Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 6, 2020
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Sunday, April 5, 2020 |
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Tuesday, April 7, 2020 ]
DAY 189
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/07/2020 05:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.01°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.423
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 45
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.58 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 204 in
SWE DAY: 96
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 93.03 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -97
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2020-04-07 04:58:39 | OBSERVATION | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 38.96006 | 27.05 | 33.00503 | 203.53469791667 | 0 | 0.07 | 4.51 | 4.58 | T | F | 6.96006 | 44.96006 | 96 | 457.08294589347 | 93.032239315288 | 0.42300616542383 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WET | L |
2020-04-06 12:59:44 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -96 | 42.63 | 28.97 | 35.8 | 211.72755793767 | 0.015 | 0.085 | 4.51 | 4.595 | T | F | 10.63 | 48.63 | 97 | 460.50613957314 | 97.501840347125 | 0.56874958988572 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-04-06 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -96 | 42.24 | 27.63 | 34.935 | 211.71399656054 | 0.0119 | 0.0819 | 4.51 | 4.5919 | T | F | 10.24 | 48.24 | 97 | 460.50140683674 | 97.494593263155 | 0.55335738526676 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-04-06 05:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -96 | 38.88 | 27.45 | 33.165 | 211.842120204 | 0.0165 | 0.0865 | 4.51 | 4.5965 | T | F | 6.88 | 44.88 | 97 | 460.54611374301 | 97.563065187033 | 0.41987090089791 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WET | L |
2020-04-06 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.78 | 27.29 | 35.035 | 211.70599207208 | 0.0139 | 0.0839 | 4.51 | 4.5939 | T | F | 10.78 | 48.78 | 96 | 459.97549473725 | 97.379568442193 | 0.57464329082693 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-04-05 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.77 | 26.38 | 34.575 | 211.70524042178 | 0.0113 | 0.0813 | 4.51 | 4.5913 | T | F | 10.77 | 48.77 | 96 | 459.97523141267 | 97.379166954283 | 0.57425088068327 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-04-05 17:00:45 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.79 | 25.59 | 34.19 | 211.68509317565 | 0.0076 | 0.0776 | 4.51 | 4.5876 | T | F | 10.79 | 48.79 | 96 | 459.96817306925 | 97.368405573996 | 0.57503562705083 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-04-05 12:59:45 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.71 | 27.06 | 34.885 | 211.57161952765 | 0.0092 | 0.0792 | 4.51 | 4.5892 | T | F | 10.71 | 48.71 | 96 | 459.92841220548 | 97.307799037094 | 0.57189488876103 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-04-05 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.49 | 27.69 | 35.09 | 211.59292367451 | 0.0097 | 0.1097 | 4.51 | 4.6197 | T | F | 10.49 | 49.49 | 96 | 459.93587799558 | 97.31917712789 | 0.56323493095663 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-05 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.36 | 26.8 | 34.58 | 211.85172141289 | 0.0103 | 0.1103 | 4.51 | 4.6203 | T | F | 10.36 | 45.36 | 96 | 460.02653839367 | 97.457414054313 | 0.55810312656377 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-05 00:59:46 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.38 | 26.73 | 34.055 | 211.72996967054 | 0.0037 | 0.1037 | 4.51 | 4.6137 | T | F | 9.38 | 47.38 | 96 | 459.98389451141 | 97.39237603384 | 0.51916305984159 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-04 21:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.62 | 27.66 | 34.64 | 211.78224356204 | 0.0047 | 0.1347 | 4.51 | 4.6447 | T | F | 9.62 | 47.62 | 96 | 460.00220520107 | 97.420299060969 | 0.52873077214287 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-04 17:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.11 | 28.26 | 35.185 | 211.96813624903 | 0.0061 | 0.1961 | 4.51 | 4.7061 | T | F | 10.11 | 48.11 | 96 | 460.06730067856 | 97.519608273956 | 0.54820754976608 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-04 13:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 42.25 | 28.12 | 35.185 | 211.91696799063 | 0.0099 | 0.1699 | 4.51 | 4.6799 | T | F | 10.25 | 48.25 | 96 | 460.0493857601 | 97.49227095623 | 0.55375316531463 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-04 