9414734378967.5902778135060.45115815387243912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-13 16:00:03FORECAST2020228-584933.8941.445147.507490666670.0420.7223.053.772TF17255135457.910045604167.545161778120.44870562710507912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020228-5848.9733.6741.32147.2981720.03620.64623.053.6962TF16.97254.97135457.8355974380267.4383465791490.44765513833956912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-13 08:00:03FORECAST2020228-5847.8133.5840.695147.405461373940.02650.74653.053.7965TF15.81250.81135457.8737618896367.4930931223630.40738692909812912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-13 03:56:45FORECAST2020228-5848.7733.5241.145147.25766923360.04341.01343.054.0634TF16.77256.77135457.8211872875267.4176809657190.440661609489359121241210WETL
2020-05-12 23:59:21FORECAST2020228-5849.6133.3641.485147.044409333330.0571.0073.054.057TF17.61258.61135457.7452888212267.3088856198320.470133352438369121241210WETL
2020-05-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020228-5850.0933.1741.63147.290542249610.03770.98773.054.0377TF18.09259.09135457.8328830243967.4344536003620.48705869124856912123127.5WETL
2020-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2020228-5851.0133.0142.01147.083605333330.0460.8863.053.936TF19.01259.01135457.7592416269667.3288796331460.51953806253326913123129DRYL
2020-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020228-5848.5334.2541.39146.624077333330.03671.00673.054.0567TF16.53259.53135457.5955736787167.0945287824580.432293927302339121241210WETL
2020-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020228-5848.5334.1641.345146.458874666670.0261.0963.174.266TF16.53259.53135457.5366875147767.0103083721270.432293927302339121241210WETL
2020-05-12 04:00:05FORECAST2020228-5850.7333.8542.29146.32095750.02130.99133.144.1313TF18.73260.73135457.4875082849766.9400102565470.509656840096249131241212WETL
2020-05-12 00:00:04FORECAST2020228-5851.8431.941.87147.976714666670.02051.03053.14.1305TF19.84254.84135458.0767903005467.7846984937260.54873517153359131241212WETL
2020-05-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020228-5851.8431.2541.545149.304441333330.01031.05033.444.4903TF19.84269.84135458.547539461668.4631842040880.54873517153359131241212WETL
2020-05-11 16:00:04FORECAST2020228-5850.8332.2741.55149.248189333330.01280.90283.644.5428TF18.83268.83135458.527627348468.4344181410580.51318684400005913123129WETL
2020-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2020228-5849.4634.4941.975147.92460.03711.05713.444.4971TF17.46266.46135458.0582805019867.7580879199430.464853791569679121241210WETL
2020-05-11 08:00:04FORECAST2020228-5848.9733.0240.995147.967021333330.03891.18893.394.5789TF16.97257.97135458.073347661667.7797488056750.447655138339569121241210WETL
2020-05-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020228-5849.0333.4841.255148.1287650.05481.30483.274.5748TF17.03251.03135458.1307806948567.8623467528140.449756475591239121241210WETL
2020-05-11 00:00:03FORECAST2020228-5850.3332.9941.66150.350973515030.14620.99623.244.2362TF18.33246.33135458.9174731262368.9986888475880.495532025122439121241210WETL
2020-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2020228-5850.3332.9941.66152.404323271550.14621.08623.364.4462TF18.33262.33135459.6404506734670.051191833120.495532025122439121241210WETL
2020-05-10 15:56:45FORECAST2020228-5851.4133.3242.365152.707934427970.00560.90563.464.3656TF19.41264.41135459.7470315118970.2070195415730.53363179574647913123129WETL
2020-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2020228-5849.9332.1341.03150.724621659990.01261.05263.314.3626TF17.93261.93135459.0493141842869.1900342037060.48141280984339121241210WETL
2020-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2020228-5849.9332.1341.03150.279516838270.01260.94263.364.3026TF17.93261.93135458.8922455139668.9621049366650.4814128098433912123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 04:00:02FORECAST2020228-5852.6433.8143.225147.782389750.03730.88733.244.1273TF20.64289.64135458.0077585861567.6854810879030.57663131527451913123129WETL
2020-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020228-5847.9732.9740.47149.571749333330.44521.44523.434.8752TF15.97276.97135458.6421224187468.5999045681230.412893283309779121241210WETL
2020-05-09 19:59:23FORECAST2020228-584833.0240.51151.814305333330.44521.48523.474.9552TF16290135459.4330932744969.7485159026120.413927670107619121241210WETL
2020-05-09 16:00:04FORECAST2020228-5847.7231.7739.745152.1654840.46851.24853.424.6685TF15.72282.72135459.5565498292269.9286448301330.404297552123219121241210WETL
2020-05-09 11:57:02FORECAST2020228-5846.2733.5939.93149.6771120.14421.01423.034.0442TF14.27289.27135458.6793857888868.6538057988130.355469628773179121241210WETL
2020-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2020228-5846.2933.6639.975149.270829333330.14421.01423.174.1842TF14.29280.29135458.5356418098768.4459955318520.356129275377699121241210WETL
2020-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2020228-5847.2533.6440.445148.956479583330.18331.11333.084.1933TF15.25294.25135458.4243221303468.2852731799120.38826506967059121241210WETL
2020-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020228-5847.8134.8441.325149.796158666670.17461.02463.214.2346TF15.81280.81135458.7214767499968.7147151150490.407386929098129121241210WETL
2020-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2020228-5847.8434.9141.375152.132085333330.17041.02043.124.1404TF15.84289.84135459.5448132949969.9115107506840.408418012853439121241210WETL
2020-05-08 15:56:59FORECAST2020228-5845.3933.3439.365151.994598666670.12850.94853.14.0485TF13.39293.39135459.4964889943469.8409844334370.32689793780344912123127.5WETL
2020-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2020228-5845.6938.3442.015149.965426666670.07180.90182.993.8918TF13.69294.69135458.7813024028268.8013337615280.33653510296666912123127.5DRYL
2020-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020228-5839.2838.3838.83149.9317520.04290.87292.943.8129TF7.28286.28135458.7694025634668.7841002903320.16120760435297911123126DRYL
2020-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2020228-5840.2239.2939.755150.246075083330.01140.87143.063.9314TF8.22292.22135458.8804374077968.9449846530430.18240295085979911123126DRYL