MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 12, 2020

[ Monday, May 11, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 13, 2020 ]

DAY 225 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/12/2020 12:00:03 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.287
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 249

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.48 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 149 in
SWE DAY: 132
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 67.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020225-6042.6932.8537.77148.555997333330.47820.56823.874.4382TF10.69248.69133457.2172354447467.9223624094820.28717679530344942123127.5WETL
2020-05-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020225-6042.5734.2738.42148.4592920.59930.68933.874.5593TF10.57248.57133457.182675075367.8730162563460.28349916540863942123127.5WETL
2020-05-12 04:00:05FORECAST2020225-6042.7133.9838.345148.396322833330.56640.65643.874.5264TF10.71248.71133457.1601667095267.8408876855660.28779191995897942123127.5WETL
2020-05-12 00:00:04FORECAST2020225-6142.8133.5138.16150.139874666670.61270.62273.874.4927TF10.81238.81132457.2486110147668.6512491492640.29087683120153942123127.5WETL
2020-05-11 20:00:02FORECAST2020225-6139.633.5236.56151.358049333330.71020.96023.874.8302TF7.6254.6132457.6831368366869.274026804360.20032308378227941123126WETL
2020-05-11 16:00:04FORECAST2020225-6140.6433.837.22151.340337333330.90721.15723.875.0272TF8.64255.64132457.6768285512369.2649656225940.22764757643783941124128WETL
2020-05-11 12:00:04FORECAST2020225-6140.7633.8837.32150.007181333330.71270.96273.874.8327TF8.76255.76132457.2011977309368.5834629738410.23092980369505941123126WETL
2020-05-11 08:00:04FORECAST2020225-614133.1837.09149.724718666670.68170.91173.874.7817TF9252132457.1002164269168.4392013069920.23757270632875941123126WETL
2020-05-11 04:00:03FORECAST2020225-6140.9533.3137.13149.762970333330.56880.78883.874.6588TF8.95246.95132457.1138957613968.4587348098670.23618019415368941123126WETL
2020-05-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020225-6141.6333.7437.685152.088726666670.61870.75873.874.6287TF9.63237.63132457.9431268421869.6479870471780.25549792803177942123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2020225-6142.4533.5437.995154.052373333330.68570.87573.874.7457TF10.45255.45132458.6394465473470.6544952449040.27984423310934942123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 15:56:45FORECAST2020225-6142.9333.5738.25153.969280.76720.97723.874.8472TF10.93255.93132458.6100515215270.6118594335320.29459897445685942123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 12:00:01FORECAST2020225-6143.6833.6838.68152.121109333330.68810.82813.874.6981TF11.68256.68132457.9546380977669.6645675717760.31834363530506942123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2020225-6142.7533.1437.945151.761566666670.75520.87523.874.7452TF10.75256.75132457.8267762478169.4805088253170.28902403100283942123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 04:00:02FORECAST2020225-6147.7436.8942.315150.580940416670.65660.75663.874.6266TF15.74266.74132457.4060955191468.8766400155870.45776326173822942123127.5WETL
2020-05-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020225-6146.9837.0141.995152.0008080.82230.95233.874.8223TF14.98260.98132457.9118691051169.6029740967660.43068458139734942123127.5WETL
2020-05-09 19:59:23FORECAST2020225-6147.1336.7241.925154.2458240.87090.99093.874.8609TF15.13274.13132458.7078574577570.7537714488450.43600742809499421241210WETL
2020-05-09 16:00:04FORECAST2020225-6143.1736.8440.005154.2335240.8160.9363.874.806TF11.17270.17132458.703508748970.7474586255080.30210835355733942123127.5WETL
2020-05-09 11:57:02FORECAST2020225-6149.6837.7443.71151.995142666670.51270.55273.874.4227TF17.68277.68132457.9098546688769.6000736888680.52748170384177943123129WETL
2020-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2020225-6145.6339.0142.32151.745480.62990.67993.884.5599TF13.63269.63132457.8210527202869.4722753991440.38345536623425942123127.5WETL
2020-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2020225-6151.1938.544.845151.529584916670.54060.59063.884.4706TF19.19278.19132457.7442160703869.361791059150.58127692136617943123129WETL