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.63 | 28.18 | 34.905 | 211.92911741067 | 0.0116 | 0.1816 | 4.51 | 4.6916 | T | F | 9.63 | 47.63 | 96 | 460.0536396992 | 97.498761823017 | 0.52912910562698 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-04 05:00:42 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 40.55 | 28.01 | 34.28 | 212.24398427686 | 0.021 | 0.221 | 4.51 | 4.731 | T | F | 8.55 | 46.55 | 96 | 460.16383988514 | 97.66700679736 | 0.48602441751817 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-04 00:58:44 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.86 | 28.85 | 35.355 | 212.04930627565 | 0.0232 | 0.2032 | 4.51 | 4.7132 | T | F | 9.86 | 47.86 | 96 | 460.09571497438 | 97.562977180717 | 0.5382819302837 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-03 21:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.81 | 29.48 | 33.645 | 211.19304718228 | 0.0128 | 0.2228 | 4.51 | 4.7328 | T | F | 5.81 | 44.81 | 96 | 459.79567854103 | 97.105650432323 | 0.37853041917041 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-03 17:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 45.27 | 26.15 | 35.71 | 210.97504124529 | 0.0061 | 0.2361 | 4.51 | 4.7461 | T | F | 13.27 | 53.27 | 96 | 459.71918415669 | 96.989273838706 | 0.66912086842709 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-03 13:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 44.62 | 28.78 | 36.7 | 210.75755312731 | 0.0073 | 0.2073 | 4.51 | 4.7173 | T | F | 12.62 | 51.62 | 96 | 459.64282924728 | 96.873198004673 | 0.64520742176203 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-03 08:58:48 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 40.28 | 25.99 | 33.135 | 211.68190568513 | 0.0064 | 0.2064 | 4.51 | 4.7164 | T | F | 8.28 | 42.28 | 96 | 459.96705633749 | 97.366703037899 | 0.4752540780579 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-03 04:58:53 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 45.51 | 28.59 | 37.05 | 211.93142207845 | 0.0072 | 0.2072 | 4.59 | 4.7972 | T | F | 13.51 | 52.51 | 96 | 460.05444662961 | 97.499993107728 | 0.67778520158019 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-03 01:00:04 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 45.52 | 29.32 | 37.42 | 215.70658116296 | 0.0067 | 0.2067 | 4.49 | 4.6967 | T | F | 13.52 | 60.52 | 96 | 461.36991737713 | 99.520527528859 | 0.67814417066053 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 46.09 | 26.58 | 36.335 | 214.70451073778 | 0.0038 | 0.2038 | 4.47 | 4.6738 | T | F | 14.09 | 57.09 | 96 | 461.02197035217 | 98.983496583831 | 0.69832242136124 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 17:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 46.15 | 29.42 | 37.785 | 214.43750711069 | 0.0038 | 0.2338 | 4.43 | 4.6638 | T | F | 14.15 | 62.15 | 96 | 460.92910966399 | 98.840489231098 | 0.70041301110946 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 13:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 40.87 | 26.65 | 33.76 | 215.13104236623 | 0.0695 | 0.2795 | 4.41 | 4.6895 | T | F | 8.87 | 54.87 | 96 | 461.1701823865 | 99.212022045033 | 0.498801849612 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 09:57:18 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.24 | 26.88 | 34.06 | 215.69635967816 | 0.0698 | 0.2298 | 4.43 | 4.6598 | T | F | 9.24 | 52.24 | 96 | 461.3663726591 | 99.515047060483 | 0.51357643657399 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.25 | 26.89 | 34.07 | 205.03281859372 | 0.0698 | 0.2298 | 4.47 | 4.6998 | T | F | 9.25 | 45.25 | 96 | 457.61776847631 | 93.826660909266 | 0.51397558248183 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 05:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 39.22 | 25.02 | 32.12 | 205.54035587778 | 0.0681 | 0.2181 | 4.56 | 4.7781 | T | F | 7.22 | 46.22 | 96 | 457.79849605476 | 94.096065799408 | 0.43321845107355 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-02 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 39.24 | 25.03 | 32.135 | 205.78844839574 | 0.0681 | 0.2181 | 4.6 | 4.8181 | T | F | 7.24 | 51.24 | 96 | 457.88675390639 | 94.227804627359 | 0.4340061341951 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-01 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 38.9 | 26.86 | 32.88 | 204.93294829167 | 0.1296 | 0.2796 | 4.6 | 4.8796 | T | F | 6.9 | 44.9 | 96 | 457.5821784892 | 93.773664923516 | 0.42065366143849 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-01 17:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.83 | 26.44 | 32.135 | 205.39734955503 | 0.1505 | 0.3105 | 4.62 | 4.9305 | T | F | 