Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 14, 2020

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DAY 227 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/15/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.85°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.45°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.15°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.215 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 246 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.15 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.94 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 145 in SWE DAY: 134 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.39 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 66.06 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -59 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-15 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	227	-59	40.85006	31.44992	36.14999	144.7536475	0.14999999999998	0.93999999999998	3.26	4.2	T	F	8.85006	245.85006	134	456.39070168991	66.064218754698	0.21458048499274	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-58	34.13	34.13	34.13	146.01203964129	0.0072	0.7972	3.26	4.0572	T	F	2.13	239.13	135	457.3772901965	66.782591027196	0.081383953871494	93	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-58	41.07	33.88	37.475	145.68930559468	0.2546	1.0446	3.26	4.3046	T	F	9.07	246.07	135	457.26205025385	66.618190576285	0.22040186440106	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-58	38.95	33.82	36.385	145.85459468674	0.2503	1.0403	3.26	4.3003	T	F	6.95	243.95	135	457.32108249542	66.70238112907	0.16811630771585	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-14 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	227	-58	37.6	32.67	35.135	146.39053747248	0.4772	1.2672	3.26	4.5272	T	F	5.6	242.6	135	457.5123216314	66.975474663903	0.13936462040626	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 23:56:49	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.04	32.74	36.39	149.04596238037	0.5845	1.1545	3.26	4.4145	T	F	8.04	246.04	134	457.92512425126	68.251890842178	0.19392370579916	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.1	31.81	35.955	148.605416	0.61	1.18	3.26	4.44	T	F	8.1	246.1	134	457.76840640581	68.026864465593	0.19541094990087	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	39.96	33.13	36.545	148.55780133333	0.5897	1.1597	3.26	4.4197	T	F	7.96	245.96	134	457.75145769037	68.00255011161	0.19195145488306	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.2	33.7	36.95	148.23187866667	0.5185	1.0885	3.26	4.3485	T	F	8.2	246.2	134	457.6353885834	67.836153394068	0.19790500133444	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.36	33.66	37.01	148.32686804061	0.4755	1.1955	3.26	4.4555	T	F	8.36	243.36	134	457.66922656611	67.884642975118	0.20193516959888	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-13 03:56:45	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.33	33.09	36.71	148.25637456693	0.5414	1.4514	3.26	4.7114	T	F	8.33	248.33	134	457.64411551806	67.848657408597	0.20117580117881	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-12 23:59:21	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	39.97	33.49	36.73	148.035516	0.5568	1.4268	3.26	4.6868	T	F	7.97	248.97	134	457.56541259203	67.735931956815	0.19219731416175	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	39.99	33.25	36.62	148.31215291627	0.5439	1.4339	3.26	4.6939	T	F	7.99	248.99	134	457.66398514446	67.877130949016	0.19268960903834	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	39.84	33.17	36.505	148.13582933333	0.4636	1.3236	3.26	4.5836	T	F	7.84	247.84	134	457.60116470992	67.787128038203	0.18901614632097	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.18	33.04	37.11	147.56472666667	0.5177	1.4477	3.26	4.7077	T	F	9.18	251.18	134	457.39749942815	67.495736981132	0.22334691511048	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.49	33.26	37.375	147.43341733333	0.5833	1.6733	3.26	4.9333	T	F	9.49	251.49	134	457.35063041679	67.428766361901	0.23176577105823	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.44	33.31	37.375	147.40029616667	0.4982	1.5382	3.26	4.7982	T	F	9.44	250.44	134	457.3388058153	67.411875425685	0.23039606910395	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.66	33.2	37.43	149.02910266667	0.476	1.616	3.18	4.796	T	F	9.66	242.66	134	457.91912988464	68.243277020608	0.23645646725577	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.07	32.59	36.83	150.348356	0.4889	1.7489	3.42	5.1689	T	F	9.07	258.07	134	458.38740725327	68.917793091632	0.22040186440106	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.12	32.4	36.76	150.29155733333	0.4276	1.7976	3.42	5.2176	T	F	9.12	258.12	134	458.36727851303	68.888732118366	0.22173776089705	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.6	33.59	37.095	149.001752	0.481	1.731	3.42	5.151	T	F	8.6	256.6	134	457.90940497874	68.22930359911	0.2080715210222	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	