Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 13, 2020

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DAY 226 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/14/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.29°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.56°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.43°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.169 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 250 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.31 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.88 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.21 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.09 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 146 in SWE DAY: 133 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 66.71 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-14 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	226	-60	39.29	31.56008	35.42504	146.1709675	0.31	0.88	3.21	4.09	T	F	7.29	250.29	133	456.3623959808	66.706932951131	0.16908231003786	95	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-13 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	226	-59	39.72	33.77	36.745	148.71387466667	0.0916	0.6616	3.21	3.8716	T	F	7.72	250.72	134	457.8070052428	68.082253599199	0.17919299561564	95	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-59	37.02	31.92	34.47	148.80055470727	0.2357	0.8057	3.21	4.0157	T	F	5.02	248.02	134	457.83784574448	68.126525412762	0.12188502228723	95	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-13 03:56:45	FORECAST	2020	226	-59	41.8	32.1	36.95	148.69097456693	0.4326	1.0026	3.21	4.2126	T	F	9.8	252.8	134	457.79885632118	68.070558102022	0.23326786448951	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-12 23:59:20	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	42.77	32.38	37.575	148.48296266667	0.3909	0.9609	3.21	4.1709	T	F	10.77	253.77	133	457.19113523812	67.885094265093	0.26128450474777	95	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	42.83	30.03	36.43	148.74888491627	0.4138	0.9838	3.21	4.1938	T	F	10.83	253.83	133	457.28614389742	68.020803992403	0.26307247181815	95	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	42.3	31.99	37.145	148.557036	0.3822	0.9522	3.21	4.1622	T	F	10.3	253.3	133	457.21760659539	67.922892442825	0.24749759581536	95	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	43.8	32.67	38.235	148.010588	0.447	1.017	3.21	4.227	T	F	11.8	254.8	133	457.0222069658	67.644125582065	0.29281756937684	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	43.8	32.82	38.31	147.899888	0.4875	1.1775	3.21	4.3875	T	F	11.8	254.8	133	456.98258966021	67.587673828695	0.29281756937684	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	43.45	32.6	38.025	147.86556416667	0.4714	1.1314	3.21	4.3414	T	F	11.45	254.45	133	456.97030358736	67.570171747358	0.28190645023618	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	44.98	33.48	39.23	149.53963466667	0.529	1.149	3.21	4.359	T	F	12.98	245.98	133	457.56828400666	68.424594025409	0.33096907962417	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	44.74	32.93	38.835	150.77907466667	0.5491	1.5091	3.21	4.7191	T	F	12.74	261.74	133	458.00937848533	69.058230276673	0.32304851205673	95	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	44.23	33.05	38.64	150.77617733333	0.4647	1.6247	3.21	4.8347	T	F	12.23	262.23	133	458.00834899475	69.056748048179	0.30648451710853	95	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	43.36	33.32	38.34	149.468332	0.5437	1.5037	3.21	4.7137	T	F	11.36	261.36	133	457.54286640011	68.388169059323	0.27913269146111	95	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	44.39	33.1	38.745	149.175428	0.5384	1.4484	3.21	4.6584	T	F	12.39	258.39	133	457.43840518531	68.238569877156	0.31164078001167	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	43.28	32.94	38.11	149.255445	0.5642	1.3542	3.21	4.5642	T	F	11.28	252.28	133	457.46695014563	68.279433216779	0.27667830695687	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	40.92	32.64	36.78	151.76678551503	0.5779	1.3379	3.21	4.5479	T	F	8.92	240.92	133	458.35989418763	69.563807749868	0.20936142502956	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	39.5	31.88	35.69	153.81051393822	0.6703	1.5403	3.22	4.7603	T	F	7.5	256.5	133	459.0823798127	70.611696778972	0.17397356849112	95	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 15:56:45	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	39.49	29.65	34.57	154.32601309464	0.6954	1.6654	3.22	4.8854	T	F	7.49	257.49	133	459.26402419699	70.876385812122	0.17373863583576	95	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	37.07	32.11	34.59	151.98698432666	0.7663	1.5863	3.22	4.8063	T	F	5.07	256.07	133	458.43791784239	69.676596633859	0.12281357061802	95	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	37.07	32.2	34.635	151.54187950493	0.6562	1.5262	3.22	4.7462	T	F	5.07	256.07	133	