Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 11, 2020

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DAY 224 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/12/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.47°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.75°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.587 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 247 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.09 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.93 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 149 in SWE DAY: 131 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.35 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 68.05 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-12 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	224	-62	51.47006	35.74994	43.61	149.1237175	0.090000000000032	0.090000000000032	3.93	4.02	T	F	19.47006	247.47006	131	456.34823938941	68.052345932329	0.58663917391886	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-61	41.25	41.25	41.25	150.94943333333	0.0096	0.0096	3.93	3.9396	T	F	9.25	237.25	132	457.53753236088	69.065031238606	0.22589935151823	89	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-05-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	224	-61	60	40.14	50.07	150.789024	0.2469	0.2469	3.93	4.1769	T	F	28	256	132	457.48033146607	68.983012680965	0.84843737471592	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	224	-61	55.7	41.06	48.38	150.47376133333	0.2323	0.2323	3.93	4.1623	T	F	23.7	251.7	132	457.36784297248	68.821859644982	0.73267589156961	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-61	51.25	41.28	46.265	150.52770233333	0.2198	0.2198	3.93	4.1498	T	F	19.25	247.25	132	457.38709598403	68.849428635392	0.57847518453024	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-05-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	55.37	41.93	48.65	152.88926533333	0.1418	0.1418	3.93	4.0718	T	F	23.37	237.37	131	457.69565605077	69.976752599861	0.72225721870687	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	56.04	41.63	48.835	154.94431466667	0.177	0.187	3.93	4.117	T	F	24.04	254.04	131	458.42559150828	71.030439101912	0.7432003233004	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-10 15:56:44	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	56.36	41.34	48.85	154.87647333333	0.2049	0.2149	3.93	4.1449	T	F	24.36	254.36	131	458.40155562766	70.995616306126	0.75290523827359	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-10 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	56.06	41.2	48.63	153.094996	0.1301	0.1401	3.93	4.0701	T	F	24.06	254.06	131	457.76890151788	70.082128146805	0.74381263151597	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	56.86	40.77	48.815	152.68772933333	0.1138	0.1238	3.93	4.0538	T	F	24.86	254.86	131	457.62386687229	69.873549121469	0.76766823913002	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-05-10 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.04	41.83	50.935	151.87320575	0.1032	0.1032	3.93	4.0332	T	F	28.04	260.04	131	457.33335057752	69.456682048597	0.84932885915335	89	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.78	43.11	51.945	153.33533066667	0.1239	0.1339	3.93	4.0639	T	F	28.78	254.78	131	457.85441844986	70.205258650204	0.86519329525153	89	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-09 19:59:23	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.53	43.13	51.83	155.51775333333	0.1095	0.1195	3.93	4.0495	T	F	28.53	267.53	131	458.62859288103	71.324888379285	0.85996671391978	89	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	61.08	43.96	52.52	155.45242666667	0.1071	0.1171	3.93	4.0471	T	F	29.08	268.08	131	458.60548169622	71.291335012313	0.87128698373065	89	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-09 11:57:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.97	44.72	52.845	153.46808133333	0.043	0.043	3.93	3.973	T	F	28.97	268.97	131	457.90163199608	70.273284901841	0.86907514009331	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	61.57	45.1	53.335	153.12226	0.0475	0.0575	3.93	3.9875	T	F	29.57	264.57	131	457.77860533892	70.096094629144	0.88082507373722	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	61.36	44.54	52.95	152.98322625	0.0506	0.0606	3.93	3.9906	T	F	29.36	268.36	131	457.72911332899	70.02487650562	0.87680004251314	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.6	43.81	52.205	153.47189066667	0.0782	0.0882	3.93	4.0182	T	F	28.6	261.6	131	457.90298657267	70.275237091221	0.86144380449491	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.8	45.25	53.025	155.71264266667	0.0032	0.0132	3.93	3.9432	T	F	28.8	269.8	131	458.69751779973	71.425002681236	0.86560557924659	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-08 15:56:59	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.13	45.12	52.625	155.66716	0.0114	0.0114	3.93	3.9414	T	F	28.13	273.13	131	458.68143536853	71.401636388543	0.85132194291443	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	53.16	44.08	48.62	154.47646533333	0.0583	0.0583	3.93	3.9883	T	F	21.16	266.16	131	