36.06	32.5	34.28	148.875636	0.6088	1.8288	3.4	5.2288	T	F	4.06	249.06	134	457.8645539586	68.164876672443	0.11087581710273	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	35.35	32.36	33.855	149.075209	0.6868	1.8168	3.39	5.2068	T	F	3.35	242.35	134	457.9355220966	68.266833665075	0.099246583769965	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.45	32.17	36.31	151.36990551503	0.2655	1.4655	3.31	4.7755	T	F	8.45	236.45	134	458.74893632873	69.440783147203	0.20422352634571	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.45	31.99	36.22	153.42325527155	0.2707	1.6307	3.36	4.9907	T	F	8.45	252.45	134	459.4727905928	70.493811241452	0.20422352634571	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 15:56:45	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.21	33.3	37.255	153.81662909464	0.1998	1.6698	3.38	5.0498	T	F	9.21	253.21	134	459.6110337642	70.695819908312	0.22415397317084	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.02	31.31	36.165	151.72228832666	0.2673	1.7273	3.31	5.0373	T	F	9.02	252.02	134	458.87342809247	69.621326562489	0.21907058454459	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	41.02	31.31	36.165	151.27718350493	0.2673	1.6873	3.29	4.9773	T	F	9.02	252.02	134	458.71616045882	69.393288782406	0.21907058454459	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	45.94	34.28	40.11	148.98811775	0.2603	1.5103	3.27	4.7803	T	F	13.94	276.94	134	457.9045568812	68.222338038878	0.36968289529237	93	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	43.05	34.3	38.675	150.425096	0.4579	1.8179	3.3	5.1179	T	F	11.05	269.05	134	458.41459834192	68.957059963385	0.27669590055694	93	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-09 19:59:23	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	43.08	34.37	38.725	152.67350133333	0.4579	1.9079	3.29	5.1979	T	F	11.08	282.08	134	459.20892210292	70.109033980959	0.27759994086969	93	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.82	32.64	36.73	152.933004	0.4751	1.5951	3.29	4.8851	T	F	8.82	274.82	134	459.30030837116	70.242175897329	0.21379184427757	93	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-09 11:57:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	47.49	33.68	40.585	150.49847866667	0.407	1.377	3.21	4.587	T	F	15.49	283.49	134	458.44059487834	68.994612088232	0.4233787507216	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	47.49	33.36	40.425	150.097772	0.3201	1.5001	3.23	4.7301	T	F	15.49	274.49	134	458.29858154443	68.78959600058	0.4233787507216	93	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	46.34	34.26	40.3	149.72766225	0.4624	1.4724	3.23	4.7024	T	F	14.34	287.34	134	458.1672835098	68.600316279355	0.3833440859655	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	46.17	35.15	40.66	150.68525733333	0.241	1.491	3.26	4.751	T	F	14.17	273.17	134	458.50674121262	69.090206288692	0.37751923362054	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	46.21	35.19	40.7	152.908024	0.241	1.481	3.18	4.661	T	F	14.21	282.21	134	459.29151405262	70.229357853754	0.37888733903916	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 15:56:59	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	47.47	34.63	41.05	152.35999066667	0.2255	1.4255	3.18	4.6055	T	F	15.47	288.47	134	459.09843604177	69.948233430405	0.4226743885692	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	49.24	38.21	43.725	150.491648	0.1288	1.2788	3.23	4.5088	T	F	17.24	289.24	134	458.43817525154	68.991116499718	0.48570887802417	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	49.28	38.25	43.765	150.226296	0.1288	1.2788	3.18	4.4588	T	F	17.28	287.28	134	458.34414712364	68.855343515663	0.48714357285458	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	48.2	35.68	41.94	150.41619775	0.1544	1.4344	3.18	4.6144	T	F	16.2	292.2	134	458.41144571932	68.95250667018	0.44852578658137	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	45.56	35.07	40.315	149.044092	0.5808	1.5408	3.18	4.7208	T	F	13.56	280.56	134	457.92445926179	68.250935235264	0.35685502851047	93	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	45.59	36.68	41.135	150.09990666667	0.4873	1.4473	3.18	4.6273	T	F	13.59	299.59	134	458.29933846872	68.790687929549	0.35786211401143	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	47.05	38.01	42.53	150.08946533333	0.3294	1.3394	3.18	4.5194	T	F	15.05	295.05	134	458.29563607234	68.785346982697	0.40794322121745	93	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	40.16	37.95	39.055	149.3302	0.0626	1.1626	3.19	4.3526	T	F	8.16	286.16	134	458.02614453914	68.397135769259	0.19690508665529	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	37.83	36.26	37.045	149.91824933333	0.0468	1.0868	3.2	4.2868	T	F	5.83	281.83	134	458.2349105169	68.697775568111	0.14401159628847	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	227	-59	36.85	36.44	36.645	150.20785591667	0.0416	1.3716	3.19	4.5616	T	F	4.85	285.85	134	458.3376104798	68.84590975614	0.12492346474853	93	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L