458.28015755712	69.448636416022	0.12281357061802	95	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	47.37	33.48	40.425	149.76214308333	0.586	1.346	3.21	4.556	T	F	15.37	276.37	133	457.64757306794	68.538281319541	0.41346638663274	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	47.5	34.1	40.8	151.14549333333	0.5396	1.4796	3.22	4.6996	T	F	15.5	270.5	133	458.13951459581	69.245722949078	0.41810382929142	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-09 19:59:23	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	47.52	34.22	40.87	153.398764	0.5821	1.5621	3.22	4.7821	T	F	15.52	283.52	133	458.93712217526	70.400387295402	0.41881831065374	95	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	46.97	33.72	40.345	153.40505066667	0.2994	1.2294	3.22	4.4494	T	F	14.97	278.97	133	458.93934113531	70.403612879788	0.39927552441848	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-09 11:57:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	40.5	35.98	38.24	151.19269066667	0.459	1.009	3.21	4.219	T	F	8.5	280.5	133	458.15626825	69.269878942516	0.19847846756981	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	40.08	34.17	37.125	150.91345333333	0.5542	1.2342	3.22	4.4542	T	F	8.08	272.08	133	458.05711805819	69.126981510076	0.18794332039488	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	46.44	36.16	41.3	150.53415958333	0.4731	1.0631	3.22	4.2831	T	F	14.44	286.44	133	457.92232765066	68.932952747336	0.38067862970597	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	45.86	36.16	41.01	151.48229733333	0.6082	1.3282	3.22	4.5482	T	F	13.86	271.86	133	458.25902607049	69.418130042894	0.36063999266923	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	45.88	36.21	41.045	153.709984	0.6082	1.2382	3.22	4.4582	T	F	13.88	280.88	133	459.04692875672	70.560096074445	0.36132501038891	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 15:56:59	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	48	36.8	42.4	153.27642266667	0.5879	1.2079	3.21	4.4179	T	F	16	286	133	458.89393316964	70.337620459679	0.43604091107719	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	48.3	38.25	43.275	151.74520933333	0.6962	1.2062	3.21	4.4162	T	F	16.3	285.3	133	458.35224669168	69.552757622632	0.44686912930594	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	48.33	38.28	43.305	151.48461333333	0.6962	1.1462	3.22	4.3662	T	F	16.33	283.33	133	458.25984752565	69.419315808616	0.44795427003644	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	41.04	37.85	39.445	151.45437241667	0.7082	1.2782	3.22	4.4982	T	F	9.04	289.04	133	458.24912108432	69.403833044314	0.21253404822653	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	48.04	37.43	42.735	149.953144	0.3744	0.9644	3.22	4.1844	T	F	16.04	280.04	133	457.71559895445	68.635893121062	0.43748208892949	95	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	48.07	37.48	42.775	150.93537733333	0.3744	0.9644	3.22	4.1844	T	F	16.07	299.07	133	458.06490526634	69.138199319532	0.4385635179311	95	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	46	38.29	42.145	150.91236266667	0.4022	1.0122	3.22	4.2322	T	F	14	293	133	458.05673065185	69.12642345804	0.3654443849171	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	40.01	37.63	38.82	149.80815066667	0.595	1.105	3.22	4.325	T	F	8.01	291.01	133	457.66396190539	68.561791759826	0.18622156677091	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	47.98	34.73	41.355	150.14828666667	0.385	1.055	3.22	4.275	T	F	15.98	288.98	133	457.78506586988	68.73564330195	0.4353206392165	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	37.97	36.3	37.135	150.31019191667	0.578	1.338	3.22	4.558	T	F	5.97	293.97	133	457.84267479588	68.818420316208	0.14037691822815	95	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	47.28	33.77	40.525	150.62519866667	0.5159	1.4959	2.64	4.1359	T	F	15.28	281.28	133	457.95469224354	68.979516499515	0.41026286377099	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	47.31	33.82	40.565	150.676476	0.3609	1.3409	2.78	4.1209	T	F	15.31	285.31	133	457.97291815298	69.005745410727	0.411330050893	95	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-05-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	49.26	35.81	42.535	150.39346666667	0.5095	1.6295	2.78	4.4095	T	F	17.26	296.26	133	457.87229628943	68.861001929595	0.48174674920973	95	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	40.08	36.79	38.435	150.07235530572	0.201	0.961	2.78	3.741	T	F	8.08	291.08	133	457.75803990498	68.696827208668	0.18794332039488	95	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	39.65	36.84	38.245	149.98740623724	0.1637	0.9237	2.85	3.7737	T	F	7.65	289.65	133	457.72779812288	68.653405203136	0.17752171225107	95	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	226	-60	39.32	38.31	38.815	149.3326525398	0.0236	0.3936	3.02	3.4136	F	F	7.32	303.32	133	457.49448737074	68.318865321409	0.16977561609195	95	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L