Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 7, 2020

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DAY 190 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/07/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.31°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.604 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 42 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.52 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.58 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 201 in SWE DAY: 97 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 92.10 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -95 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-07 08:59:44	FORECAST	2020	190	-95	43.31	24.38	33.845	203.69538795593	0.0132	0.0632	4.52	4.5832	T	F	11.31	42.31	98	458.20612705983	93.334474815236	0.60364165425902	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 04:58:39	FORECAST	2020	190	-95	40.99	28.39	34.69	203.32094399261	0.0083	0.0583	4.52	4.5783	T	F	8.99	39.99	98	458.07320273883	93.135875998577	0.50952058928938	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.69	26.9	36.295	211.58308081241	0.01	0.08	4.52	4.6	T	F	13.69	48.69	97	460.45571063495	97.42463783381	0.69423362810282	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.63	24.9	35.265	206.58284931011	0.0067	0.0767	4.52	4.5967	T	F	13.63	48.63	97	458.69895504045	94.759337107828	0.69206336366974	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.49	25.22	35.355	206.57706551211	0.0054	0.0754	4.52	4.5954	T	F	13.49	48.49	97	458.69691004419	94.7562616364	0.68697333856544	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 14:28:37	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	39.21	26.97	33.09	206.73780012868	0.0033	0.0733	4.52	4.5933	T	F	7.21	42.21	97	458.75373032294	94.841737007789	0.43666091781856	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-04-06 12:59:44	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	44.87	26.79	35.83	211.30935489371	0.0013	0.0713	4.52	4.5913	T	F	12.87	47.87	97	460.36011736401	97.27839941898	0.66401219352805	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.9	27.47	36.685	211.25872456858	0.0002	0.0602	4.52	4.5802	T	F	13.9	47.9	97	460.34242845663	97.251354300549	0.70177565104883	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-06 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	44.74	27.43	36.085	211.43441221157	0.0007	0.0707	4.52	4.5907	T	F	12.74	43.74	97	460.40379936275	97.345206698238	0.65911542635014	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.48	27.7	36.59	211.28439652397	0.0008	0.0608	4.52	4.5808	T	F	13.48	48.48	97	460.35139784867	97.265067283424	0.68660838370398	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.3	27.73	36.515	211.28260948373	0.0005	0.0605	4.52	4.5805	T	F	13.3	48.3	97	460.35077350284	97.26411270353	0.68000825009574	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 17:00:45	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.5	27.64	36.57	211.24790830322	0.0005	0.0605	4.52	4.5805	T	F	13.5	48.5	97	460.33864924236	97.24557676358	0.68733811047587	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 12:59:45	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.03	27.17	36.1	211.12800236595	0.0002	0.0602	4.52	4.5802	T	F	13.03	48.03	97	460.29674702815	97.181532695598	0.67000093350329	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	43.83	26.85	35.34	211.25232243571	0.0009	0.0909	4.52	4.6109	T	F	11.83	46.83	97	460.34019155734	97.247934576987	0.62412599124506	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-05 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	43.47	26.61	35.04	211.53248576551	0.0006	0.0906	4.52	4.6106	T	F	11.47	42.47	97	460.43804633926	97.397604483162	0.60997797715707	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-05 00:59:46	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	42.31	26.51	34.41	211.44935622361	0.0011	0.0811	4.52	4.6011	T	F	10.31	43.31	97	460.40901831569	97.353190522398	0.56348172372248	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	36.47	23.6	30.035	211.64839959375	0.0048	0.1148	4.52	4.6348	T	F	4.47	38.47	97	460.47851208485	97.459540130069	0.32938452835926	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-04 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	44.22	24.64	34.43	211.6124613237	0.0031	0.1831	4.52	4.7031	T	F	12.22	46.22	97	460.46596723831	97.440336683099	0.63926641073326	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	40.8	24.44	32.62	211.61467624713	0.0034	0.1534	4.52	4.6734	T	F	8.8	42.8	97	460.46674042702	97.441520198035	0.50171557906554	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.42	24.77	35.095	211.48568009257	0.0039	0.1639	4.52	4.6839	T	F	13.42	47.42	97	460.4217030097	97.372596990386	0.68441482910327	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 05:00:42	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.13	25.17	35.15	211.82954511888	0.0054	0.2054	4.52	4.7254	T	F	13.13	46.13	97	460.54172649144	97.556344430945	0.67372202920411	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 00:58:44	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	44.73	28.7	36.715	211.64072426687	0.0066	0.1766	4.53	4.7066	T	F	12.73	46.73	97	460.47583298144	97.455438799581	0.65873762681733	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	45.85	25.56	35.705	210.71771386869	0.0012	0.1812	4.54	4.7212	T	F	13.85	44.85	97	460.15327141984	96.962445382785	0.69998761851458	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-03 17:00:01	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	47.48	30.1	38.79	210.38194587427	0.0007	0.1907	4.55	4.7407	T	F	15.48	54.48	97	460.03574391556	96.783214976672	0.75560853289119	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-03 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	47.4	30.56	38.98	210.15978201187	0.0007	0.1807	4.53	4.7107	T	F	15.4	53.4	97	459.95792568409	96.6646573964	0.75301423520646	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-03 08:58:48	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	50.12	30.67	40.395	210.94018180809	0.0016	0.1816	4.53	4.7116	T	F	18.12	46.12	97	460.23108577894	97.081228907944	0.83253359939872	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-03 04:58:53	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	49.56	28.11	38.835	211.23840639452	0.0016	0.1816	4.61	4.7916	T	F	17.56	56.56	97	460.33532917999	97.240501343077	0.81767009724295	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-03 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	49.59	28.12	38.855	215.01190541972	0.0016	0.1716	4.52	4.6916	T	F	17.59	64.59	97	461.6475449295	99.259718267628	0.81848661646292	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	50.43	31.7	41.065	213.91774313129	0.0017	0.1717	4.49	4.6617	T	F	18.43	61.43	97	461.26834921144	98.673484241208	0.84041679232538	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	50.98	31.35	41.165	213.62020187183	0.0017	0.2017	4.45	4.6517	T	F	18.98	66.98	97	461.16505015619	98.514171110598	0.85379709457531	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-04-02 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	48.44	26.75	37.595	214.52870206298	0.0021	0.2621	4.42	4.6821	T	F	16.44	57.44	97	461.48021465034	99.000751476684	0.78556698543671	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:57:18	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	48.15	26.48	37.315	215.12486534205	0.0021	0.2121	4.44	4.6521	T	F	16.15	54.15	97	461.68663263127	99.320274675027	0.77674908316096	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	48.16	26.48	37.32	204.46093321395	0.0021	0.2121	4.48	4.6921	T	F	16.16	47.16	97	457.9466823496	93.632206035432	0.77705653792472	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	47.61	25.51	36.56	205.00972439466	0.0021	0.1821	4.59	4.7721	T	F	15.61	47.61	97	458.14163151728	93.923489611081	0.75979280279331	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	47.65	25.52	36.585	205.2562012918	0.0021	0.1721	4.64	4.8121	T	F	15.65	52.65	97	458.22910004542	94.054364396683	0.76107238382331	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	44.89	28.27	36.58	204.65680096443	0.0293	0.2493	4.65	4.8993	T	F	12.89	43.89	97	458.01629237994	93.736149188067	0.6647631049703	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-01 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	47.08	28.04	37.56	204.95311540555	0.0146	0.2546	4.68	4.9346	T	F	15.08	51.08	97	458.12153465939	93.893435762813	0.74249159540324	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 12:59:48	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	47.12	28.05	37.585	205.70967218675	0.0146	0.2546	4.71	4.9646	T	F	15.12	51.12	97	458.3898826192	94.295232487319	0.74381952388454	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 08:58:59	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	37.7	25.76	31.73	207.70896975321	0.0438	0.3538	4.78	5.1338	T	F	5.7	29.7	97	459.09654928261	95.358471268745	0.37640233675865	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	43.25	25.84	34.545	207.67472739813	0.0386	0.2886	4.87	5.1586	T	F	11.25	36.25	97	459.08447624669	95.340243457243	0.60125836028485	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-01 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	43.28	25.86	34.57	207.63352632372	0.0386	0.2886	4.86	5.1486	T	F	11.28	41.28	97	459.06994834077	95.318312203242	0.60245048519019	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-31 20:59:49	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	40.28	27.37	33.825	205.56267038245	0.1278	0.3278	4.83	5.1578	T	F	8.28	46.28	97	458.33778196602	94.217138398102	0.48035998447859	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 16:58:57	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	39.83	26.7	33.265	205.01825377034	0.0731	0.2631	4.85	5.1131	T	F	7.83	50.83	97	458.14465929562	93.928018022995	0.46192236489841	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	34.7	26.72	30.71	206.09279409231	0.0502	0.2402	4.99	5.2302	T	F	2.7	45.7	97	458.5255780142	94.498817535741	0.26634508574997	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	29.17	27.61	28.39	214.83504589832	0.2636	0.9936	5.06	6.0536	T	F	-2.83	28.17	97	461.58632341773	99.164918977485	0.11628996408994	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 05:00:34	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	28.89	28.32	28.605	216.35068269284	0.2465	1.1865	5.38	6.5665	T	T	-3.11	31.89	97	462.11008374674	99.977832097852	0.11073752163647	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	190	-96	28.91	28.91	28.91	215.71990403195	0.0494	0.9894	5.54	6.5294	T	T	-3.09	36.91	97	461.89234977995	99.639373367624	0.11112773121582	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L