2020-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020225-6143.3238.4840.9152.402501333330.64070.72073.884.6007TF11.32264.32132458.0546263043369.8086707960860.30684487806467942123127.5WETL
2020-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2020225-6143.8138.5441.175154.634998666670.63470.63473.884.5147TF11.81272.81132458.845381416570.9535549435470.32254010845585942123127.5WETL
2020-05-08 15:56:59FORECAST2020225-6143.8838.6341.255154.3515520.610.623.874.49TF11.88275.88132458.7452323664270.8080385883570.32480918478974942123127.5WETL
2020-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2020225-6150.1438.6544.395152.954217333330.44670.50673.874.3767TF18.14275.14132458.2504625765570.0913408460340.54396920035462943123129WETL
2020-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020225-6150.1838.744.44152.6984320.44670.44673.884.3267TF18.18273.18132458.1597035260769.9602683340150.54539973592455943122126WETL
2020-05-08 04:00:03FORECAST2020225-6152.3839.0745.725152.449633750.56980.56983.884.4498TF20.38286.38132458.0713670783169.8328121424510.62267505689638943123129WETL
2020-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2020225-6146.638.242.4151.121097333330.59440.59443.884.4744TF14.6269.6132457.5987207839469.1528208231980.41725840548866942123127.5WETL
2020-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2020225-6146.6538.2542.45152.108360.59440.59443.884.4744TF14.65288.65132457.9501061308169.6580396053830.41901985922274942123127.5WETL
2020-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2020225-6143.5538.5641.055152.099394666670.60680.60683.884.4868TF11.55284.55132457.94691916369.6534491941570.3141703260767942123127.5WETL
2020-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2020225-6147.1238.2542.685150.721029333330.50360.51363.884.3936TF15.12289.12132457.4560779888368.9482509492660.43565219978466942123127.5WETL
2020-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2020225-6147.7237.0242.37151.1164880.64940.66943.884.5494TF15.72278.72132457.597078168169.1504633718240.4570475803817942123127.5WETL
2020-05-07 04:00:03FORECAST2020225-6150.1537.1943.67151.001178583330.75360.76363.884.6436TF18.15294.15132457.5559793996669.09149215720.54432688841992943123129WETL
2020-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2020225-6138.5333.8736.2151.387142666670.75310.98313.34.2831TF6.53271.53132457.6934980687269.2889108897360.17436833035441941123126WETL
2020-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2020225-6138.5733.9236.245151.355217333330.75310.98313.444.4231TF6.57275.57132457.6821282138969.2725779853960.1752984958941941123126WETL
2020-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2020225-6147.136.2141.655150.9998840.74731.11733.444.5573TF15.1285.1132457.5555179138569.0908301285510.434941899163319421241210WETL
2020-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2020225-6152.539.7146.105150.482136639050.3460.7663.434.196TF20.5288.5132457.3708325201268.8261401140080.6267809664132943123129WETL
2020-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2020225-6152.5339.7446.135150.251555570580.3460.7663.54.266TF20.53287.53132457.2885038649268.7083090502460.62780521974771943123129WETL
2020-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2020225-6153.0739.6246.345149.485555206470.36490.37493.684.0549TF21.07302.07132457.0146580671368.3170898986580.64608095698335943122126WETL
2020-05-05 23:59:24FORECAST2020225-6148.3937.2842.835151.533122666670.57410.58413.84.3841TF16.39306.39132457.7454754884869.3636012873080.48108424783939942123127.5WETL
2020-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2020225-6148.4238.9743.695153.067441702140.51120.52123.764.2812TF16.42295.42132458.2906185980970.1493725449010.48216278374128942123127.5WETL
2020-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2020225-6149.142.2845.69153.653783017540.30220.33223.764.0922TF17.1307.1132458.4983850664370.4500113728910.50662932036583943122126WETL
2020-05-05 11:57:09FORECAST2020225-6151.9241.8746.895152.700196422260.51960.53963.744.2796TF19.92307.92132458.1603297893269.9611723517150.60681072433307943123129WETL
2020-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2020225-6144.3141.8943.1153.022751474070.4710.4913.634.121TF12.31295.31132458.2747701938770.1264662662130.33888797059148942123127.5WETL
2020-05-05 03:59:25FORECAST2020225-6144.0941.4942.79153.231381905110.31250.33253.663.9925TF12.09300.09132458.3487409753670.2334109741210.33165521008357942122125DRYL