5.83 | 49.83 | 96 | 457.74759689286 | 94.020143166979 | 0.37929211080082 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-01 12:59:48 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.87 | 26.46 | 32.165 | 206.15341709934 | 0.1505 | 0.3005 | 4.66 | 4.9605 | T | F | 5.87 | 49.87 | 96 | 458.01648891399 | 94.421664277459 | 0.38081689739229 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-01 08:58:59 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 35.57 | 24.82 | 30.195 | 207.5927063373 | 0.2247 | 0.3847 | 4.72 | 5.1047 | T | F | 3.57 | 37.57 | 96 | 458.52694068552 | 95.186848545469 | 0.29680978662981 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-01 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.45 | 26.51 | 31.98 | 207.71481882543 | 0.164 | 0.304 | 4.83 | 5.134 | T | F | 5.45 | 39.45 | 96 | 458.57016272744 | 95.25181826968 | 0.3649032369783 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-04-01 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.47 | 26.53 | 32 | 207.66514471057 | 0.164 | 0.304 | 4.82 | 5.124 | T | F | 5.47 | 44.47 | 96 | 458.55258205907 | 95.225388310704 | 0.36565602546386 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-03-31 20:59:49 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.47 | 25.31 | 33.39 | 204.92981677583 | 0.154 | 0.224 | 4.82 | 5.044 | T | F | 9.47 | 52.47 | 96 | 457.58106238975 | 93.77200327562 | 0.52275254316735 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-03-31 16:58:57 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.85 | 27.62 | 34.735 | 204.71390634384 | 0.1252 | 0.1952 | 4.85 | 5.0452 | T | F | 9.85 | 56.85 | 96 | 457.50408862601 | 93.657449150911 | 0.53788436731771 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-03-31 13:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 41.87 | 27.63 | 34.75 | 205.6842118006 | 0.1252 | 0.1952 | 4.99 | 5.1852 | T | F | 9.87 | 56.87 | 96 | 457.84967895832 | 94.172450339698 | 0.53867945500227 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-03-31 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 32.8 | 27.86 | 30.33 | 212.36668758029 | 0.4286 | 0.7586 | 5.04 | 5.7986 | T | F | 0.8 | 44.8 | 96 | 460.20676092817 | 97.732585420369 | 0.20869511456104 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
2020-03-31 05:00:34 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 38.31 | 27.51 | 32.91 | 214.18396958876 | 0.6559 | 0.9559 | 5.37 | 6.3259 | T | T | 6.31 | 49.31 | 96 | 460.84087401512 | 98.704727745311 | 0.39770689062379 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-03-31 01:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 38.33 | 27.52 | 32.925 | 215.25030403195 | 0.6559 | 0.9559 | 5.53 | 6.4859 | T | T | 6.33 | 54.33 | 96 | 461.21159494327 | 99.275936034601 | 0.3984794577921 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.66 | 27.05 | 32.355 | 207.24709694181 | 0.2434 | 0.4634 | 5.11 | 5.5734 | T | F | 5.66 | 51.66 | 96 | 458.40453862569 | 95.003009855123 | 0.37283294943455 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 16:59:49 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.88 | 26.98 | 32.43 | 207.57260334102 | 0.1932 | 0.6132 | 4.99 | 5.6032 | T | F | 5.88 | 51.88 | 96 | 458.51982389095 | 95.176153528508 | 0.38119838438244 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 13:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 37.89 | 28.02 | 32.955 | 207.57326120937 | 0.1135 | 0.5335 | 5.13 | 5.6635 | T | F | 5.89 | 55.89 | 96 | 458.52005679302 | 95.176503518432 | 0.38157998681615 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 09:28:45 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 34.83 | 28.75 | 31.79 | 216.3241563486 | 0.1576 | 1.0976 | 5.18 | 6.2776 | T | T | 2.83 | 50.83 | 96 | 461.58391617106 | 99.851751249788 | 0.27169748980755 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 09:00:34 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 31.67 | 28.76 | 30.215 | 210.38157668561 | 0.1392 | 1.0792 | 5.16 | 6.2392 | T | T | -0.33 | 47.67 | 96 | 459.51073332752 | 96.672592581406 | 0.17770829035046 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 32 | 31.21 | 31.605 | 208.52327685832 | 0.0845 | 0.9145 | 5.57 | 6.4845 | T | T | 0 | 57 | 96 | 458.85598067426 | 95.682152696233 | 0.18644318529857 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
2020-03-30 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 189 | -97 | 31.26 | 31.26 | 31.26 | 209.81307210672 | 0.011 | 0.841 | 6 | 6.841 | T | T | -0.74 | 59.26 | 96 | 459.3107546508 | 96.369400484942 | 0.16722117021749 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |