Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 10, 2020

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DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/11/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.28°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.52°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.891 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 232 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.33 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.33 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 152 in SWE DAY: 130 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.94 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 69.58 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-11 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	223	-63	60.76994	48.27992	54.52493	152.27659833333	0	0	4.33	4.33	T	F	28.76994	231.76994	130	456.94268243501	69.581677314513	0.89145664317077	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-62	47.29	47.29	47.29	154.91641466667	0.0004	0.0004	4.33	4.3304	T	F	15.29	218.29	131	458.41570716462	71.016117780828	0.49199388957529	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-05-10 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	223	-62	62.56	48.3	55.43	155.237328	0.0079	0.0079	4.33	4.3379	T	F	30.56	233.56	131	458.52935725729	71.180872230178	0.91941441241021	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-62	62.55	48.96	55.755	154.86313466667	0.0087	0.0087	4.33	4.3387	T	F	30.55	233.55	131	458.39682931054	70.988769908291	0.91927494820258	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-10 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-62	64.84	50.44	57.64	154.29734441667	0.0035	0.0035	4.33	4.3335	T	F	32.84	235.84	131	458.19620416925	70.698457525111	0.94671787200256	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.36	50.14	58.25	155.80118	0.0063	0.0063	4.33	4.3363	T	F	34.36	230.36	130	458.19896222768	71.387938989848	0.96043484146696	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 19:59:23	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.14	48.74	57.44	157.96069733333	0.0096	0.0096	4.33	4.3396	T	F	34.14	243.14	130	458.96314896692	72.498139061118	0.95864785140256	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.23	48.78	57.505	157.95577733333	0.0074	0.0074	4.33	4.3374	T	F	34.23	243.23	130	458.96141269003	72.495606707459	0.95938662087816	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 11:57:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.63	50	58.315	155.988324	0	0	4.33	4.33	T	F	34.63	243.63	130	458.26535274318	71.484044321677	0.96254183948084	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.66	49.9	58.28	155.69399866667	0.0006	0.0106	4.33	4.3406	T	F	34.66	238.66	130	458.16092475776	71.332906408353	0.96277020287454	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.27	49.82	58.045	155.50259425	0.0015	0.0115	4.33	4.3415	T	F	34.27	243.27	130	458.09297168332	71.234645504448	0.95971151701073	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.36	49.12	57.74	155.926752	0.0008	0.0108	4.33	4.3408	T	F	34.36	237.36	130	458.24351317081	71.452422633794	0.96043484146696	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	61.3	49.03	55.165	158.190464	0.0009	0.0109	4.33	4.3409	T	F	29.3	245.3	130	459.04420987589	72.61641655678	0.9003765855167	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 15:56:59	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.16	48.88	57.02	158.07249333333	0.0018	0.0018	4.33	4.3318	T	F	33.16	249.16	130	459.00259612978	72.555684816707	0.94988090391143	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.09	48.42	56.755	156.522584	0.0005	0.0005	4.33	4.3305	T	F	33.09	249.09	130	458.45471129728	71.758516059224	0.94920205870778	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	64.89	48.45	56.67	156.37700666667	0.0009	0.0109	4.33	4.3409	T	F	32.89	244.89	130	458.403139577	71.683710813654	0.94722223985512	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	64.49	47.93	56.21	156.26159508333	0.0015	0.0115	4.33	4.3415	T	F	32.49	250.49	130	458.36224071667	71.624414860358	0.94307992006464	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	64.78	48.44	56.61	154.717508	0.0008	0.0108	4.33	4.3408	T	F	32.78	239.78	130	457.81390166438	70.831825993271	0.94610761281224	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.17	48	56.585	155.710128	0.001	0.001	4.34	4.341	T	F	33.17	259.17	130	458.16664954173	71.341187645473	0.94997729058316	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.3	48.1	56.7	155.70990933333	0.001	0.001	4.34	4.341	T	F	33.3	259.3	130	458.16657193194	71.341075375086	0.95121695698499	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	67.35	48.36	57.855	154.35160666667	0.0002	0.0002	4.34	4.3402	T	F	35.35	261.35	130	457.68364661192	70.644206199608	0.9677169717607	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	59.11	48.12	53.615	154.64237866667	0.0008	0.0008	4.34	4.3408	T	F	27.11	248.11	130	457.78716669262	70.79329638042	0.85986341788445	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.61	48.3	57.455	154.66089325	0	0	4.34	4.34	T	F	34.61	260.61	130	457.79375562974	70.802791169967	0.96238896455495	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.85	46.37	56.11	154.21909466667	0.0003	0.0003	3.76	3.7603	T	F	33.85	250.85	130	457.63644458119	70.576278169784	0.95619324354836	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.9	46.14	56.02	154.197392	0.0003	0.0003	3.9	3.9003	T	F	33.9	254.9	130	457.62871237138	70.565153951985	0.95662461818546	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	66.39	48.53	57.46	154.11681333333	0.0033	0.0033	3.9	3.9033	T	F	34.39	255.39	130	457.60000013496	70.523853802133	0.96067359662208	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	68.08	48.27	58.175	154.33903397238	0.0079	0.0079	3.89	3.8979	T	F	36.08	252.08	130	457.67916878116	70.637760778968	0.97234825539117	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	68.13	48.3	58.215	154.11807423724	0.0079	0.0079	3.96	3.9679	T	F	36.13	251.13	130	457.60044947248	70.524500042796	0.97264414339032	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-05-06 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	67.81	48.43	58.12	153.87014987313	0.0012	0.0012	4.14	4.1412	T	F	35.81	261.81	130	457.51207110904	70.397450950316	0.97070413820828	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-05 23:59:24	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	68.75	49.18	58.965	155.4835	0	0	4.26	4.26	T	F	36.75	271.75	130	458.0861909626	71.224844272533	0.97609932584705	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	67.19	48.74	57.965	156.68850703547	0	0	4.22	4.22	T	F	35.19	268.19	130	458.51346736658	71.843790657328	0.966620933271	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	68.99	49.82	59.405	157.35061635087	0	0	4.22	4.22	T	F	36.99	272.99	130	458.74768473207	72.184230942127	0.97733478293189	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 11:57:09	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	70.03	50.13	60.08	156.34170708892	0.0004	0.0004	4.2	4.2004	T	F	38.03	268.03	130	458.39063159839	71.665573857662	0.9820855531474	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	70.09	50.17	60.13	156.3127008074	0.0004	0.0004	4.09	4.0904	T	F	38.09	263.09	130	458.38035273378	71.650670932869	0.9823316164664	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 03:59:25	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	69.72	50.17	59.945	156.09908590511	0.0004	0.0004	4.12	4.1204	T	F	37.72	268.72	130	458.30463136454	71.540934022083	0.9807672727302	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	69.3	51.2	60.25	155.60891658424	0.0006	0.0006	4.05	4.0506	T	F	37.3	272.3	130	458.13072269396	71.289225412364	0.97885069715677	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	69.35	51.25	60.3	157.0174876033	0.0006	0.0006	4.12	4.1206	T	F	37.35	286.35	130	458.62989158721	72.012913316798	0.97908699997273	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	70.35	51.44	60.895	156.27546878363	0.001	0.001	4.09	4.091	T	F	38.35	291.35	130	458.36715782886	71.631542464724	0.98336489489405	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	68.62	50.34	59.48	155.92638124543	0.0007	0.0007	4.05	4.0507	T	F	36.62	284.62	130	458.24338165391	71.452232230962	0.97540686685604	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	67.61	50.61	59.11	155.71536697008	0	0	3.96	3.96	T	F	35.61	274.61	130	458.16850895881	71.343877506654	0.9694347517704	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	68.78	50.44	59.61	155.4068314887	0.0007	0.0007	4	4.0007	T	F	36.78	292.78	130	458.05896124719	71.18549180243	0.97625678134757	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2020-05-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	71.1	50.96	61.03	150.85627461239	0.0016	0.0016	3.51	3.5116	F	F	39.1	277.1	130	456.43324330025	68.855818693526	0.98606106460073	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-05-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	71.14	51	61.07	151.82418956383	0.0016	0.0016	3.63	3.6316	F	F	39.14	290.14	130	456.78061270466	69.350346332356	0.98619363282383	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	73.13	51.67	62.4	152.38638321592	0.0006	0.0006	3.58	3.5806	F	F	41.13	292.13	130	456.98198341085	69.637831646819	0.99155449266891	86	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	DRY	L
2020-05-03 12:01:29	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	65.49	52.11	58.8	153.54505596125	0.0004	0.0004	3.8	3.8004	T	F	33.49	288.49	130	457.39609951162	70.230909695971	0.95298461746772	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	53.22	52.14	52.68	153.86526905417	0	0	3.78	3.78	T	F	21.22	276.22	130	457.51033066977	70.394950123564	0.70248850055498	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	223	-63	51.49	51.15	51.32	155.1298362044	0	0	3.83	3.83	T	F	19.49	269.49	130	457.96053894481	71.043343394587	0.64454454916442	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L