458.25975034724	70.790346438178	0.64784785252563	89	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	54.84	44.39	49.615	154.2256	0.0014	0.0014	3.94	3.9414	T	F	22.84	263.84	131	458.17074351242	70.661657820649	0.70512070444354	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	61.24	44.06	52.65	154.01217108333	0.0015	0.0015	3.94	3.9415	T	F	29.24	275.24	131	458.09497442656	70.552201573798	0.87445784443648	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	59.91	41.84	50.875	152.405928	0.0027	0.0027	3.94	3.9427	T	F	27.91	263.91	131	457.52342472614	69.729282127125	0.84641877319565	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	59.96	42.11	51.035	153.39827466667	0.0026	0.0026	3.94	3.9426	T	F	27.96	282.96	131	457.87680683399	70.237512178216	0.8475424002311	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	59.33	44.21	51.77	153.29992933333	0.0037	0.0037	3.94	3.9437	T	F	27.33	282.33	131	457.84182507088	70.18711942921	0.83298593428628	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	58.49	43.08	50.785	152.02105733333	0.0084	0.0084	3.94	3.9484	T	F	26.49	283.49	131	457.3861294908	69.532323014792	0.81223299357517	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	59.54	42.57	51.055	152.31100933333	0.019	0.019	3.94	3.959	T	F	27.54	271.54	131	457.48957677836	69.680699198591	0.83793434028941	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	59.97	43.64	51.805	152.27928525	0.01	0.01	3.94	3.95	T	F	27.97	284.97	131	457.47826216691	69.664462780189	0.84776647108395	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	58.65	37.86	48.255	152.100816	0.2285	0.2285	3.36	3.5885	F	F	26.65	273.65	131	457.4145928929	69.573132829318	0.81630381787059	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	58.7	37.91	48.305	152.07392	0.2285	0.2285	3.5	3.7285	T	F	26.7	277.7	131	457.40499518647	69.559370645588	0.81756461454295	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	60.01	38.11	49.06	152.03598133333	0.3748	0.3748	3.5	3.8748	T	F	28.01	279.01	131	457.39145584351	69.53995884265	0.84866057298791	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	61.28	42.82	52.05	151.96617263905	0.4076	0.4176	3.49	3.9076	T	F	29.28	277.28	131	457.36653949084	69.50424249959	0.87524199479475	89	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	61.33	42.87	52.1	151.74040223724	0.4076	0.4176	3.56	3.9776	T	F	29.33	276.33	131	457.28592650757	69.388750425689	0.87621737535967	89	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	64.21	46.95	55.58	151.13670720647	0.0103	0.0103	3.74	3.7503	T	F	32.21	290.21	131	457.0701455479	69.080076760491	0.92371013581421	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-05 23:59:24	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	63.02	45.39	54.205	152.85381466667	0.0099	0.0099	3.86	3.8699	T	F	31.02	299.02	131	457.68303082521	69.958597169835	0.90610473431456	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	56.24	45.43	50.835	154.25939370214	0.008	0.008	3.82	3.828	T	F	24.24	288.24	131	458.18273679862	70.678991183342	0.74928900883357	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	62.3	45.2	53.75	154.75061501754	0.0319	0.0319	3.82	3.8519	T	F	30.3	299.3	131	458.35695361912	70.931020470125	0.89409406946653	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-05 11:57:09	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	65.05	44.85	54.95	153.54129775559	0.019	0.019	3.8	3.819	T	F	33.05	297.05	131	457.92766503158	70.310807967136	0.93454422907999	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	65.1	44.89	54.995	153.5068248074	0.019	0.019	3.69	3.709	F	F	33.1	292.1	131	457.915408337	70.293140364198	0.93514953232296	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-05 03:59:25	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	63.9	44.8	54.35	153.47399257178	0.0193	0.0193	3.72	3.7393	T	F	31.9	296.9	131	457.90373399219	70.276314269306	0.9193852586538	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	62.17	45.45	53.81	152.84535258424	0.0551	0.0551	3.65	3.7051	T	F	30.17	298.17	131	457.68001701284	69.954263571091	0.89181247630795	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	62.2	50.51	56.355	154.58793693663	0.0389	0.0389	3.72	3.7589	T	F	30.2	312.2	131	458.29928219369	70.847540533862	0.89234210253876	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	66.02	49.13	57.575	154.23519945029	0.005	0.005	3.69	3.695	F	F	34.02	321.02	131	458.17415043398	70.666581475153	0.94553086008628	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	54.96	48.92	51.94	154.73273457876	0.0002	0.0002	3.65	3.6502	F	F	22.96	303.96	131	458.35061594432	70.921844200924	0.70904304847403	89	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	49.78	48.47	49.125	154.97080697008	0	0	3.56	3.56	F	F	17.78	288.78	131	458.43497648832	71.044038249703	0.52324097029408	89	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-05-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	224	-62	49.63	49.19	49.41	155.02613282203	0.0002	0.0002	3.6	3.6002	F	F	17.63	306.63	131	458.45457380527	71.072439651602	0.51756130466048	89	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L